abomvubuso: (Groovy Kol)
[personal profile] abomvubuso
The Libyan theatre of war today very much resembles Syria 5 years ago, when a direct external intervention abruptly changed the balance of powers in a proxy war, triggering the indirect involvement of other interested parties.

As we know, in late 2015 Putin decided to directly intervene in that war. That happened at a time when, by the words of Russian foreign minister lavrov, the Assad regime had not more than two weeks remaining. Damascus was being shelled from its Guta suburb, Daesh was in control of half of Syria, the armed opposition supported by Turkey, the US and a few Arab states, was controlling Aleppo, the Idlib province, large portions of the Hawran and Hama provinces, as well as the port of Latakia.

It was a time when Iran, which whether overtly or secretly, was supporting Assad, finally realised it was losing the war. So they called the Russians for help. Since president Obama didn't follow on his own threat (remember, the Red Line that Assad had apparently crossed), no one stood in the way of the Russian invasion. Putin himself only announced the end of the "main military actions" once he had put 2/3 of Syria's territory under control.

Read more... )
fridi: (Default)
[personal profile] fridi
Turkey will be supporting the Libyan government of Fayez as-Sarraj in his war with Gan. Khalifa Haftar. The latter's so called Libyan National Army is trying to conquer Tripoli, and controls vast regions in Eastern Libya.

As we all know, Turkey is an emerging regional power in the Middle East that is currently in economic crisis. Some might ask themselves, what's Turkey doing in Africa, especially after it already got involved in neibhboring Syria. Isn't a second military adventure, now far from home, a bit risky? Well, if you ask Erdogan, he'll tell you he's aiming to defend the lawfully elected Libyan government from those pesky warlords. He's also saying he's acting on Sarraj's invitation, who indeed did sign a military cooperation agreement with his neo-Ottoman counterpart last November. But it's clear that there's more to this story, and the game is much bigger for Erdogan.

Read more... )
arhalvaztrirjournal: (Karlee-1)
[personal profile] arhalvaztrirjournal
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/2019-02-18/obamas-libya-debacle

^Is entirely and directly connected to what did and didn't happen in Libya in 2011. Back when George Bush geared up the United States to his senseless regime change adventure in Iraq, crowds thronged the world. London, Paris, Berlin, Rome, and other societies as well as in the USA witnessed some of the largest protests in the history of the antiwar movement. These protests were entirely right, given that Bush's rationale for the war was a cheap regime change that went off the rails into something far more ambitious, the point where US imperialism's unilateral hand died in the looting of Baghdad and the rise of the war in Anbar Province. 

It may be too much to expect American antiwar activists of the present to emulate the past version that protested JFK, LBJ, Nixon, and Ford with equal fervor. It did not protest the Long War in Iraq from 1993-2000, when Clinton was in office, and it made no serious protestations about the humanitarian crisis imposed by the use of mass starvation as a 'soft' version of regime change (when that's considered 'soft' power the concept of hard and soft power may need a bit of a rewrite). The global crowds that protested all those decades ago and were conspicuous in their silence are the ones that still puzzle me. Surely the lives of Libyans are worth as much as the lives of Iraqis? Or at least Libyan oilfields if not their lives? And yet somehow, surprisingly, and yet not at all so they were not and are not. 

Of course it's worth emphasizing that the Libyan War fits squarely into the reality of American involvement in the Muslim world and the ongoing seven wars here, including the resumed war in Somalia. The United States has taken upon itself to indulge in wholesale regime change of a sort matched only by the oscillating totalitarian movements of fascism and communism in the first half of the 20th Century, deeming rulers to rise and fall on the sake of nothing more than its whim and how and in what ways it chooses to deploy its power and how brutally likewise. 

This decision was and is one of the greatest follies the United States has indulged in in recent memory. It hasn't paid a steep price in lives, but it is squandering its wealth to increasingly unsustainable degrees. The Muslim world in turn is paying the real price in lives and in hatreds and animosities stirred up the world over, and in the hydra of reactionary dogmatism that regularly gets strengthened by the USA pumping money into two of the three main sponsors and devastating the enemies of the third. 

So why then is it that only the Iraq case in 2003 saw those massive protests of it? Was that a one-off, or did it serve a particular partisan purpose and when that purpose failed, did whatever passed for conviction on the part of the true believers of that movement go with that failure? 

