talkpolitics | Entries tagged with elections

A 'where did it go wrong for the democrats?' post shouldn't be necessary - bad candidate + bad campaign = bad results, but then again, the answer might not be that obvious to them.

Do 48% of Democrats really think Kamala is the best choice for 2028? If true, that's great - I fully support their decision. If it isn't true, somebody wanted it to appear so - perhaps they can push her through again without one of those pesky primaries.

The Democrat bench can't really be this thin, surely there is someone tucked away with plans, and policies, and personality, and an ability to speak and answer questions without just clumping together a bunch of clichés and metaphors and adverbs?

A diversity-hire nominee running entirely on 'trump bad, abortion good' wasn't enough this time. If you're a Democrat, what gives you hope that it will be enough next time when Trump isnt on the ticket and abortion is more settled than it is now?

fridi

What moment will be remembered as the one that ensured victory? The fist pump after being shot? Serving fries at McDonald's? Or was it the orange vest show while driving the garbage truck?

Your thoughts?

How Donald Trump Pulled Off the Greatest Comeback in Political History

My thoughts: This race was never anything but 50/50. How is it the "greatest comeback in history"? I think Truman beating Dewey is still bigger.

luzribeiro

There's something deeply perverse about a guy who has never (not even for a second!) worked a hard, low-paying job taking pictures of himself in a fast-food chain restaurant where people bust their asses working for minimum wage. (The same person is from the party that stubbornly votes against raising the minimum wage every time!)

All of this in the name of a Halloween costume party, only... for an election campaign.
Why? Because Kamala Harris had orked at that chain 40 years ago.

I mean... I mean, all of this is done so that the Orange stain on America's pants could also count himself among the "hard working folks".

( Read more... )

oportet

It's finally here - the 2nd and likely (but hopefully not) last presidential debate of the season. Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democrat appointee Kamala Harris will be squaring off in what many (on both sides!) consider to be the most important state in the election - Pennsylvania.

You should watch it, maybe even record it. It's going to be great.

herdofturtles

BLM has largely fallen from the public eye after more than one embezzlement scandal, and as for myself, I was never too keen on the organisation (I found them needlessly inflammatory). But as of late they've made an interesting point. If Kamala Harris is nominated, Kamala Harris will be the first presidential candidate in the US who wasn't nominated by "we the people" in a primary election.

( Read more... )

luzribeiro

Took him long enough. I guess the money finally ran out. As well as his allies' patience.

US President Joe Biden says it has been 'greatest honour' to serve as he ends campaign

It seems the Dems have FINALLY figured things out.

Trump has a new target.....one he won't know until after the election while 'candidates' grab headlines as they vie against each other.

Let's face it. Donnie hasn't said anything new in five years, just the same old whine and cheesy bitching.

It will be October before MAGA has a true target,and by then Trump's soft edges will be eroding.

It is exactly what I would have proscribed.

In the meantime... You might have just missed the news: Bidenomics worked and no one cares.

You might have just missed Earth-shattering economic news

Economists Say Inflation Would Be Worse Under Trump Than Biden

oportet

In a few minutes two extraordinary candidates the entire ~~country~~ world would be happy to have lead the U.S. for the next 4 years will get together in Atlanta for a friendly debate.

The following are my observations. And yours too I hope. And also my dog, I'll let him weigh in some. Here we go?

luzribeiro

Not sure how this benefits the American people, I suppose if you think the purpose of government is to stick it to the libs you'd be happy with this.

Who Is on Donald Trump’s Revenge List?

It's a long list indeed:

Joe Biden and his family
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg
New York Judge Juan Merchan
New York Attorney General Letitia James
New York Judge Arthur Engoron
Special Counsel Jack Smith and anyone involved in the federal Trump investigations/indictments
Members of the House select 1/6 committee
Journalists and Media Organizations
Nonprofits and charities that support migrants
Retired Joint Chiefs Chairman Miley
Federal regulatory agencies
Employees at the National Archives
Tens of thousands of civil servants in the federal government
Mark Zuckerberg

Let's not forget the other 80,000,000 people that voted against him. Remember, his tax cuts punished high income blue states by limiting the SALT deductions for members of states that already shared excess federal taxes collected from the state.

Also, you have to consider that many MAGA will be in the line of fire as well for not donating. It's not enough to merely support Trump, vocally defend him, or vote for him. You need to be giving your money to him as well. If you're not giving financially, then you're basically no better than the rest of the RINO filth.

kiaa

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/number-prominent-republicans-backing-biden-grows-slowly-rcna151279

I'd like to believe that many of the prominent Republicans who, despite trashing Trump, said they would vote for him, would actually vote against him. It is well known that Republicans who are vocally opposed to Trump are not only threatened with the loss of their seats in Congress by Trump's mindless minions, but much worse than that, have actually had their lives and their families' lives threatened for crossing Herr Führer.

