talkpolitics | Entries tagged with geopolitics

As global tensions intensify, the geopolitical landscape is shifting dramatically. While China asserts itself with growing confidence, and global powers compete for influence, Trump is taking an active diplomatic approach toward Putin, aiming to broker an end to the war in Ukraine. Though talks have reportedly led to a proposed 30-day ceasefire and reduced strikes in the Black Sea, the broader implications suggest something more complex: a reordering of global power reminiscent of post-war summits like Yalta:

Trump's approach reflects a worldview in which powerful nations divide spheres of influence and avoid interfering in each other's regions. This realpolitik mindset raises concerns about the future of Ukraine and, by extension, Europe. If Ukraine's fate is decided without its input, it signals a troubling shift: Europe's autonomy and security could be negotiated away behind closed doors.

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abomvubuso

The global trade war that has just escalated has already had ripple effects, and its long-term consequences are still unfolding. While the immediate impacts were widely analysed, here are some likely long-term effects:

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So in brief, the long-term effects of the trade war sparked under Trump will include fractured global supply chains, weakened international trade rules, rising protectionism, and a shift toward economic nationalism. While some industries will adapt and new will alliances form, global trade will become more fragmented overall, less efficient, and more politicised, potentially slowing global economic growth and innovation significantly.

airiefairie

Hmmm. Greenland possesses significant, largely untapped, mineral resources, inc. rare earth elements, graphite, lithium, and other critical minerals:

PDF MAP

A lot of that is in areas that hold special value and rights to the locals. I know ethnic cleansing for resources is an American tradition, but I kinda hoped that was in the past. But alas.

Trump's lust for taking Greenland is so obvious. It has nothing to do with the security of the US. It is nothing more than a land grab for Greenland's resources. Worse, he is willing to use force, he says, to take Greenland.

The arm-twisting for Ukraine's resources for the sake of a stop of the Russian attacks is also quote telling.

fridi

Now that Trump has been on the right track to surrendering a century's worth of US global power in a matter of weeks, there are other sharks that are sure to step in.

Case in point: When the US cut various USAID programs, they left a lot of local organizations in place that lack funding and technical expertise. China is starting to provide the missing funding and replace the departing Americans in key positions. This plus the belt and road program and other initiatives listed below gives China multiple opportunities.

During the Cold War the US surrounded the USSR with alliances around the globe. I think that China is now doing this against the US with Trump's help. China is getting a lock on global raw materials, through soft power, as opposed to Trump's clumsy "give us yours or else" approach.

U.S. Soft Power Is Spiraling in Asia, With China Filling the Void

China builds space alliances in Africa as Trump cuts foreign aid

It may take a few years. After the tariff threats from Trump towards Columbia, I bet Columbia is working rapidly to expand its coffee trade with China too:

Colombia Coffee Exports Rise in 2024, Driven by China Sales

The examples are all across the board. Trouble for the US is, as nice as "America first" may sound as a slogan, this whole thing is going to bite America in the ass big time in the long run. Global influence in every sense of the phrase is never inexpensive to obtain and maintain, but it is going to be hugely expensive to get it back once nations and trade lines up behind China and others who look at the US as a nation in decline/retreat.

The downside of all this? Folks who believe that America providing policing and security duties for the world was bad are in for a shock once China picks up that mantle.

luzribeiro

The one thing Trump is so terrible for, is that he doesn't shy away from showing America's true face. It's the face that has been masterfully concealed all along but ha always been there, behind the facade. What's different now is that the guy at the helm just doesn't care about saving face, so he shows it as it is.

I'm sorry Ukraine, you were always going to be used as a pawn and cannon fodder in this game of geopolitics, and that's exactly what's happening:

Trump Opens Ukraine Peace Talks—Without Ukraine
"The position of Kyiv’s Western allies had long been that nothing about Ukraine be decided without Ukraine. Evidently, Trump envisions a very different framework for peace talks."

