talkpolitics | Entries tagged with civil war

What's been taking place within the Taliban network are internal fissures associated with ISIS. Think of it as a mutation of sorts taking place. Either the latest Afghan Taliban beast will be faced with eradicating the internal meshing of ISIS influence or mutating into a Taliban 2.0 variant in Afghanistan.

Taliban have a 2-front war headed their way

"The Islamic State’s attack likely had multiple objectives, including disrupting U.S. operations at the airport and embarrassing the Taliban as the Taliban tries to distance itself from terrorist groups and portray itself as being capable of providing security throughout the country," Charles Thorson, Stratfor global security analyst at RANE, told Fox News.

"The attack also probably serves longer-term objectives of driving recruitment and reinvigorating the Islamic State’s image within the global jihadist community amid the group’s downfall in Iraq and Syria, Thorson added. ISIS-K is estimated to have between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters operating in Afghanistan and its ranks swelled with more fighters after prisoners were released when the Afghan government collapsed."

It's likely where this is all heading. US/NATO presence kept that under control, but now with the power vacuum, the gloves will start coming off. I feel the most for the civilians who just want to go about their lives instead of being caught in the middle of all these power struggles that have gone on for decades.

kiaa

Haitian President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in an attack on his private residence, the country’s interim prime minister said in a statement Wednesday, calling it a “hateful, inhumane and barbaric act."
First Lady Martine Moïse was hospitalized following the overnight attack, interim Premier Claude Joseph said. The nation of more than 11 million people had grown increasingly unstable and disgruntled under Moïse.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/official-haiti-president-jovenel-moïse-assassinated-at-home/ar-AALS9TL?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

The country is already on the edge of falling apart, there are pockets of the nation pretty much in some phase of civil conflict with one another.

We are watching it all slowly collapse, and seeing an official killed in their home pretty much ends the debate on where Haiti is headed.

Haiti has been in rough shape for a long time. It's a shame really because their island-sharing sister does so much better.

Haiti through a series of actions has devolved into a violent nation with areas in more or less chaos without local government. Despite the US, the UN, and other nations lining behind Moise denouncing the attack (and we all should denounce such violence) there is a realization that his term did not improve things in the slightest.

We have no idea who is really in charge now.

In Haiti who is next in line is dead, their President of the Supreme Court should be in control but he died of Covid. I guess we could look to the acting prime minister, but that takes approval from their Parliament that is largely idle, worthless, and also in disarray.

The US Embassy there is in lockdown and there are travel restrictions to and from.

If I had to guess what is next, all out civil war. I am not talking about more pockets of fighting for control over this or that but outright humanitarian disaster causing long term bloody and messy civil war.

And it will be horrifically sad to see Haiti devolve into such a terrible ending.

nairiporter

The political slogan of Ethiopian president Abiy Ahmed is "Medemer", union. But his reforms, aimed at unifying ethnically diverse Ethiopia, have re-ignited the lingering ethnic and political divisions, and put the very integrity of Africa's second most populous country at risk. Ethiopia's unity is now facing its greatest challenge. The military conflict between the government and the Tigray separatists TPLF in the north has raged for a month.

The TPLF presents the conflict as a fight for the rights of the 10 autonomous regions of Ethiopia against an over-reaching president who is determined to centralise power in his own hands. They argue that Abiy Ahmed's policies discriminate against the people of Tigray, and his rule is an "illegal, unitarist, personal dictatorship". The central government, on the other hand, is denying any attempts to centralise control of the country.

( Read more... )

nairiporter

Watch on YouTube

Missiles have hit the area of two city airports in the Amhara region, next to the runaway Ethiopian state of Tigray, where the central government forces are fighting regional separatists.

The Ethiopian government has declared the Tigray People's Liberation Front a rebel insurgency, while TPLF insists the central government does not represent the Tigray people. In September, the Front organised its own regional elections in the Tigray state, ignoring the central government.

