Africa's Colonel
11/9/11 23:52![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpolitics"Colonel Gaddafi is under traveling restriction by the UN and it would not be healthy for Niger, or any other country, to shelter him". The words are of the speaker of the National Transitional Council of Libya. The statement is a clear indication of the immense desire of Libya's new rulers to capture Gaddafi and put him to court. But it also reveals part of their confusion and desperation about the mystery of his location.
As often happens, words are one thing and actions are quite another. Niger is just the next of a long chain of possibilities standing ahead of Gaddafi if he were ever to attempt fleeing across the desert. Not only because the Nigerien authorities have already admitted they have no chance of securing the whole length of their border. But also because Gaddafi has a long and complex history with his African neighbours, and he's got several other options like Chad, Algeria, or why not Burkina Faso, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe or even South Africa.
But Niger has come to the front at this point, after the media around the world reported that a particularly large military convoy of Gaddafi loyalists had crossed the desert in the southern part of Libya, and fled the country. The local Nigerien authorities hastened to assure the public that the Colonel wasn't among the refugees, which is wise, since there's an international arrest warrant issued by Interpol.
The US ambassador in Niger has called for the detention of all high ranking members of the former regime so that they could be prosecuted by Libyan court. But meanwhile he admitted that the US has no info about Gaddafi's location, whether he's still inside Libya or has fled. NATO's chairman Rasmussen also said that the alliance has no information either. So it's a complete mystery. And he may've transferred part of the gold away, too.
Then, there's Burkina Faso. It became subject of various conspiracy theories because some info popped up that BF could've negotiated granting political asylum to Gaddafi. Some sources from the French military (cited by BBC and Reuters) claim that the actual final destination of the mentioned convoy is exactly Burkina Faso. The BF minister of communications Traore hurried to deny the rumours that Gaddafi might've already arrived there. He said they've never ever offered him asylum and they've got no info if he's planning to attempt entering their country. Whether that's to be trusted or not, I leave to you. But it certainly adds more to the confusion.
Another southern neighbour of Libya, Chad looks like a possible destination too. But there are some problems with that. Officially, the country has recognised the National Transitional Council of Libya, and moreover the Toyota wars which the Colonel fought with Chad must've closed their doors to him a long time ago. But on the other hand, the Chadian president Idriss Deby owes a lot to Gaddafi, who not only helped his ascent to power but also saved him from being toppled, and more than once. There were persistent reports that Deby had "lended" some mercenaries to Gaddafi, especially in the final months of the Libyan civil war. Some of those mercenaries are now in Libyan hospitals, waiting for justice.
Let's look further to the south-east, to Sudan. It looks like a probable Gaddafi ally, especially since the president Al-Bashir is also being sought by the international court for crimes in Darfur. Another circumstance is the fact that the main investor in Sudan is now China, not any western country, which means that some economic sanctions on Sudan wouldn't have such serious consequences, in case they dare to host Gaddafi.
To the west, Algeria is a somewhat reliable destination, and it has already granted asylum to his wife and three of his children. The Algerian authorities are openly hostile to the Libyan rebels, mainly because of the typical dislike of an authoritarian regime for revolutions of any sort. But still, the Algerians are assuring the international community that the reason they gave asylum to Gaddafi's relatives is "entirely humanitarian". The Algerian ambassador to UN explained that his country has always strived to observe the "sacred rule of hospitality" between the Sahara countries. Very convenient indeed.
Finally, we reach South Africa. The situation here is a bit more specific. The Colonel does enjoy some sympathy here, mainly because of his staunch support in the struggle against Apartheid in the 90s. Moreover, as a major economic force on the continent and a contender for the leadership in the African Union, SA has no interest in being looked at as some pawn in someone's game, and in fact Zuma even tried to mediate a peaceful solution of the Libyan conflict. But the bloody development of the revolution and Gaddafi's sudden demise and the subsequent revelations about his atrocities would hardly make the South Africans very perceptive to any potential asylum requests from him. Furthermore, as a member of the International Court, SA would hardly venture to grant him safe haven. The question with a trip so far to the south is also problematic - he wouldn't find it possible to take any flights through international airspace, and crossing the entire continent by land would be too risky. And lastly, i can't guarantee his safety here ;)
But all that said, there's a deeper reason why so many African countries are being named as possible saviours of the Colonel. And that's his long-time policy of generous populism, supported with huge amounts of cash. Ever since as early as the 90s he realisd that wealth and preaching alone would be insufficient for him to gain special influence on the Arab peninsula, he shifted his focus to his African neighbours. And he had better success there. The Libyan regime used its oil revenue to make enormous investments in building roads and infrastructure and financing the African Union. In 2008 at the annual forum of the AU, the smug Gaddafi "allowed" his guests to crown him as "the king of all kings".
It's no surprise that the AU, this institution which, along with the Arab League, is being largely relied on for mediating the situation in Libya and helping build the new society there, is still adamant in its refusal to recognise the Libyan rebels as the new legitimate rulers of the country. Earlier this year the Ugandan president Museveni called Gaddafi "a true nationalist". He made some statements in support of the Libyan dictator, saying that he preferred nationalists ruling the African countries, as opposed to "puppets that are being led by foreign interests".
