talkpolitics | Entries tagged with war

Three years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both sides of the front are facing a silent but devastating battle - not over territory, but over the will to fight.

A recent investigation by the independent Russian outlet Verstka paints a harrowing picture of violence within the Russian army. Commanders have reportedly executed, tortured, and even forced their own soldiers into "gladiator fights" to enforce obedience. According to Verstka, more than a hundred Russian servicemen have been accused of murdering or torturing comrades, with at least 150 confirmed deaths - and likely many more unreported.

LINK (ru)

The report details systematic brutality: soldiers thrown into pits, beaten for hours, or used as human shields in suicidal missions. Those who refused to obey were labeled "zeroed" - a grim military slang for elimination. Despite thousands of official complaints submitted to Russia's military prosecutor’s office, almost no senior officers have faced accountability.

On the other side of the conflict, a different form of despair is taking shape. Nearly 100,000 Ukrainian men aged 18 to 22 have reportedly left the country in just two months after Kyiv relaxed border restrictions this summer. The policy change, intended to encourage voluntary service and address a shortage of troops, may instead have spurred a quiet exodus.

LINK (en)

For both Russia and Ukraine, the war has become a test not only of military strength but of moral endurance. Many Russian soldiers appear trapped between fear of their own commanders and fear of the front. Many young Ukrainians, meanwhile, seem unwilling to sacrifice their futures in a war that shows no sign of ending.

As these two nations continue to bleed - one through coercion, the other through flight - the conflict reveals an unspoken truth: this is the war no one truly wants to fight.

nairiporter

The US is visibly ramping up its military presence in the Middle East, sending more fighter jets and warships to the region. The big question is: is this just pressure tactics, or is Trump actually preparing for a military strike against Iran?

So far, Trump has remained unusually silent, which suggests something serious might be in the works. His administration, normally loud about its plans, is now keeping things under wraps. There's speculation that Trump may be leaning toward military action, especially after a recent national security meeting at the White House.

It's clear the pressure on Iran is increasing. US and Israeli air capabilities are reportedly stronger than ever, with added refueling capacity allowing extended operations over Iranian airspace.

Opinions in the US are divided. Some, like Democratic congressman Seth Moulton, warn against getting into another Middle East conflict and argue that diplomacy is the better path, especially to keep Iran's nuclear ambitions in check. Others, like Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, are calling for a decisive end to Iran's nuclear program, even if that means military force.

From a military standpoint, destroying Iran's underground nuclear sites would require more than just airstrikes, likely special ground forces. And any attack risks retaliation against the 40,000 US troops already in the region.

Within Trump's own camp, there's tension. Isolationists argue against war, saying it would go against Trump's campaign promise to keep the US out of foreign entanglements.

abomvubuso

Through a barrage of the warnings that have been circulating in the media lately about a possible war with Russia within the next few years, the European member states of NATO have already begun laying the foundations for defensive military actions in case Russian troops ever set foot on the territory of the alliance.

"Russia is preparing for war with the West", Bruno Kahl said last month, the head of Germany's foreign intelligence service. But it is unlikely to be a large-scale attack on NATO territory, he added. Moscow could opt for a limited incursion or step up its hybrid warfare tactics to test the alliance's resolve.

NATO is trying to prepare for both scenarios: an all-out war, or the use of less obvious techniques designed to undermine internal stability in the alliance's more vulnerable member countries.

( Read more... )

abomvubuso

You may've heard of this map trying to record every battle ever fought throughout recorded human history. Based on Wikipedia:

LINK

fridi

Russia could attack NATO by end of decade, German intelligence chief warns

Read between the lines. This is what militaries and politicians say to encourage more to be spent on defense. Russia isn't in a position to take on even Italy by itself, nevermind NATO collectively.

Separate discussion, yeah Germany absolutely needs to be spending more on defense. Meeting the 2% of GDP minimum shouldn't be taking long to achieve, especially after relying on its allies for so long to carry the burden of defense.

Some 100 billion (which it hasn't even lived up to) one off special fund to try and right the ship is a great start but it is a yearly 2% at a minimum that will make a difference.

mahnmut

Geopolitics analysis has been pointing out for a decade that the United States would withdraw from leading the world.