But we know that even as recently as this past week, Nikki Haley pulled over 20% of the vote at one of the remaining primaries. And I'd suspect that perhaps another 20% of those who voted for Trump did so holding their noses. So this speaks not only to the very real possibility that the disproportionate polling in Trump's favor of just a few months back would actually not be reflected in the general elections, but that there is a very real possibility that Trump faces a contested GOP Convention, where he may not even emerge as the candidate.

It's worth reminding folks that the Convention is not an election - but is in fact the Party's selection of a candidate, and the Republican Party can stack the convention with their own Super Delegates, just as the Dems did a few elections back. I think his own people know this, which is why we see the rather desperate nepotism of putting a family member at the head of the RNC, and even his own young son Baron as a convention delegate.

Don't be surprised to find that the Republican Convention is a very unhappy affair, and that Trump's nomination is not fait accompli.

fridi

Discussion: In what types of ways can mail in ballots be subject to fraud? How would you make elections more secure?

When someone votes in person, they have to be physically present. Being able to mass mail in ballots takes away leverage from election integrity. The 2020 election was decided by just 40,000 votes across multiple swing states.

"Heartland/Rasmussen Poll: One-in-Five Mail-In Voters Admit to Committing at Least One Kind of Voter Fraud During 2020 Election"

One of the questions the study doesn't appear to ask is how many of the votes that were technically fraudulent actually ended up with the vote supporting the wrong candidate? i.e if you illegally completed a ballot for say your mom who forgot to do it herself in time, but she chose who the supported candidates were, the vote is technically fraudulent, but didn't 'change' the result in the way people talking about voter fraud generally infer.

You could do away with mail in voting outside of a more tightly controlled criteria, but to do that you'd need thousands more polling stations, better access over a longer period and hours etc to make sure that everyone who wants to vote can reasonably do so. Shift the final day of voting to a Sunday where most people don't have competing work requirements etc etc like most other countries do. More ideas of how to make this work?

abomvubuso

Images, videos, voice messages... in recent months, AI-generated content has caused a number of problems worldwide. For example, some photos that purported to show the arrest of Donald Trump, as well as some that were claimed to cover the war in the Middle East, have turned out to be created by artificial intelligence:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65069316

The opportunities and risks that artificial intelligence creates have been the subject of a heated debate in political circles. And that's not surprising: in the coming year, there are many elections around the world to be held, including the decisive one for President of the United States and the vote for European Parliament. The EU wants to impose stricter rules on the use of AI, while some organisations are warning against over-regulating the market. In the meantime, an increasing portion of the general public now believe that AI is a threat to democracy.

We've seen it all this year: we've already witnessed false information spreading like fire during an election campaign, not without active help from AI. Before the elections in Slovakia, an audio generated by AI appeared and was distributed on FB and other social networks, purportedly featuring the voices of a major party leader and a journalist, discussing the manipulation of the upcoming election. It was not clear to users at first that the audio recording was a so-called "deepfake":

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/slovakia-election-deepfakes

( Read more... )

luzribeiro

I was watching a news article on this and found it interesting. This party is neither Democrat nor Republican but they do have the ability to affect the 2024 election. This really depends on whether they choose a Democrat or Republican as the leader of their party.

It could actually take votes from either party. We could laugh this off, but Ross Perot received almost 19% of the popular vote in 1992. If they chose someone like Liz Cheney or Chris Sununu it could take votes away from Republicans. However, if they chose a strong Democrat it could take votes away from Democrats. Bottom line is that they don't want to see another Trump vs Biden match:

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/3992472-a-no-labels-presidential-candidate-cant-win-but-could-determine-who-does/

luzribeiro

Biden, Harris officially announce their 2024 re-election campaign

We're a step closer to having the rematch most Americans don't want. It seems both major parties are out of touch with most Americans or either don't give an owl's hoot what most Americans think, want or wish for.

The latest poll on running again or having the rematch. Questions 19 and 21

26% of Americans want Biden to run again, 53% don't. Democrats 47% do, 28% don't

32% of Americans want Trump to run again, 54% don't, Republicans 56% do, 29% don't

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6jir2a8rbh/econTabReport.pdf

Not sure which part of don't want either of these two to run again don't both major parties understand?

oportet

It's almost time. Well, almost almost time - but definitely not too early to begin to become tired of talking about it already. Let's meet our contestants.