Gaddafi himself has repeatedly vowed that he'd "never leave the land of his ancestors". The last time he was heard of, in some phone interview for a Syrian TV channel, he repeated this mantra once again. It's been reported by that media that his call came from nowhere else by Libya itself. So the hunt continues...
As often happens, words are one thing and actions are quite another. Niger is just the next of a long chain of possibilities standing ahead of Gaddafi if he were ever to attempt fleeing across the desert. Not only because the Nigerien authorities have already admitted they have no chance of securing the whole length of their border. But also because Gaddafi has a long and complex history with his African neighbours, and he's got several other options like Chad, Algeria, or why not Burkina Faso, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe or even South Africa.
But Niger has come to the front at this point, after the media around the world reported that a particularly large military convoy of Gaddafi loyalists had crossed the desert in the southern part of Libya, and fled the country. The local Nigerien authorities hastened to assure the public that the Colonel wasn't among the refugees, which is wise, since there's an international arrest warrant issued by Interpol.
The US ambassador in Niger has called for the detention of all high ranking members of the former regime so that they could be prosecuted by Libyan court. But meanwhile he admitted that the US has no info about Gaddafi's location, whether he's still inside Libya or has fled. NATO's chairman Rasmussen also said that the alliance has no information either. So it's a complete mystery. And he may've transferred part of the gold away, too.
Then, there's Burkina Faso. It became subject of various conspiracy theories because some info popped up that BF could've negotiated granting political asylum to Gaddafi. Some sources from the French military (cited by BBC and Reuters) claim that the actual final destination of the mentioned convoy is exactly Burkina Faso. The BF minister of communications Traore hurried to deny the rumours that Gaddafi might've already arrived there. He said they've never ever offered him asylum and they've got no info if he's planning to attempt entering their country. Whether that's to be trusted or not, I leave to you. But it certainly adds more to the confusion.
Another southern neighbour of Libya, Chad looks like a possible destination too. But there are some problems with that. Officially, the country has recognised the National Transitional Council of Libya, and moreover the Toyota wars which the Colonel fought with Chad must've closed their doors to him a long time ago. But on the other hand, the Chadian president Idriss Deby owes a lot to Gaddafi, who not only helped his ascent to power but also saved him from being toppled, and more than once. There were persistent reports that Deby had "lended" some mercenaries to Gaddafi, especially in the final months of the Libyan civil war. Some of those mercenaries are now in Libyan hospitals, waiting for justice.
Let's look further to the south-east, to Sudan. It looks like a probable Gaddafi ally, especially since the president Al-Bashir is also being sought by the international court for crimes in Darfur. Another circumstance is the fact that the main investor in Sudan is now China, not any western country, which means that some economic sanctions on Sudan wouldn't have such serious consequences, in case they dare to host Gaddafi.
To the west, Algeria is a somewhat reliable destination, and it has already granted asylum to his wife and three of his children. The Algerian authorities are openly hostile to the Libyan rebels, mainly because of the typical dislike of an authoritarian regime for revolutions of any sort. But still, the Algerians are assuring the international community that the reason they gave asylum to Gaddafi's relatives is "entirely humanitarian". The Algerian ambassador to UN explained that his country has always strived to observe the "sacred rule of hospitality" between the Sahara countries. Very convenient indeed.
Finally, we reach South Africa. The situation here is a bit more specific. The Colonel does enjoy some sympathy here, mainly because of his staunch support in the struggle against Apartheid in the 90s. Moreover, as a major economic force on the continent and a contender for the leadership in the African Union, SA has no interest in being looked at as some pawn in someone's game, and in fact Zuma even tried to mediate a peaceful solution of the Libyan conflict. But the bloody development of the revolution and Gaddafi's sudden demise and the subsequent revelations about his atrocities would hardly make the South Africans very perceptive to any potential asylum requests from him. Furthermore, as a member of the International Court, SA would hardly venture to grant him safe haven. The question with a trip so far to the south is also problematic - he wouldn't find it possible to take any flights through international airspace, and crossing the entire continent by land would be too risky. And lastly, i can't guarantee his safety here ;)
But all that said, there's a deeper reason why so many African countries are being named as possible saviours of the Colonel. And that's his long-time policy of generous populism, supported with huge amounts of cash. Ever since as early as the 90s he realisd that wealth and preaching alone would be insufficient for him to gain special influence on the Arab peninsula, he shifted his focus to his African neighbours. And he had better success there. The Libyan regime used its oil revenue to make enormous investments in building roads and infrastructure and financing the African Union. In 2008 at the annual forum of the AU, the smug Gaddafi "allowed" his guests to crown him as "the king of all kings".
It's no surprise that the AU, this institution which, along with the Arab League, is being largely relied on for mediating the situation in Libya and helping build the new society there, is still adamant in its refusal to recognise the Libyan rebels as the new legitimate rulers of the country. Earlier this year the Ugandan president Museveni called Gaddafi "a true nationalist". He made some statements in support of the Libyan dictator, saying that he preferred nationalists ruling the African countries, as opposed to "puppets that are being led by foreign interests".
Gaddafi himself has repeatedly vowed that he'd "never leave the land of his ancestors". The last time he was heard of, in some phone interview for a Syrian TV channel, he repeated this mantra once again. It's been reported by that media that his call came from nowhere else by Libya itself. So the hunt continues...