Biden has accelerated this transition. His legacy is being written in current wars and conflicts that the United States is all but ignoring.

The US is more hands-off than usual in the Middle East. It fears making things worse

Or it could well be the other way round. Maybe the rest of he world withdrew from the outdated notion that it was good to be led by the USA. ;-)

But seriously. Whether it's Trump or Biden next in office, the trend has been set. The US seems to have grown tired of messing around with everybody. It's costly. In all respects imaginable.

Also, if you want a different point of view (or you might call it the standard Putinite talking-point if you like), it seems after the US ~~got its ass kicked by a few thousand goat herders in Afghanistan and had to retreat and withdraw in shame~~... I mean... failed in building up a real functional self-sustaining government, it realized that it cannot win wars and instead must instigate others to fight the wars that it wants. A good old Putinite would now recite to you how America wants to punish Iran for not caving to western exploitation and found a useful idiot in Israel, how Israel is just goading on Iran at the moment waiting for the bigger war to start, just like it is using Ukraine to goad on Russia, who also needs to be punished for not caving in to western exploitation.

You decide which standpoint to adhere to. All I know is, when the wars go nuclear the US military has an advantage, and the US as a whole has the advantage of being far away from the battlefield. As usual.

abomvubuso

You may've heard of this map trying to record every battle ever fought throughout recorded human history. Based on Wikipedia:

LINK

mahnmut

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-putin-sokolov-latest-b2419381.html

Get the friggin' F16s over to Ukraine pronto. More tanks, more heavy equipment. NOW is the time to kick Russia out of Ukraine before winter sets in. Once it does Ukrainian forces will be bogged down.

This is particularly valid especially if NKorea sends aid to Russia, Ukraine would need an overwhelming force to push the Ruskies out.

That said, the Russians where supposed to wrap this up in weeks. Now it's the other way around, question is when the Ukrainians will wrap it up themselves. Putin miscalculated the Ukrainians, and Western resolve.

Still a lot of work to be done.

kiaa

I know this isn't supposed to be funny, and maybe in a way it isn't - while these are Ukraine-war related memes, they say a ton of truths.

( Read more... )

fridi

"War is organized chaos," these words belongt o one of the deputy commanders to Gen. Eisenhower after the Normandy landing in 1944. Now I'd say the battlefield in Ukraine is a good example of this rule. One of the most striking features of the current war is how ill-prepared the Russian military has been. No Plan B in case things don't go according to plan. The other thing that sticks out is how slow the Russian military has been to make adjustments and adapt.

This, according to an analysis published by the Royal Joint Services Institute, a leading British defense think tank. Those analysts cooperate with the General Staff of Ukraine in preparing operational analyses for the Ukrainians and therefore are privy to details, some of which are still classified:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-publications/library/library-blog/posts/think-tank-reports-on-the-invasion-of-ukraine/

( Read more... )

fridi

In light of the crushing failures of the Russian army on the front in Ukraine over the past month, the Kremlin has again decided to change tactics. Russia is no longer trying to seize Ukrainian territories, but to destroy civilian infrastructure. Formally, the occasion is the so-called "terror act" on the Crimean Bridge, which took place on October 8.

However, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, as early as October 2 and 3, Russian troops received instructions to prepare massive missile strikes on Ukraine's civil infrastructure. The military units of the Russian strategic and long-range aviation had been ordered to prepare for the launch of massive missile attacks well in advance. Among the main targets were critical civil infrastructure and central areas of densely populated Ukrainian cities.

( Read more... )

kiaa

I know this isn't supposed to be funny, and maybe in a way it isn't - while these are Ukraine-war related memes, they say a ton of truths.

( Read more... )

tcpip

The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, does not believe that Ukrainians are a separate nationality from Russians and therefore re-integrating Ukraine into Russia is justified, regardless of the will of the people who actually live there. This ideological justification is used for the strategic and economic gains that Putin and his allies assume will flow from the annexation of Ukraine, starting in 2014 (with Crimea) and most recently with the "special military operation" of this year.