Let's face it, the war was between the US and Russia, with satellite states like the EU in tow. Zelensky has and had no authority in Ukraine, we all know Ukraine is under the US by every single instruction so let's stop pretending like something new just happened.

luzribeiro

US Efforts to Contain Xi’s Push for Tech Supremacy Are Faltering

"China has achieved a global leadership position in five key technologies. That means the world outside the US is increasingly driving Chinese electric vehicles, scrolling the web on Chinese smartphones and powering their homes with Chinese solar panels. For Washington, the risk is that policies aimed at containing China end up isolating the US — and hurting its businesses and consumers."

It was expected. Read Comrade Lenin to understand what is happening today. For example, "Imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism."

The transition from an industrial economy to an economy of dog hairdressers, waiters and Facebook will inevitably lead to technological backwardness. Which is exactly what is happening.

Also, I am greatly amazed at the dementia of Western and pro-Western political elites. For example, the US has made every effort to bring Russia and China closer together (the former has the best weapons, decades ahead of all other weapons, and is the richest country with natural resources. The latter is the world's first economy with advanced technological programs). What the west was doing this for, in terms of western interests, is a mystery.

Also other pro western alliance countries with brainless political elite. For example, Israel. For its own money it actually created an enclave of Muslim terrorists on the territory of Syria near its borders, who already now declare that they will wage an irreconcilable war with the Jews. Or Turkey, also for their money created a wide Kurdish formation, which is irreconcilably set against Turkey.

In general, the West is run by idiots. It is enough to look at the problem of Europe and migrants.

Where is Roosevelt? Where is Churchill? Where are De Gaulle and Mitterrand? Western politicians' brains have disappeared like an atavism. Soon the tail will start to grow.

At some point, Europe will decide that following the US over the cliff is a bad idea. First it will be Eastern and Central Europe, but finally it will be the whole EU as the bureaucrats in Brussels are replaced. After Europe, Japan and South Korea will go.

Eventually, it will be the US and Israel out in the cold together.

mahnmut

Geopolitics analysis has been pointing out for a decade that the United States would withdraw from leading the world.

Biden has accelerated this transition. His legacy is being written in current wars and conflicts that the United States is all but ignoring.

The US is more hands-off than usual in the Middle East. It fears making things worse

Or it could well be the other way round. Maybe the rest of he world withdrew from the outdated notion that it was good to be led by the USA. ;-)

But seriously. Whether it's Trump or Biden next in office, the trend has been set. The US seems to have grown tired of messing around with everybody. It's costly. In all respects imaginable.

Also, if you want a different point of view (or you might call it the standard Putinite talking-point if you like), it seems after the US ~~got its ass kicked by a few thousand goat herders in Afghanistan and had to retreat and withdraw in shame~~... I mean... failed in building up a real functional self-sustaining government, it realized that it cannot win wars and instead must instigate others to fight the wars that it wants. A good old Putinite would now recite to you how America wants to punish Iran for not caving to western exploitation and found a useful idiot in Israel, how Israel is just goading on Iran at the moment waiting for the bigger war to start, just like it is using Ukraine to goad on Russia, who also needs to be punished for not caving in to western exploitation.

You decide which standpoint to adhere to. All I know is, when the wars go nuclear the US military has an advantage, and the US as a whole has the advantage of being far away from the battlefield. As usual.

fridi

Sweden clears final hurdle to join NATO as Hungary approves accession

- Sweden to join NATO after Hungary ratification
- NATO membership will end long military non-alignment
- NATO accession spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine
- Finland already joined NATO last year

Next up... Ukraine.

Funny question I got recently: "I don't know if NATO needs Sweden. Are we going to go to war for them?"

Well, duh. Ain't that the whole point of the alliance? If one NATO nation is attacked, the rest are treaty-bound to come to their aid, militarily. Every new nation admitted to NATO strengthens the alliance, and leaves Russia with fewer options should the Russkies wish to continue with her territorial expansion ambitions.

