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talkpolitics
In late July, Dr. Gigi Foster, Professor, Director of Education, School of Economics, with a PhD in economics, University of Maryland, and a BA, magna cum laude in Ethics, Politics, and Economics, Yale University, made the suggestion that Australia "... can follow in the footsteps of many other countries in the world, some of which have not had lockdowns as strict as we have had here, such as again, Sweden - and look at the death tolls in those countries.." Indeed, Dr. Foster is quite correct, one should look at the empirical data. Because the argument that Australia should follow "the Swedish model" when managing COVID-19 has become a bit of a talking point among some in the community who feel that the economic damage is too much compared to the lives saved. Some, such as commentator Andrew Bolt, argued that all that the movement restrictions was doing was saving a few months off the lives of the elderly. The Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has confirmed that as far as the National Cabinet is concerned, Australia will be following a path of suppression, rather than elimination.Let us look at the evidence, and how well suppression has worked in Sweden, which has community social distancing, minimal movement restrictions, no mandatory masks, and an excellent health-case system. First, with any sort of comparative analysis, one should compare the nation in question with those who have similar conditions to ensure a close correlation for policy comparison. The following is as of August 5, 8.38am AEST (Denmark is August 10, 11.02pm, because I didn't include them originally), from world meters.
Sweden 8,034 cases per million, 569 deaths per milion, 80,193 tests per million
Norway 1,726 cases per million, 47 deaths per million, 83,880 tests per million
Finland 1,350 cases per million, 60 deaths per million, 68,718 tests per million
Denmark 2,557 cases per million, 107 deaths per million, 302,951 tests per million
Quite clearly, Sweden's lax suppression policy has been an absolute disaster compared to its neightbours; Australia should not follow Sweden's model, especially given their own increasing doubts on its effectiveness; the numbers do not lie. Australia, in comparison, on a state-by-state level, has engaged in a strong suppression model with the following results, and by way of comparison, New Zealand's policy of "go-hard, go-early" and seek elimination, rather than suppression.
Australia 734 cases per million, 9 deaths per million, 175,348 tests per million
New Zealand 313 cases per million, 4 deaths per million, 94,714 tests per million
Anyone who advocates the Swedish approach is effectively arguing for 10x as many cases, 63x as many deaths, and to halve the number of tests. By the facts alone, NZ is twice as successful as AU and AU is tens times more successful than Sweden, in terms of cases. Strong suppression is better than lax suppression, as data shows that Melbourne's stage 3 restrictions in July prevented 19,000 additional infections. An elimination strategy is better than a strong suppression strategy. Whilst the argument paraded about is that minimising suppression measures is necessary for the economy (because an abstract noun is far more important than a visceral person in the minds of some), it has been discovered that keeping people alive and healthy has economic benefits as the country reached one-hundred days of being virus-free.
True, there has been a recent outbreak, cause currently unknown, in New Zealand and the country has reacted appropriately by re-imposing movement restrictions. Which, it is readily acknowledged, quite expected. A strategy of elimination is just that, a strategy. It reduces the number of infections to zero, but is aware that re-infection (from oversight, from outside sources) is possible. A combination of an elimination strategy, plus a hard suppression strategy subsequent creates an environment where infection numbers can be kept low.
On-topic, there is no herd immunity without a vaccine when it comes to this virus. Russia is planning to launch a nationwide vaccination campaign in October with a coronavirus vaccine that has yet to complete clinical trials, which one must ask "What could possibly go wrong?". In the United States, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has noted that any potential vaccine, perhaps next year, will only be 55%-60% effective. In other words, various restrictions will still have to apply. Vaccine research is valuable, giving us all sorts of new information and knowledge about the virus, but it does not seem that they will not be the magic bullet that we have come to expect, and we must be prepared for the very real possibility that this will never go away.
The final matter worth considering is whether such harsh measures are economically acceptable, both to lives and livelihoods. Sweden's economy has contracted, although not as badly as other countries that had a harsher initial experience and response to the virus. No longer part of the EU, the United Kingdom's results are truly woeful, and the United States is even worse. Elimination strategies again, provide some benefits in these circumstances; whilst movement restrictions and isolation are certainly a challenge to mental health, the single group that suffers the greatest suicide risk are those who have contracted and recovered from COVID-19. Another modest benefit is that the deaths caused by influenza have also declined dramatically.