Why is the Iraq War treated as a moral crisis to end all crises, but the Libyan War is seen only in the faux GOP scandal of Benghazi? Surely Libya should be one of the all time record US disasters on par with Beirut, if seen by a more truthful analysis? Personally I would say it fits into the same chronic pattern where history exists selectively in the eyes in the USA, at least, of its progressives. Republicans in 1968 affect 2019, 2011 under a Democratic President does not. 
abomvubuso: (Groovy Kol)
[personal profile] abomvubuso

So, the US has "temporarily" (!?) withdrawn its troops from Libya. The US African command (safely stationed in Stuttgart, Germany) has called the withdrawal temporary, but of course they can't say when they're planning to return the troops there.

The situation in Libya has deteriorated, Gen Halifa Haftar has started an assault on Tripoli, the capital, where the UN-backed government of Faiz Sarraj is based. Although Russia claims they're neutral in this, they've already blocked a UN resolution denouncing the violence and urging Haftar to stop his attack on the capital.

Read more... )
arhalvaztrirjournal: (Glorious exposition Comrade)
[personal profile] arhalvaztrirjournal
Time to go with a very recent illustration of how little people can and will choose to learn or not learn from history.

The first example is archetypal, now, as a classic example of imperial hubris bringing about the start of what is now the relative decline of the American Empire in all but the sphere of brute military force.

All the myriad ways a protracted air war wasn't one and was somehow a state of peace when Bill Clinton did it )

Now, after all of this, George W. Bush, seeing an endless set of ground and air strife in Iraq, somehow concluded his brilliant move was to do what the USA actually did want daddy dearest to do in 1991 and punished him for being intelligent enough to avoid, namely launching ground troops to Baghdad on a stunning venture of US imperial power. This war, started in 2003, and ongoing anew now in the form of the spillover of the Syrian Civil War and the first attempts to seriously alter the Westphalian concept of the state prevailing since 1648, as well as the Versailles-era geopolitical boundaries of the United States, was and is the great archetype of US military clusterfuckery since Vietnam.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/war-in-iraq-begins


However, content to not allow George W. Bush to have a monopoly on willful, moronic, self-destructive vendettas with a petty tyrant in the Middle East who licked to flip the bird to the Great Satan and tweak the tail of the American turkey, the Obama Administration decided to go to war against the regime of Muammar of Many Spellings, the charismatic military despot who'd presided over Libya for some decades at the time of his removal.

cut for long reminder that the USA's had a hate on for ManySpellings to rival that for Mr. Hussein )

Ensue the Obama Administration deciding, in spite of the empirically valid proof the Long War in Iraq offered, as well as the Longer War in Afghanistan, to replicate this genius move a third time and remove yet another minor tin pot tyrant with a fetish for sending thugs to shoot up his neighbors to remind people he existed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/02/03/a-tough-call-on-libya-that-still-haunts/?utm_term=.fd70f5ec1820

In the sense of removing ManySpellings the war was successful. In every other standard it replicated and exceeded the clusterfuck of 1991-present on a far grander scale in far less time, which arguably could be said to be the difference between the Bush kind of evil and what Obam did. Obama was much more efficient in his disasters and able to make them worse in infinitely shorter timeframes.

And now, not content to bring US 'liberation' by the crash of the bomb to Libya and Iraq, and to perpetuate and worsen the Afghan Civil War with yet another superpower causing chaos wherever it goes, the USA of Trump is proposing 5,000 troops to ignore logistics, geography, and viability of a proposed approach to presumably launch an anabasis into Venezuela, a move that will go far less well than Iraq did, and since Iraq is a sterling example of a fiasco of Churchillian proportions......

The United States is an empire stuck in a rut of a Roman degree. It sees problems, unleashes awesome military force expecting people to 1) accept it, and 2) be grateful if they survive for living in a bombed-out charred rubble field splattered with the blood and entrails of their relatives. Somehow this never happens and the USA is regularly bemused that it doesn't.

I'd like to think reality  will ensue sufficiently the USA has to accept it, but it hasn't with three spectacular failures in a generation, and I see no reason to expect it suddenly will in Venezuela. So even by the bloody and savagely ironic standards of history, these recent illustrations of a cyclical pattern are especially gruesome at multiple levels.

[identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com

There are indications that Russia is planning a military intervention in Libya. On March 13, Russian special units and drones were spotted in the Egyptian coastal town of Sidi Barrani, just 100 km east of the Libyan territory that's controlled by the Russia-supported Gen. Khalifa Haftar.

If Russia is really working to change the balance of powers in Libya as they did in Syria, Turkey's positions in the Eastern Mediterreanean will be threatened (not to mention America's). Establishing a military presence there is aimed to stabilise the Sisi regime in Egypt against the Islamists. That's in line with the traditional Russian policy since the Soviet times when they were in alliance with Egypt. Now they're conducting joint military exercises, and Russia is actively helping Egypt to guard its vulnerable western border.

Read more... )
[identity profile] dreamville-bg.livejournal.com
Incumbents do tend to show a proneness to self-introspection and reflection upon their (now almost finished) tenure. Obama is no exception. In a recent interview, when prompted to point out what he believes was the biggest blunder of his presidency, he cited the Libya debacle, more specifically the lack of an exit plan:

Obama Reveals His Biggest Foreign Policy Mistake

Some would instantly claim coyness, even disingenuousness here, I'm sure. I mean, was that his biggest blunder? Really? The US wasn't even the driving force behind that intervention. France and Britain were. As soon as Sarko's former buddy Gaddafi threatened to reveal some inconvenient secrets about the former's campaign donors, Sarko suddenly started to push for a military intervention and a removal of the Gaddafi regime. Even despite the threat that without anyone solid and ruthless enough in Tripoli to contain the migrant pressure from North Africa and the Sahel, Europe would be having a huge problem on its hands, once chaos inevitably started reigning in Libya. Which is what really happened. But nobody seemed to care at the time.

But here is my point )
[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com

Like any form of war, it is rare that revolutions unfold according to some preordained plan. This is because of course, there is usually several plans in operation, which just so happen to have a common interest. After the common interest is achieved, they will often turn on each other. This is particularly important for those who wish to establish a democracy after a dictatorship; unless the revolutionary constitution and new military provide a commitment to liberal and secular rights, the majority - without a familiarity with these concepts - may very well turn to theocracy, following the long-repressed religious leadership. Likewise a broad-based revolution really needs to be careful of its political preferences; being united with political opponents to overthrow a dictatorship is unhelpful if those opponents are worse that the dictator in question.

It is thus the outcomes of the civil war that becomes the deciding factor of what political system will rule a region after a revolution that has multiple participants, and this raises a matter of critical importance for social activists outside of the region of military struggle. The contemporary case of Libya is an illustrative example, starting from a review of the Gaddafi dictatorship, then the Libyan revolution, the current Libyan Civil War, and the relevance for similar countries.

Read more... )

Just posted elsewhere as well.
[identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
A couple right-wing myths running around. Let's dispel them, shall we?

I already posted this in a comment, but here it is again:

Debunked lies )
weswilson: (Default)
[personal profile] weswilson
So unless people are paying attention, a terrible narrative has been falsely constructed. This narrative paints our president as expressing sympathy for the feelings of those who murdered our ambassadors. Though it may surprise some, this is not the case.

A timeline of events:

Timeline behind the cut... as well as comments on the situation )
[identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
The establishment of the state of Libya.

This came about by one of the more interesting forgotten wars of the past, the http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/italo-turkish.htm Italo-Turkish War of 1911-2.
cut for FLs )

States that seem old and/or "backwards/medieval" in the modern age are in reality all of them no older than the 19th Century at the most generous, the 20th Century at the most typical. Thus we should be wary of generalizing about entire regions based on cliches that have never held true and from judging states based on legacies of conquests and dictatorships imposed from abroad. Perhaps the locals will run themselves just as nastily as the people forced on them did. If they do, what precisely changes? If they don't, how do democracies impose dictatorships by brute force on people who want democracy and have any genuine claim to represent freedom at all?
[identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
The Libyan rebel forces who ousted Gaddafi are responsible for numerous war crimes and human rights abuses, this was the "sensational" conclusion of a report made by the expert commission appointed by the UN, published by AP earlier this month. The report was done under the chairmanship of Philippe Kirsch, a Canadian judge, and it investigated the atrocities on both sides during the conflict in Libya.