So yeah. If they are attacked, then yes the rest will be required defend them. If you live in a NATO member state, you may be required to fight for Sweden, and if that proves to be necessary, you will not be given a choice in the matter. If you do not wish to potentially fight to defend Sweden, I strongly urge you to emigrate to a non-NATO nation.

As for the broader picture. Countries applying for NATO at this time say the intelligent world knows exactly what Putin's plans are. Everyone except Trump of course. Of course I wouldn't go as far as to claim he'd pull the US out of NATO if re-elected, but the tragedy is, his sheep in politics know he'd rather undermine America's allies and her standing in the world to earn points among his base. And his base know it but support him regardless. A 2nd Trump term would mean it'd potentially take a huge effort to recover from the damage Trump would cause in Europe and around the world. But that's a separate story.

fridi

China continues be seen as a legitimate broker of peace*, while the US is seen as an obstacle to peace in many respects. Obviously China has ulterior motives and self-interests, but so does the US - and they are not an honest broker in any situation whatsoever.

Each are trying to satisfy their own interests, at the expense of others. The leaked documents on Mexico show that the US is hostile/negative to the Mexican president because he has decided to engage in public spending at the cost of US business interests. Israel and Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Venezuela. Cuba. Iraq. Go down the list.

The US has waning credibility, while China continues to accrue soft power. Like it or not, it's happening. You can't blame China for seizing on this opportunity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5D6_gDMVwQ

* Of course Xi Jinping's idea of peace in Ukraine is a unilateral ceasefire and freezing the war in place, which is a win for Moscow. We're not surprised at all, are we?

airiefairie

The technological singularity, a theoretical event where artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, would have profound geopolitical implications. While the singularity is still a hypothetical concept, it is a topic of increasing concern for policymakers and academics alike.

One of the most significant geopolitical implications of the technological singularity is the potential for increased competition between states. Countries that are able to develop and deploy advanced artificial intelligence technologies could gain a significant advantage over their peers. This could lead to a race for AI dominance, similar to the arms race during the Cold War.

Moreover, the development of AI could lead to significant changes in the balance of power between states. Countries with access to advanced AI technologies could gain significant leverage in international negotiations, or even use AI to engage in cyber-attacks or other forms of aggression.

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fridi

In the current issue of Newsweek, Dan Perry provides a developed opinion piece on revanchism, "the desire to acquire or reacquire land", and its current place in international conflicts, The Astounding Gluttony of Giants:

https://www.newsweek.com/astounding-gluttony-giants-1731380

"Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has unleashed hell upon Ukraine, and on his own information-deprived people, in a bid to enlarge the world's largest country, which already stretches across 11 time zones.

Closely watching is China's Xi Jinping, who rules the world's most populous country with 1.4 billion people, has destroyed freedom in Hong Kong (violating a commitment to preserve "one country, two systems"), and is sorely tempted to gobble up Taiwan.

To the west, it would be a wonder if India and Pakistan, two nuclear powers which are the second and fifth most populous on Earth respectively, don't eventually go to war over Kashmir, a province that would barely move the needle for either by any metric.

Is nothing ever enough? Is it worth sacrificing a single life to add to these countries' already huge numbers?"

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asthfghl

In the last ten years, the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo has flared up more than once. In most cases, the spark starts from the introduction of new border rules for people or goods, but the deeper reason lies in the unclear relationship between Belgrade and Pristina. Politicians on both sides routinely refer to the danger emanating from the other side, and swords are brandished on a regular basis.Then things quickly calm down again. And so on and so forth.

This time, however, the geopolitical frameworks wherein these well-worn conflicts have been playing out for ages are somewhat different - Russia's war against Ukraine and its unclear outcome have created a sense of insecurity in the West, which is also affecting the Balkans. Naturally, people are starting to get concerned that Putin might be intending to open a second front in the Balkans to unbalance the confused European resistance.

