tcpip: (Default)
[personal profile] tcpip
In late July, Dr. Gigi Foster, Professor, Director of Education, School of Economics, with a PhD in economics, University of Maryland, and a BA, magna cum laude in Ethics, Politics, and Economics, Yale University, made the suggestion that Australia "... can follow in the footsteps of many other countries in the world, some of which have not had lockdowns as strict as we have had here, such as again, Sweden - and look at the death tolls in those countries.." Indeed, Dr. Foster is quite correct, one should look at the empirical data. Because the argument that Australia should follow "the Swedish model" when managing COVID-19 has become a bit of a talking point among some in the community who feel that the economic damage is too much compared to the lives saved. Some, such as commentator Andrew Bolt, argued that all that the movement restrictions was doing was saving a few months off the lives of the elderly. The Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has confirmed that as far as the National Cabinet is concerned, Australia will be following a path of suppression, rather than elimination.

Let us look at the evidence, and how well suppression has worked in Sweden, which has community social distancing, minimal movement restrictions, no mandatory masks, and an excellent health-case system. First, with any sort of comparative analysis, one should compare the nation in question with those who have similar conditions to ensure a close correlation for policy comparison. The following is as of August 5, 8.38am AEST (Denmark is August 10, 11.02pm, because I didn't include them originally), from world meters.

Come with me if you want to live )

From the available evidence at hand, an elimination strategy first and strong movement restrictions second seems to be the approach that allows the lowest number of infections and deaths, the best secondary effects (reduced suicide, reduced associated disease deaths), and allows for the most rapid economic recovery. With the prospect that COVID-19 will be with us in some form perhaps forever, it is time that we move away from a society that "fluctuates between being half-complacent and half-paranoid", as was warned in April and adopts, with sober senses, the best possible stategies that provide life and security for all equally.
garote: (Default)
[personal profile] garote
Social media sites as pathways to news

According to this survey data, In 2017 two-thirds of U.S. adults got their news from various forms of social media, the majority from Facebook. This proportion also skewed towards the less educated, the older, and the non-white demographics.

At the same time ... )
[identity profile] nairiporter.livejournal.com
All politicians lie. Some lie more than others. And since we're about populism and demagoguery in politics (quite a timely monthly topic indeed), let's see who are the most lying politicians, particularly presidential candidates, as per the FactCheck and other similar aggregates. What does the Truth-O-Meter have to say?

Source one.

As expected, Trump's pants are on fire big time. 60.13% of his statements have been false, 2.53% true. Throughout his entire campaign! Hillary ranks 13.33% and 13.33%, respectively.

Looking beyond the two nominees... )
[identity profile] dreamville-bg.livejournal.com
There are so many shootings in the US, with so many victims, that the fact that the police are still wondering whether to treat the latest California massacre as an actual terrorist attack or not, does not appear to be that relevant at this point. We've got to put this in context, so here's some:

Number of people killed annually by firearms in the US: 30,000+
Number of people shot and murdered every day: 30+
Homicide is the second leading cause of death among 15-24 year-olds.
And the primary cause of death among African Americans of age 18-35.

And gun violence is actually rather costly )
[identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
Europe is experiencing the biggest refugee crisis since World War II. Based on data from the United Nations, here's a clarification of the scale of the crisis.

--- LINK ---

Some details )
[identity profile] nairiporter.livejournal.com
For many decades, humanitarian and development aid has been viewed in a very superficial way. Until ten years ago, when a young French researcher named Esther Duflo started a thorough investigation of the problem. She was idealist, tenacious, but also kind of discouraged at first. Because after 40 years of intensive development aid, and more than 3 billion dollars poured into the system, there was still no clear mechanism deploying the right amounts of money to the right places, as the right time, and for the right reasons. And neither did anyone have any idea if aid had any tangible long-term effect whatsoever.

http://blog.ctrlbreak.co.uk/wp-content/botswana3.png

In a historic report in 2010, Duflo drew two curves. One showed the amount of aid given to Africa for the last few decades. Undoubtedly, it was steadily climbing. The other one showed the GDP per capita of the continent. And today it remains similar to its 70s levels. How is that possible?

Read more... )
[identity profile] gunslnger.livejournal.com
Just to inject some facts into this debate:


I am not taking a position in this post, this is just for people to inform themselves, analyze the facts, and come to a logical conclusion, rather than listen to the media bloviate about the subject.

I don't need to take a position in this post. People need to see the facts and talk about the facts. My opinion on these facts will come out in the comments.

To respond to some of the comments in the deleted post, these facts are not intended to make a coherent point. That is the point of the post. There are a lot of facts out there and they don't all agree or line up easily. Opinion makers pick and choose which ones they want to use to "prove" their opinion and don't tell you about the other ones. I'd prefer to give you all the facts and then we can have a complete and logical discussion rather than an emotional one based on partial information (or sometimes outright lies). Feel free to submit some more facts that you have access to. These items were not picked based on anything other than that they are statistics and facts. I can guarantee you that they are not all biased one particular way, and if you actually read them, you'll see that. If you want to call the FBI or the CDC biased or bullshit, take that up with them.