Joe Biden (+220) - Inflation, recession, war, accelerating cognitive decline, questionable business ventures with his son, inappropriate showers with his daughter - things like this would sink most candidates. This isn't most candidates though. This is Scranton Joe. He is resilient, and also your early favorite to repeat.

Donald Trump (+330) - Can he run as a winner after losing? Can he run as a guy who gets things done when there isn't a wall? Can he run as anti-establishmemt after surrounding himself with establishment last time around? Yes. Sad.

Ron DeSantis (+370) - The fiery Republican Plan B. If there is a breaking point where people using the word 'woke' incessantly become more annoying than the actual 'woke' - he'll probably get us there quicker. There is a rumor Trump is considering Tiny D for a nickname, and that is reason enough to keep watching.

Kamala Harris (+2400) - She's black, she's a woman, and if you're a Democrat that almost seals the deal (what else matters?) - Unfortunately, there is something holding her back. It would be much easier for democrats to find a black woman without her condition. (heythatwasforeshawdowing)

Pete Buttigieg (+3000) - Technically, gay white males still qualify for victimhood, but they're clearly at the bottom. Whatever gay bump he could get would likely be cancelled out by the awful run he's had as transportation secretary. He is the best speaker of all democrats mentioned to this point, don't underestimate a good bullshitter.

Gavin Newsom (+3200) - A straight white male, eeek! There is hope though, I see a path to victory. A fairly significant portion of democrats care (or pretend to care) about the environment. If you're a lefty worried about the existential threat of climate change™ - Newsom is the first democrat listed who doesn't have ties to an administration that's bombed a major underwater oil pipeline. Yay earth!

Nikki Haley (+4000) - Tons of 'experience', powerful backers, zero conviction in anything she says. She's essentially the Hillary of the right, but without a beloved spouse to ride the coattails of. Will she break the glass ceiling? Maybe, but only if the glass ceiling is better than 4th in her own state.

Michelle Obama (+4200) - She's black, she's a woman, and she's smart - as in she is not legitimately stupid, she isn't the absolute dumbest fucking person you've ever encountered in the world of politics, your body does not brace for shame whenever she speaks. If you are a Republican - or not but pulling for that team next season - you'd probably rather not see her in the final.

Mike Pence (+7000) - He's got the energy of Mitt Romney, he's got the dynamic stage presence of Jeb Bush, he's got the dignified statesman act down better than anyone else in the game. He's also got no chance, the team is clearly moving in a different direction.

Early hunches? Who do you like on the list? Who do you hate? Who should be added? What's for breakfast?

luzribeiro

Republicans shrug off Trump '24 bid: 'The excitement’s just not there'
The former president is not bending the GOP to his will like he used to.

We can all take from this what we may, I suppose. But I seem to sense much of what the article conveys, that is less energy and enthusiasm for Trump this time - along with a general GOP willingness to push back against him without the usual Trumpian repercussions.

I suspect the Don senses the above as well, and that might factor into his not pushing-back against challengers to the often high degree he usually does.

Also might explain his angry social media messages lately.

I'd hope on numerous issues that Republicans might find some little bit of decency to turn against this traitor as he'd add new wrongs; but also felt that the one thing most likely to get them to turn on him was when he looked like he'd lose them elections instead of win them.

I think they hugely failed on the decency issue, almost all of them never turning on him for any good reason, but that we're seeing the other reason of him losing elections now cause it. They get no credit for this. It's like giving credits to Nazis for doing the right thing by losing WWII. It wasn't their choice. They get zero points from this.

luzribeiro

"Vote for me or the country will be destroyed!" says Biden.

Biden warns GOP could set nation on ‘path to chaos’ as democratic system faces strain

Normally, you'd just call this the usual desperate scaremongering and I'd agree with you, but on a second review, he might have a point (or two) on this account.

I know the MAGAs have the memory of a goldfish, but most of us still remember 2 short years ago when these guys did actually actively try to throw democracy out of the window altogether because they didn't like the result of the election.

What else would you call the mentality of "if my side didn't win, it was rigged and we should overthrow the government!" if not anti-democracy? So sorry their butthurt feelings don't overrule US democracy, but he does have a point here.

The deeper issue is, Republicans can't win on issues. That's why they don't have any positions outside of fear mongering themselves, culture wars, election disinformation and voter disenfranchisement. The last time they tried to argue an issue was healthcare and that was years ago and they couldn't even come up with a credible plan to push. They learned their lesson - they don't need to have a position on issues and they don't need to govern because their base doesn't care about those things.