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kiaa

The purpose of the Chinese military exercise is to demonstrate China's capabilities. China wants to show that it has the military might that will allow it to conquer Taiwan and impose its interests in the region. I'm not convinced that the actions taken now are indicative of what China would do from here on out - the military exercise is just too much of a demonstration. The Chinese army would not reveal its cards enough to show how it would take the island.

But now we see that the threat is increasing. Entering the 12-mile zone around Taiwan is a novelty. The use of live munitions and highlighting the precision with which the missiles can reach their targets is meant to show that a new scenario is already being developed.

Yet attacking is one thing, taking over a country or an island is quite another. So is China really now capable of not just attacking Taiwan, but actually taking it over?

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asthfghl

The whole story is actually quite absurd. Turkey and Greece are members of the same defense alliance, NATO, created to defend against a common enemy. Yet the two neighboring countries regularly find themselves on the brink of war - pitted against each other. Exactly how threatened Greece feels can be seen in its defense spending. With expenditures totaling 3.8% of its GDP, Greece actually ranks first among all NATO member states in this respect.

The conflict is of course about territory and thus, resources. Both countries have claims on some islands in the eastern Mediterranean, they're quarrelling about maritime boundaries and related rights to important natural resources such as oil and gas. In 1996, the two countries again came close to all-out war over the small and uninhabited island of Imiya. The conflict then escalated again in 2020. The dispatch of Turkish drilling ships looking for natural gas periodically increases tensions and is perceived by Greece as a provocation.

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mahnmut

And of course it's a geopolitical move. There's nothing surprising about any of this, including China's (and Russia's) reactions.

Naturally, China has warned of 'disastrous' consequences. Also more sabre rattling is being noted, planes and warships being on the move around the Strait of Taiwan, and the US assuring everybody they're not impressed.

China has suspended imports of hundreds of Taiwan products, too.

Curiously, Pelosi's visit has prompted demonstrations of BOTH support and opposition in Taipei itself. Pro-unification supporters in Taipei were seen carrying signs that read, among other things, 'The United States should not interfere in China's internal affairs.'

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mahnmut

Hundreds of pages have already been written about the war in Ukraine. And quite rightly so. There is no doubt in the conclusions of most analysts that the world after this war, if it does not escalate into a world conflict that would wipe us all out, will not be the one we've known until now.

It is also true that making predictions today about what awaits us tomorrow is rather risky, but at least we can take a glipse of the processes that are emerging.

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kiaa

Not sure where the "Putin's time is over, Putin is in a corner" adage is coming from, exactly.

The way I'm reading this, it would appear that we're headed into a scenario whereby Russia will retake Eastern Europe, via Ukraine.

I suspect that once China moves on Taiwan, Russia will move on Ukraine, and from there will mount a strategy for taking back much of Eastern Europe.

The feckless West will be unwilling and unable to defend Ukraine and the NATO partners in Eastern Europe.

I further believe this will happen in 2022 or in the decade beyond, as Russia and China are certainly seeing an opportunity here and they'd be willing to exploit these circumstances where the West is basically in a position without a useful move to make, and a number of leading Western countries are currently led by indecisive Neville Chamberlains.

So the window of opportunity is very narrow to accomplish the goals of China and Russia and in this sense yes, I agree Putin and his buddy Xi are kind of pressured to act fast, but that's all the urgency I can see from their standpoint, otherwise they're still in a better position.

kiaa

Putin Says American Reporter Is Too ‘Beautiful’ to Understand His Very Clever Point

Aside from his usual misoginyst shenanigans, the more important point from this interview is that Putin has denied Russia ever having used gas supplies as a political weapon to pump up energy prices and put Europe to its knees. The facts show otherwise, though.

So why have European gas market prices suddenly exploded? Currently, Gazprom is providing services only to those who have long-term contracts with them and has doomed the world to unimaginable price spikes. So what's the Kremlin's strategic goal?