Also, don't focus entirely on the picture. That is just one item, not the point of the post.
[identity profile] jerseycajun.livejournal.com
"We create models of reality and then insist that the models are reality. It is not that science, mathematics, and statistics do not provide useful information about the real world. The problem lies in making excessive claims for the validity of these methods and models and believing them to be absolutely certain." - William Byers, PhD mathematics and statistics, Concordia University.

Oh Great Scott, he's going to talk about 'complexity' again, isn't he... )
[identity profile] dreadfulpenny81.livejournal.com
The answer is YES.

A recent study from Rice University indicates that 15% of scientists at major research universities see science and religion in constant conflict.
They interviewed a scientifically selected sample of 275 participants, pulled from a survey of 2,198 tenured and tenure-track faculty in the natural and social sciences at 21 elite U.S. research universities. Only 15 percent of those surveyed view religion and science as always in conflict. Another 15 percent say the two are never in conflict, and 70 percent believe religion and science are only sometimes in conflict. Approximately half of the original survey population expressed some form of religious identity, whereas the other half did not.
Those surveyed cited issues like stem cell research and the theories of evolution vs. creationism in education as reasons why science and religion are regarded as conflicting entities.

Nona Willis Aronowitz, Associate Editor with GOOD/Culture makes an interesting point in her piece on the study.
Claiming that religion and science are enemies only strengthens the forces that keep people of faith from accepting science in the first place.
1. Do you agree/disagree with Aronowitz's observation?
2. "Sixty-eight percent of scientists surveyed consider themselves spiritual to some degree." -- Do you think this would affect their work in any way?
3. What effects do you think (or hope) this study would have on science, religion (or spirituality) or both?
[identity profile] mintogrubb.livejournal.com
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1957746,00.html

In WW2 apparently, they came up with the idea of measuring how much a coutry was producing as a way to track how well we were winning the war.

Well, we won , but what happened in the post war era?
We may have more colour TV sets and such - but are we truly better off?

Well, the link looks at health as well as wealth ,a nd also well being.
How many people live alone and suffer from boredom and loneliness?
Or are likely to die young due to addiction to nicotine and other harmful and dangerous drugs?

Well forget GDP and go to the Genuine Progress Index.

Ok, it is Friday. It iis fun day - check out your cheerfullness and see how you are doing .
As the asociated survey says, your feeling of well being can fluctuate , so see how you feel about life next week, check in regularly.

Me, I am signing up for the Happy Planet Project.
Forgot to add this - go on , check out Your stats- you know u want to :)
http://www.happyplanetindex.org/engage/index.html
[identity profile] dreadfulpenny81.livejournal.com
Food. We all eat it and we all need it to sustain, but the eating habits of Americans have gotten worse.

Gallup published a poll on June 9 that shows declines from the same polling period the previous year. First, here's a graph showing the results from Jan. 2008 to the present time.



This year, 55.9% of Americans said they ate five or more servings of fruits and vegetables at least four times a week (recommended). That's down from 57.8% the same time last year. Produce consumption is reduced mainly in young adults, seniors, women, and Hispanics. Hispanics and young adults were the least likely to consume the full servings of fruits and vegetables according to the poll.

May is usually the start of the strongest period of health improvement among Americans because of seasonal changes, but rising gas prices are affecting purchase power and grocery costs.

What can be done to change this? Have you noticed any differences in your diet or health habits due to rising gas and food costs?

I can say from my own experience that I've shaved a few things off my grocery list or bought more frozen/canned fruits and vegetables than fresh because of costs. I think if people have access to a farmers market, they should definitely take advantage because it's a great way to support small, local farmers who might be struggling and obtain fresh produce without grocery store markup.

Bonus: I'm not sure if this was posted before, but Hunch.com conducted a non-scientific poll with 700,000 of its users to determine eating habits and political affiliation. Are there similarities between your eating habits and what the infographic shows?

(Note: Mods, is there any way we can get a 'nutrition' tag? Thanks!) Thanks for adding the tag! :D
[identity profile] mijopo.livejournal.com
Just a note for those who enjoy the user data:  based on some requests and further thoughts,  I've added data to the spreadsheet discussed Thursday.  Updates include:

* tag_user data (quickly find out which tags most often apply to a particular user's posts, this might help [livejournal.com profile] mahnmut  with his obsession lists, and which users have been given/have used a particular tag. e.g., "recommended", the most,  see comment. )
* Breakdown by year, versions of the various data for 2009 and for 2010 (see worksheets with tab names starting with '2009' or '2010')
* user location (where are our users located? I pulled out some data based on profile page info, for about 2/3 we have at least country data. See the 'user location' tab and comment.  I'm sure I'm surprising nobody by noting that these data indicate that 75% of [livejournal.com profile] talk_politics -ers are in the US)

[identity profile] mijopo.livejournal.com
As a followup to this morning's post, I've posted the data and some data about comments here: link. I got this information by downloading the post pages and then parsing out and counting "lj:user=" references.  Note that I don't think this includes comments when comments break into a second page, (but the "comments received" number does include this as that number is just read from the bottom of the post).  (I've recounted posts contributed in this data, there are small discrepancies from this morning, e.g., I have 57 posts by this count, had 59 on the earlier count, too much effort to try to figure out the discrepancies.)
read more... )
[identity profile] mijopo.livejournal.com
I ran a script this morning to grab the URLs for all my postings here.  While I was at it, I did a count of contributions. Here are the top 20 posters all time in [livejournal.com profile] talk_politics. These posters contributed 57% of all posts (2901 total). (ETA: I've listed 20-60 in comments below.)   246 different users have contributed posts, but over 80% of all posts have come from 52 users.