Following a succession of massive failures on the northern front which attempted to take Kyiv, Russia has concentrated on the south and east of Ukraine. However, in recent weeks the Ukrainians have taken back a great deal of territory in the northeast and have made some inroads in the south as well. Putin is no fool; he knows that he is losing ground rapidly and even oblasts that have been under pro-Russian forces since 2014 (Luhansk, Donestk) are under threat. An hour ago from the time of writing, in a national address, a "partial mobilization" has been declared bringing in all reservists, apparently some 300,000 soldiers.

Further, Putin has called for referenda to be held in the Luhansk, Kherson, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions, at least to the extent that they are controlled by Russia already. There is little doubt that these will be anything but a sham, as there will be no opposition point of view to speak of, they will not be conducted by an international third party, the electoral commission will not be independent, and so forth. But it is the content of the referenda that is important; that the regions become an integral part of Russia.

There is a not-very-subtle threat in this. Putin also said says will use "all available means" if Russia's territorial integrity is threatened, adding: "We are not bluffing". Do you see how this works? The annexed regions of Ukraine will become part of Russia, and any attempt to remove the occupiers will be seen as an attack on Russia itself. "All available means", includes nuclear weapons.

It is not the first time the nuclear threat has been raised; four days after the invasion earlier this year Putin ordered Russia's nuclear arsenal to go into a "special mode of combat duty", and in April - after Germany deployed tanks to Ukraine - Putin said that military provocation from outside of Ukraine would result in pre-emptive nuclear action. But this is the most serious; the aggressive bear has been wounded and is more liable than ever to lash out without reason.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-21/vladimir-putin-announces-partial-military-mobilisation/101463346

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-21/russia-plan-to-annex-ukraine-separatist-regions-referendum/101460210

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/21/7368403/

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/apr/27/angry-putin-wields-energy-nuclear-threats-against-/

oportet

They said war is hell. They said no one wins in war. They said war, huh, yeah, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

They were right - were.

For the American politician, the current war in Ukraine is almost too good to be true - look at this hand full of aces;

1) They get their war - glorious war against one of our all time favorite bad guys - a war that enriches their buddies in the war lobby and also allows them to go on tv and use big tough war words like 'javelin' (which I'm convinced they receive some sort of commission for mentioning incessantly).

2) None of those pesky complaints about the body bags coming back - subcontracting out war means those body bags are someone elses problem!

3) Zero questioning or protest from anyone who isn't an Agent of Putin! Toughest question from a journalist is 'what more can we do?' - and the answer to that is more javelins. *turns to camera 3* Javelins, the name you trust.

4) Bonus for Republicans - should everything go to shit (which considering past performance is more likely than not), the other side has the wheel. Points are points.

All that being said - I'm sure they won't get addicted. If the opportunity presented itself to deescalate - we're all confidant the aforementioned incentives would not cause them any hesitation.

dancesofthelight

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60967463
( Cut for length and vehemence )

There is nothing atypical in the aftermath of Russian 'de-Nazification; of Ukraine that hasn't been since since the Danilovichi decided to bid to be 'regatherers of the Russian land.' Moscow learned well from the sons of Genghis Khan. To be sure, the world will have to live with Russia and give it a license to mass murder on a gargantuan scale, while not even pretending to count the victims of rape and murder as human, as is done with the USA. But that does not mean people should be allowed to lie to themselves about what the heirs of Ivan Kalita have always been and will always be.

This is Russian power, red in tooth and claw, and grinning with the aftermath of the murders of its victims. Feeble in conquest but able to rival the Mongol hordes of the Borjigins in slaughter in defeat as well as victory. This is what took Russia from a tiny strip of the Grand Principality of Vladimir-Suzdal to reaching the Pacific and planting fortresses upon it. Nobody should do anyone the disservice, least of all the Ivans who are drawn into this litany of atrocity by a regime that has always planted an iron boot on their necks and shot them for objecting to being choked to death, of pretending that this is unusual or exceptional in Russian political or military culture.