When was the last time you heard a Republican have a substantive position on any issue that didn't involve mentioning Democrats, the "left", the "woke mob", LGBTQ+ people, criminals, bureaucrats, BLM, the "deep state", Hillary, Pelosi, Hunter, AOC or immigrants?

oportet

While it doesn't (or rarely does it) happen here in Talk Politics - if you pay attention to any other mediums where politics are discussed you've definitely - probably frequently - seen someone encourage others to register to vote, vote, vote for a specific person/party/movement, etc.

At first glance it probably seems like friendly advice, but is there more to it?

Does 'You should vote/You should vote for x' kinda come across like 'you should chew on a breathmint', 'you should put on some deodorant', 'you should read a book'? Does the suggestion itself imply 'I'm smarter than you. I'm more aware than you. You're lucky I'm here to share my wisdom.'?

Can you think of any context* where a person telling another to vote or vote a certain way isn't - whether intentional or not - condescending? Any context where the person receiving the advice shouldn't feel just a liiiiiittle bit insulted?

of course obvious exceptions with coma patients, newly obtained ability to vote...

luzribeiro

Let's not kid ourselves here, we have a rogue and renegade political party within our midst.

Does anyone doubt a Republican controlled Texas legislature wouldn't hesitate to replace the People's chosen Electors, should Trump lose the '24 election?

Texas GOP adopts resolution rejecting 2020 election results

The Republican Party of Texas over the weekend adopted a resolution at its state convention that rejects President Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 election, further aligning the state party establishment with former President Donald Trump in pushing false election claims.

"We reject the certified results of the 2020 Presidential election, and we hold that acting President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was not legitimately elected by the people of the United States," reads the resolution, passed by voice vote in Houston on Saturday. "We strongly urge all Republicans to work to ensure election integrity and to show up to vote in November of 2022, bring your friends and family, volunteer for your local Republicans, and overwhelm any possible fraud."

Texas is an embarrassment. When are the people of that weird state going to show the leadership that the politics of revolution does not end well for those at the top?

When there is a failure of government to legislate rationally, what follows is sectarian violence, like in other theocracies.

The GOP should, henceforth, be referred to as banana-republicans, because that's what they're trying to create here.

The inmates are running the asylum! To state in your party's policy platform that you reject the results of a certified election and reject the duly elected President spells a death knell for democracy at least in Texas. One baby step from the TX legislators saying they can overturn any election that they don't agree with. They also make separation from the States party policy and reject homosexuality as a lifestyle choice. Then of course there was the terrible reception Cornyn got.

Democracy is officially dead in TX. Which State is next?

luzribeiro

The first news is that the "fat pig", as former Prime Minister David Cameron used to call his friend Boris Johnson, has once again slipped out of the hands of his opponents. The other news is that the British prime minister has survived a no-confidence vote invoked by his own conservative party members, with a worse result than his predecessor, Theresa May, three years ago. I suspect there's hardly anything else that angers Johnson more than this fact.

The historical examples are not very encouraging anyway. Theresa May resigned six months after that vote, when it was found that only 60% of her party members supported her. And her political collapse came in part because Boris Johnson, the guy in question, was tirelessly plotting political intrigues behind her back, so that Ms Mae had no choice but to wave the white flag and quit.

( Read more... )

mahnmut

We all know it's a problem.

Watch on YouTube

This article from Brookings is a good place to start. It doesn't immediately throw accusations of gerrymandering but instead sorts the states according to how representative their districts are.

Both sides used to be happy enough with a round district centered on a city, because that had inner-city for Dems and a larger number of suburban voters they stood a chance with. Cities growing larger however, makes that an unfair way to draw boundaries: the bulls-eye is almost all Democratic and votes are wasted which could have gone to won more swing districts in the state. Dividing inner cities neatly in two is a fairer way (for big cities) and happily enough the Shortest Split Line tends to do that automatically.

Of course, we could make things even simpler and listen to what an impartial foreign outsider would likely have to say on the matter, namely that all partisan gerrymandering should be illegal, and all districting should be done by independent commissions, not lawmakers. But what do I know.

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Talk politics.

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Entries tagged with elections

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Four more years of the Big Orange Head

The problem is not (only) Trump. The problem is that half of America will vote for him

cherish this night forever

Thoughts on snap primary?

That was to be expected

ohmygosh

The Avenger in Chief

The number of prominent Republicans backing Biden grows

In-mail voting

Attack of the bots: Democracy under assault

No Labels party?

This ought to be fun

Most Important Election Ever: Early Edition

The Don is not as exciting any more, I suppose

He's got a point though

for those about to overthink I salute you

Wow, Texas.

BoJo exposed

On-topic: Gerrymandered voting maps

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