The report notes that the rebels, even after the official end of the hostilities, continue to commit crimes against prisoners of war and the civil population in a number of regions. What's more, these crimes are increasing with time, and the control on the various armed groups of "rebels" is decreasing.

We should clarify something though. What's so sensational about this report is not its contents but the very fact it was published. In fact it doesn't contain anything particularly new and shocking that we didn't already know. The lack of regular military, police and courts in Libya and the complete impunity of the armed groups, the mass deaths of captured Gaddafi loyalists in the Libyan prisons - all of this has already been reported or at least hinted, and those who cared to look closer into it are already well aware of it. But, as much as the rules of Realpolitik dictate that for the majority of Western politicians the struggle for some abstract "human rights" is usually related to concrete political interests, the publishing of this report by AP can only be explained in one way. Namely, the amount of evidence about the atrocities committed by the "Libyan friends" of the US, UK, France and the Gulf monarchies, has passed a certain threshold beyond which it's already pointless to try to conceal or whitewash it.

And the evidence keeps piling on )
[identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com


Libyans cheer return of international matches
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-soccer-africa-libyatre81j1bh-20120220,0,1982182.story

Libyan soccer fans of all ages came out to cheer the first international matches played in the North African country since the conflict that ousted Muammar Gaddafi amid hope Monday's games would be the start of many more to come.

CSKA Sofia, the 31-times Bulgarian champions, were the first foreign team to play in Libya after the uprising against Gaddafi's rule erupted on February 17 last year.
...

The ominous Red Army conspiracy! )
[identity profile] nairiporter.livejournal.com
So Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who ruled Libya for more than 42 years, is dead. Killed by his captors, as the footage shows. The comments from all corners around the world were quick to follow. One sticks out: "Gaddafi's death was preferable to a protracted trial, where we would hardly see any new revelations that the world didn't already know". It's The Times, one of the most respected newspapers in Britain, one of the most law-abiding countries in the world... or so it claims to be. And it's not alone in that sentiment.

The problem is, even the Nazi who caused World War 2 and the Holocaust had their Nuremberg trial.

Of course, international human rights organizations (and Gaddafi's wife) are now calling for an investigation into the circumstances around his death, and there are accusations that the rebels in whose hands he died had committed a war crime. But that's not the point.

The point is this: the reaction of the public to this event has revealed a lot about ourselves. The predominant sentiment is this: One dictator less, killed like a dog, in a death that was thoroughly documented and watched millions of times on YouTube - and there's nothing wrong with that. The brutal murder and desecration of a corpse, be it of a butcher, by a mob of angry men calling themselves freedom fighters, and claiming to be fighting for a better and more just Libya - and that doesn't make too much of an impression. Clearly, what those guys were fighting for is not Gaddafi's Libya. But it may be different from the Libya you and me are hoping to see, too. It might well be the Libya of the "other" tribe, as opposed to the previous tribe. And that has very little to do with democracy.

An act watched by millions of people while comfortably sitting at their computers in their comfortable offices and homes. Children, too. Good Muslims and good Christians, everyone watched it. Many of them cheered. "One dictator less, more to go". That was the predominant sentiment, along with a deep breath of relief. Don't try to deny it, I saw it here too.

Read more... )
[identity profile] luvdovz.livejournal.com
Not sure to the 100% yet, but indications are strong:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/20/501364/main20123030.shtml

(WARNING: Gory images in linked video).

First reaction: Excellent! Every time a world dictator goes down, it's good for the general atmosphere. Here's hoping a few of the worlds' tyrants are sitting a little less comfortably tonight.

Second reaction: Hooray!

Okay, celebration over.

Now we just have to make sure the factions within the NTC don't start another civil war; the young, untrained men of Libya who took up arms against the Libyan Government relinquish their arms and that actual democratic elections and stable institutions can be established.

No sweat.
[identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
"Colonel Gaddafi is under traveling restriction by the UN and it would not be healthy for Niger, or any other country, to shelter him". The words are of the speaker of the National Transitional Council of Libya. The statement is a clear indication of the immense desire of Libya's new rulers to capture Gaddafi and put him to court. But it also reveals part of their confusion and desperation about the mystery of his location.