It is not, and it never will be. It is simply sacred autocracy in its standard levels of cruelty and horror, no more and no less.

dancesofthelight

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/25/world/ukraine-russia-war

( Russia's armies are falling apart and it has only itself to blame, nichevo. )

Russia has chosen to vindicate its strength in the methods of the old school that worked so well for Tsars and Soviet premiers in times past when it was free to indulge in wanton savagery at will. It even did so in the 21st Century where it repeatedly and gruesome proved that Arab bodies are only politically useful if Washington's airpower and ground troops kill them, otherwise states are free to outdo Genghis Khan at leisure because they're only Arabs, who gives a fuck? And as it turned out when it tried this shit with people who are equal or superior to it in technology and willingness and ability to fight, its power is a sham and it was really, all along, indulging in wanton savagery out of the old school because the world doesn't care if anyone other than the USA does it.

This is the big problem with relying on rule of terror as one's preferred method of the first resort. It works if it wins, if it fails it makes people look laughably stupid and accelerates the countdown of the doomsday clock to the decline and fall of the state in question. This was so for Nicholas II and Ivan IV and even Mikhail Gorbachev, whose attempts to wield the army and KGB against Soviet dissidents failed and so did the military-police putsch to remove him.

What happens in a world where both Russia and the United States have indulged in idiotic wars of regime change that leave their armies embarrassed and mark the failure of old model imperialism by the crash of the bomb?

ernads

Things continue to be a Mess on this front. I'm watching with great concern the war in Ukraine as it's getting bloodier and bloodier with each passing day.

I'm also angry about the fact that out delicate international position prevents us from actually assisting in the fight against Russia. Because, we do have some of the most sophisticated defense weapons in the world, but we are not able to provide them for Ukraine's defense.

Because if we do, Russia will turn on us in force, and our defense and even survival is dependent on our activates in Syria and Iran. The one think we have learned, acutely,is that Israel can't expect or depend on support from the world, the US included, in case of a war with Iran.

Anyhow, it's painful for me, cause I really yearn to be able to help them. Politics are so dirty sometimes. They really are.

I am not sure if Bennet is still in a good negotiation position, but I pray he is doing something at least on that front.

Sigh

asthfghl

Decoding the 'Z' — the mysterious Russian military symbol that's been co-opted by Russia's nationalist movement

Seems like the pro-invasion folks in Russia are using this "Z" symbol to denote themselves. Most likely, it comes from the way their troops are distinguishing themselves from the Ukrainian military. At least that's how the origin story of the symbol goes.

One version is that the Z comes from "za pobedy" (for victory). Another interpretation is that it means "Zapad" (west), i.e. they're going west. To teach the West a lesson, you know.

The symbol can be spotted on cars, t-shirts, on grafitti and elsewhere in Russia. Even some businesses are using it. Even pro-Russian Serbs in Belgrade were waving signs with it to express their support for Putin and their hatred for NATO.

( Read more... )

dancesofthelight

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1496679171384295426

I truly thought that KGB son of a bitch would take the sure thing with Belarus and draw back. Instead he's opened Europe's largest war since 1945 and openly signaled that in his ideal world Ukraine will no longer exist and he's doing his best in Russian style to make his ideal world come true. This is one of the biggest slaps at the post-1991 order since the USA invaded Iraq in 2003, and the consequences are going to be equally, if not more profound. The premise that war is folly, economically and culturally self-destructive and marching societies to their destruction is true at a rational level, and yet Russia and its madman in Moscow have shown that it does not care. Not even two days ago Putin declared that the existence of all the former SSRs as independent states was a great historical atrocity against Russia.

Now he's shown he's a man of his word and intends to add Ukraine to Belarus in the list of former SSRs he's establishing the Russian knout over once more to try to resurrect the fallen empire of 1914 in his image and in his likeness.

All bets are off now, and whatever happens is in the hands of the Ukrainian and Russian armies and in NATO's, in a broader sense.

dancesofthelight

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-says-russia-masses-more-troops-near-ukraine-invasion-could-come-any-time-2022-02-11/

The glorious Proletarian heartland beloved of the Western Left that is as completely willfully clueless of what Putin's pseudo-Tsarist dreams are as the global Right is evidently poised to go for a big war after all, if you believe US political and military leadership. This is a Godzilla-sized if based on multiple levels of recent events and leaves the question 'but why would you take anything Washington says on what Moscow's going to do completely at face value' for anyone who does.