(if anyone can tell me how to get past the login page using wget (in perl), I'd be happy to try to grab the data for all commenters.  My initial attempts have been stymied by the login page.)

If anyone would like a list of the URLs and posting titles they've contributed, just let me know in the comments.


NOTE: Edited, seem to have missed some data on first go through, revised numbers, further errors possible, of course:

Total posts: 3126
Total posts by top 20: 1770
Total posts by top 50: 2475
Total Posters: 250

underlankers 240
gunslnger 120
sophia_sadek 109
telemann 107
enders_shadow 102
mahnmut 97
ddstory 96
malasadas 92
verytwistedmind 90
kinvore 87
abomvubuso 83
paft 79
futurebird 68
green_man_2010 67
htpcl 66
allhatnocattle 63
mijopo 59
meus_ovatio 52
airiefairie 47
sandwichwarrior 46
[identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
The 4th quarter has started, and its time for the last installment of the Dailyquotes™ (see 2009; 2010: pt.1 / pt.2 / pt.3).

There are no strict criteria for getting on the list. Whenever someone makes a spontaneous remark that inspires others to either have a laugh or go into deep contemplation, chances are it'll get in here, and will be also featured on the community sidebar.

Daily Quotes 2010 - 4th quarter )
[identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
As we're now stepping into the 3rd quarter of the year, we're bringing the new Daily Quotes list over here (continued).

There are no certain requirements for finding yourself in it. Whenever someone makes a spontaneous remark that inspires others to either have a laugh or go into deep contemplation, chances are that it'll get in here, and will be also featured on the community sidebar. ;)


The Dailyquote list for the 3rd quarter of 2010 starts behind the cut (with links)...


Daily Quotes 2010 - 3rd quarter )
[identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
I'm sure most of you are familiar with the Daily Quotes collection. And because we're now well into the 2nd quarter of the year, here's the continuation of the Daily Quotes list.

There are no certain requirements for finding yourself in it. Whenever someone makes a spontaneous remark that inspires others to either have a laugh or go into deep contemplation, chances are that it'll get in here, and will be also featured on the community sidebar. ;)


The Dailyquote list for the 2nd quarter of 2010 starts behind the cut (with links)...

Daily Quotes 2010 - 2nd quarter )
 
[identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
Hi, everyone! I'm sure you remember the [livejournal.com profile] talk_politics 2009 Daily Quotes list. It was fun!

So i guess its time to open the new one for 2010, right?

I'm hereby announcing the beginning of the new Daily Quotes list, which of course, as the name suggests, will be updated daily.

There are no certain requirements for finding yourself in it. Whenever someone makes a remark that inspires others to either have a laugh or go into deep contemplation, chances are that it'll get in here. (Sorry, insults dont qualify). ;)

Now, a moddy announcement )

The Dailyquote list for the 1st quarter of 2010 starts behind the cut (now with links)...

Daily Quotes 2010 - 1st quarter )
[identity profile] mijopo.livejournal.com
A recent post pointed to some assessment of the level of freedom in each of the various states. I thought it would be interesting to look at correlations for those scores and scores in some other areas, e.g., income levels, poverty levels, health, quality of education, crime, etc. I used a simple correlation coefficient to compare the scores, using data, of unknown quality, that I gathered from various sources on the web. (I'm not a stats expert so I'll defer to others on wording here, but let me give a quick dirty overview of correlation. The closer a score is to 1, the more the increase in one score goes up with the other, while the closer a score is to -1, the more an increase in one score is tied to a decrease in the other score, i.e., the further a correlation is from 0, setting aside some important assumptions about the nature of the data, the more it's the case that the two datasets are linked, with, of course, all necessary disclaimers about correlation not being the same as causation.)Read more )

Update:Replaced bad html table with Excel screenshot to fix whitespace problem.

A version with more preamble x-posted to my journal.
[identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
Just for the purposes of the archive (will be updated frequently).



Daily quotes on talk_politics.


Quotes list )

Credits & Style Info

Talk Politics.

A place to discuss politics without egomaniacal mods

DAILY QUOTE:
"Someone's selling Greenland now?" (asthfghl)
"Yes get your bids in quick!" (oportet)
"Let me get my Bid Coins and I'll be there in a minute." (asthfghl)

May 2025

M T W T F S S
   12 3 4
56 78 91011
12 13 1415 161718
19202122 232425
26 272829 3031