From the available evidence at hand, an elimination strategy first and strong movement restrictions second seems to be the approach that allows the lowest number of infections and deaths, the best secondary effects (reduced suicide, reduced associated disease deaths), and allows for the most rapid economic recovery. With the prospect that COVID-19 will be with us in some form perhaps forever, it is time that we move away from a society that "fluctuates between being half-complacent and half-paranoid", as was warned in April and adopts, with sober senses, the best possible stategies that provide life and security for all equally.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 09:24 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 09:29 (UTC)That is disturbing. As if those people haven't already had enough...
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 10:17 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 11:01 (UTC)QOTD.
And the best analysis we have to date.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 21:59 (UTC)That's very high praise good sir.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 14:48 (UTC)*Mild shock ensues*
As far as Sweden its death rate is proportionately much higher than the USA's, the main gap is that it has less than a thirtieth of the population. If it had a US or Brazilian scale population its situation would have been as utterly catastrophic as theirs, reliant purely on the idea that Scandinavians really are the smart, intelligent, wise people they tell themselves they are.
Didn't work very well, though their leaders at least admit a virus exists rather than alleging it's some global conspiracy against them like the people in my country and Brazil do.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 18:22 (UTC)And then again there are some small, island countries who screwed the pooch on the family lawn in front of the Vicar and local magistrates.
Mild shock indeed...
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 18:34 (UTC)The only advantage you guys have over us here on this side of the pond is that your clown can speak a full, coherent sentence and then an equally full, coherent paragraph.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/20 22:08 (UTC)I am sure you've noticed that the population density of Sweden and New Zealand are almost identical.
Other jurisdictions that adopt similar policies to NZ will have similar results.
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/20 00:13 (UTC)Maybe all that sheepfucking made Kiwis smarter than Swedes, or maybe this new illness is very poorly understood and everything about how rational people (all five of them asleep in their left ear, that is) handle this is rife with unknowns and unknown unknowns at that because the fuller ramifications of what did and didn't happen in Sweden and how much its relatively low rate and it still shooting itself in the balls economically shutdown or no shutdown could bear further examination.
Likewise, Japan had a sudden sharp upswing too, and they've been doing wonderfully with it, if not quite to the degree of the sheepfuckers.
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/20 06:46 (UTC)Or maybe they just had good leadership? A government which listened to epidemiologists; not merely economists who didn’t seem to understand the ramifications of disease and society.
Because that’s what it looks like.
I saw a good quote the other day: “It takes a pandemic to underline that we live in a society, not just an economy.”
Unless we are positing that shagging sheep confers immunity, obviously. In which case we must overcome our understandable distaste to get immunised.
I actually prefer the leadership argument. Ovine amorousness should be left to country folk with bad habits. In the cities folk tend to opt for observable competence over romancing the ewe.
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/20 17:05 (UTC)I always that I say I tell jokes, I don't tell good jokes.
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/20 10:12 (UTC)Grow up.
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/20 17:03 (UTC)I would have made a joke about Middle Earth but they have people too smart for any Sauron jokes.
Or is it just offensive when it's this as opposed to the whole thing about a 'pan European culture' that happens to include Australia, founded by a bunch of genocidal English criminals who butchered one of the oldest cultures on Earth but not Brazil and Mexico and Argentina, founded by Portguese and Spanish second sons of nobles who wanted to make it big without having to actually work at it?
(no subject)
Date: 16/8/20 03:36 (UTC)Wait, is that what you think an AU-EU Society would be?
That's hilarious in its utter lack of awareness on multiple levels.
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/20 16:03 (UTC)You probably thought remarks like these would make you seem smart and dandy, didn't you?
Hint: they don't.
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/20 17:07 (UTC)"USSR style Communism really good, though" mad at me. Is he actually from New Zealand? Then I'd apologize as I always thought he was British and thus accursed to have to deal with a smarter and more erudite Trump.
(no subject)
Date: 16/8/20 07:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 16/8/20 23:23 (UTC)