As often happens, words are one thing and actions are quite another. Niger is just the next of a long chain of possibilities standing ahead of Gaddafi if he were ever to attempt fleeing across the desert. Not only because the Nigerien authorities have already admitted they have no chance of securing the whole length of their border. But also because Gaddafi has a long and complex history with his African neighbours, and he's got several other options like Chad, Algeria, or why not Burkina Faso, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe or even South Africa.

Read more... )

[identity profile] luvdovz.livejournal.com
Who'll stand at the helm of Libya after Gaddafi? Many scenarios are being tossed around, but one of them sticks out: what about the Libyan king? A monarchy? Wow. Believe it or not, it is an option. They even have a monarch handy: the 49 year old Mohammed El Senussi who's been living in London for the last 23 years.

His family tree has a 200 year history. His grandpa was Mohammed Ibn Ali As-Senussi (let the last guy in the list close the door please). Founder of the Senussi Order, one of the biggest political-religious communities in North Africa. The same lineage includes the first Libyan king Mohammed Idris, whose direct heir is the present Mohammed El Senussi.

He's convinced that the day of his return is approaching after 23 years in exile. He says he was "happy and proud" with his people as he watched them wave the "flag of freedom" in Tripoli. The Royal Libyan flag, that is. It's the same flag that the rebels kept waving in their battles since February. But does it mean they want their king back? The prince is claiming he won't be pressing them about anything, but he'd return "if he's invited". Very noble indeed.

Read more... )
[identity profile] nairiporter.livejournal.com
Now that the rebels have taken Tripoli and the dictator has been ousted, and the UN is conducting meetings with the African Union, EU, the Arab League and the rebels and discussing the new order in Libya, one question remains: where is Gaddafi? Some may say that this is irrelevant now, but a Gaddafi in hiding is potentially a threat to establishing stability in Libya.

So where is he? Is he somewhere around Tripoli? Or in his home town Sirt maybe? Or in the desert, half-way to a neighbouring country? Some have even sent him on a secret trip on a super-secret submarine. There are many versions about his whereabouts popping up like mushrooms after rain. The last time he was heard of, was when it was reported that he was in his reinforced military compound in Tripoli. But then he disappeared. So, the "mad dog" as Reagan once called Gaddafi, is still running wild. And that is something like a pain in the ass for everybody.

Read more... )
[identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
"I support my darling black African woman," ... "I admire and am very proud of the way she leans back and gives orders to the Arab leaders ... Leezza, Leezza, Leezza. ... I love her very much. I admire her and I'm proud of her because she's a black woman of African origin," the colonel [Muammar Gadhafi] told al-Jazeera in an interview in 2007.


While we saw Osama bin Laden (probably) internally jerking off to images of himself being portrayed in the foreign media, and definitely fapping IRL to some home porn DVDs, it seems Gadhafi's diplo-crush must've been much more sophisticated and subtle.

I have no doubt that he'd have gone beyond just trying to strangle eeeh, I mean, massage her neck (like W. did to Frau Merkel), or whistling behind his teeth after her passing by (like Sarko did, as Obama was checking out that nice round butt out there), or even slapping her thigh - if he had the chance to get within a hand's reach of Condie.

One might wonder how long his obsession with her kept him "kinda" liking the West, but he surely did change the tune in recent years, and became Our Crazy Pal, just before he became Doctor Evil of course. But really, if sex-appeal could be used in diplomacy in pursuit of a country's policies, why not? It's a pity that these two lovebirds didn't get to know each other a bit closer. Who knows, maybe a new democracy could've popped out without having to go to such troubles today? You know, rebels, tanks, fighter jets and all that stuff. NOT SEXY! But... who could've known?

...Although, I suspect Condie would've just said:


"Meeeh...."
[identity profile] mintogrubb.livejournal.com
Thank you tcpip, for the link.


For anyone who cares to look, it is the 'vision' of Libya that the rebels who ousted Gadaffi wanted to create. A draft constitution .

It talks about ' democracy' and pledges support for a pluralist, secular state. It makes a declaration for women's equality, and for freedom of expression. seriously, i thought to myself, there is a lot to like.

And then I got to clause 7, and it said Read more... )

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