This is very similar to an advertising campaign: "All those in Europe who have signed long-term contracts with us can now happily rub their hands," Putin says. His words were duly parroted by Gazprom's deputy chief and the country's permanent representative to the EU: If you have signed long-term contracts with us, you would now be enjoying good prices.

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abomvubuso

If you haven't heard, Australia has caused a diplomatic row with France by ditching a multi-billion-dollar order for French submarines in favor of an alternative deal with the United States and Britain.

Naturally, France is angry. It has called Australia a traitor, has recalled its ambassadors from the US and Oz, and all in all, things are going bad between those pals. And you thought Biden would be different from Trump?

This is all about China of course. The US wants to secure that China is being held in the Pacific, and fast. Meanwhile, France as a Pacific and Indian ocean nation also wants to play an important role in Indian-Pacific affairs, containing China without antagonising China. This is also about America's willingness to treat allies as allies, not vassals; it is about honesty and openness in international affairs.

It's a big story really. And all these tensions and clashes of interests have now surfaced in a nasty way.

We'll see what will happen. I'm thinking China is the happiest from this development. Because, you know, if your rivals are quarrelling, you know...

Oh, as for my question in the title. Macron now finds himself in a strange place – both vindicated by what has happened and humiliated by it. He has been saying for almost 4 years that NATO is "brain dead" (curiously, also Trump's words) and Europe can no longer rely on the United States to defend, or even consider, European interests.

He did want to strengthen France's role in the Pacific partly because he feared that Washington – whichever President might be in power – would stumble into a confrontational approach to China. He wanted Europe to have its own voice in western-Chinese relations. Which is understandable. But he probably over-reached himself. The US has now, in effect, slapped him down. And there's nothing much he can do about any of it.

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MONTHLY TOPIC:
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DAILY QUOTE:

"Clearly, the penguins have finally gone too far. First they take our hearts, now they’re tanking the global economy one smug waddle at a time. Expect fish sanctions by Friday."

(nairiporter)

April 2025

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Summary

asthfghl - The new Yalta +3 comments
abomvubuso - What will be the long term effects of the current global trade war? +7 comments
airiefairie - This is what they want +5 comments
fridi - Just on topic: China filling the vacuum
luzribeiro - Cards on the table +1 comment
luzribeiro - How's that tech supremacy contest going? +3 comments
mahnmut - Isn't this what everyone wanted anyway? +8 comments
fridi - Welcome to the club, Sweden
fridi - Who's selling themselves better as Mr Peacemaker +5 comments
airiefairie - Geoimplications of AI +2 comments
fridi - The Astounding Gluttony of Giants +3 comments
asthfghl - Russia to open a new front? +1 comment
kiaa - Some thoughts on China's actions around Taiwan +1 comment
asthfghl - How Turkey became indispensable
mahnmut - Just a few snippets on Pelosi's visit to Taiwan +3 comments
mahnmut - The world post-Ukraine +7 comments
kiaa - Russia/China on the offensive +3 comments
kiaa - The gas weapon +4 comments
abomvubuso - Was Macron right about NATO? +7 comments

Talk politics.

A place to discuss politics without egomaniacal mods.

Entries tagged with geopolitics

The new Yalta

What will be the long term effects of the current global trade war?

This is what they want

Just on topic: China filling the vacuum

Cards on the table

How's that tech supremacy contest going?

Isn't this what everyone wanted anyway?

Welcome to the club, Sweden

Who's selling themselves better as Mr Peacemaker

Geoimplications of AI

The Astounding Gluttony of Giants

Russia to open a new front?

Some thoughts on China's actions around Taiwan

How Turkey became indispensable

Just a few snippets on Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

The world post-Ukraine

Russia/China on the offensive

The gas weapon

Was Macron right about NATO?

Credits & Style Info

Links

April 2025

Summary