100,000 troops is not enough to take Ukraine, let alone hold it. Ukraine can fight the shittiest lousiest war imaginable (and it'll probably do better than that but not by a great heaping margin) and it will still bloody the Russians unimaginably worse than anything since Yeltsin's idiocy in Grozny. Ukraine is a massive country, Russia doesn't have the logistical ability to launch a drive to Kyiv, let alone west of it.
( Now does Putin care about middling details like 'logistics'? Nah. )

It took the USSR most of a year and vast armies (to be fair the Wehrmacht of 1943-4 wasn't fighting with the brilliance of Alexander the Great and more with suicidal stubbornness no modern Ukrainian army would show but they're not facing the Red Army of that time either) to conquer all of Ukraine. And it took equally vast armies against even weaker opponents in the Civil War to squelch the umpty-gajillion armies in Civil War era Ukraine.

Ukraine can fight badly with ill-led and poorly motivated troops but it will still break Russia in the same way that Chechnya did as the task Putin wants his armies to do is beyond their power.

The problem is that Putin himself is what happened when Yeltsin went 'la dee da fuck logistics, glorious Russian army doesn't need gas or bullets in its fucking tanks and can put them in cities full of RPGs and rifles'. What happens with Russia if it gets a 1905-scale embarrassment with nuclear weapons? For that matter, what happens with NATO? Based on Libya the non-US factor in NATO is a social club for people with guns to drink on the weekend where they have guns and not broomsticks. If NATO's power gets further punctured, could Russia reasonably expect a Ukrainian war to crack it apart and thus salvage a kind of victory from the jaws of defeat?

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Summary

abomvubuso - The war no one wants to fight
nairiporter - Is the US getting directly involved? +4 comments
abomvubuso - Europe is quietly preparing for World War III +12 comments
abomvubuso - Friday offtopic. Ahh, that good ole Erap.
fridi - Spooked by Vlad +4 comments
mahnmut - Isn't this what everyone wanted anyway? +8 comments
abomvubuso - Friday offtopic. Ahh, that good ole Erap. +1 comment
mahnmut - How's that special operation going, Vladdy?
kiaa - Friday offtopic. Kindof. +1 comment
fridi - Putin's major miscalculation +2 comments
fridi - Terrorizing the civilians, Putin's new go-to tactic +20 comments
kiaa - Friday offtopic. Kindof.
tcpip - Minutes to Midnight +4 comments
oportet - (no subject) +6 comments
dancesofthelight - The barbarous hordes of Muscovy are reverting back to their roots: +12 comments
dancesofthelight - Putin's speedrunning Nicholas I and Ivan the Terrible continues at lightning speed
ernads - war in Ukraine +7 comments
asthfghl - What's with the Z sign? +5 comments
dancesofthelight - Well, I admit it, I was wrong: +25 comments
dancesofthelight - 'Could' and 'will' are two different things: +30 comments

Talk politics.

A place to discuss politics without egomaniacal mods.

Entries tagged with war

The war no one wants to fight

Is the US getting directly involved?

Europe is quietly preparing for World War III

Friday offtopic. Ahh, that good ole Erap.

Spooked by Vlad

Isn't this what everyone wanted anyway?

Friday offtopic. Ahh, that good ole Erap.

How's that special operation going, Vladdy?

Friday offtopic. Kindof.

Putin's major miscalculation

Terrorizing the civilians, Putin's new go-to tactic

Friday offtopic. Kindof.

Minutes to Midnight

(no subject)

The barbarous hordes of Muscovy are reverting back to their roots:

Putin's speedrunning Nicholas I and Ivan the Terrible continues at lightning speed

war in Ukraine

What's with the Z sign?

Well, I admit it, I was wrong:

'Could' and 'will' are two different things:

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Links

January 2026

Summary