( This looks from bad to worse )

arhalvaztrirjournal

The latest news from the ongoing crisis in Venezuela involves something that actually does directly implicate potential US involvement in a war there. Specifically the image of John Bolton posing with a tablet saying "5,000 troops in Colombia." ( cut for length, links, and a map )

Imperial savage wars of peace are only justified if the empire pulls them off with a win. An American-Venezuelan War will be a catastrophe, and it will also undermine the Guaido movement the USA is trying to help ala Ralph Wiggums thinking it's doing effective things again when it really, really isn't.

And leaving aside these military arguments against it, it renders hollow much of the outrage over Russian cyberwarfare meddling in US elections to meddle in Venezuela's with actual boots on the ground, while illustrating that the US Empire continues to think everything can be solved by bombs and boots. An assertion the more miraculous for the utter lack of any proof whatsoever to sustain it.

mahnmut

When less than a month ago Putin and his Iraqi counterpart Abbadi officially announced Mission Accomplished in their fight against ISIS, they hardly had illusions that the war was really completely won. Abbadi did tell his people that they were freed of the threat and confirmed that "the dream for freedom is now a reality", but then he went on to insure himself against being proven wrong, saying that ISIS' dream was over and now was the time to roll up the sleeves and work hard to erase all the effects of its existence, and never let terrorism come back again. But instead of declaring a complete and final victory, he urged vigilance and preparedness against the various terrorist attacks for his country, "because terrorism is an eternal enemy".

Putin was also active on the issue. He said the Russia-Assad alliance had managed to defeat the toughest terror group in just a couple of years. This instantly provoked a reaction and a counter-declaration by the White House, which said that the Russian triumphant trumpets were premature, citing previous occasions of similar declarations of victory that had been followed by failure to consolidate the military achievements and stabilize the situation, creating conditions that would prevent the return of terrorist groups (Iraq and Afghanistan instantly spring to mind).

The latter does have a point. Most experts on the Middle East believe that after losing the territories it used to control (both in Mossul and Raqqa), ISIS will now return to its roots of a terrorist group, and will wage a guerrilla insurrection of the asymmetric type. They've already done that before, after all.

( Read more... )

fridi

All right, we got that everyone hastily equating the neo-Nazis to the "other side" of the "many sides" is a closet racist, fascist, Nazist, and other nasty sorts of -ist. Now that we've got that out of the way, could I please inquire about something?

Why the sudden surge of Confederate-related monuments planned for demolition? Why now? I mean, hundreds of memorials, memorial plates and signs, etc, have now been planned for removal. All of them related to the so called "Southern heritage" in some way. Even in places that were never on Confederate territory. We've got the Historical Revisionism topic this month here, right? I think this is part of the topic as well. The Civil War has been gone for a century and a half, and more. These memorials have been there for decades. Why this "spontaneous" attempt for a new reading of US history? Seems a bit strange to me, the timing I mean. Could it have something to do with Trump being president? Could it be an attempt to stick it to the Douche-in-Chief in some way? Could it have something to do with the orchestrated "Fake News" cannonade against him? (Would be sooo SAD if it were so!)

( More dumb questions... )

tcpip.livejournal.com

Like any form of war, it is rare that revolutions unfold according to some preordained plan. This is because of course, there is usually several plans in operation, which just so happen to have a common interest. After the common interest is achieved, they will often turn on each other. This is particularly important for those who wish to establish a democracy after a dictatorship; unless the revolutionary constitution and new military provide a commitment to liberal and secular rights, the majority - without a familiarity with these concepts - may very well turn to theocracy, following the long-repressed religious leadership. Likewise a broad-based revolution really needs to be careful of its political preferences; being united with political opponents to overthrow a dictatorship is unhelpful if those opponents are worse that the dictator in question.

It is thus the outcomes of the civil war that becomes the deciding factor of what political system will rule a region after a revolution that has multiple participants, and this raises a matter of critical importance for social activists outside of the region of military struggle. The contemporary case of Libya is an illustrative example, starting from a review of the Gaddafi dictatorship, then the Libyan revolution, the current Libyan Civil War, and the relevance for similar countries.

( Read more... )

Just posted elsewhere as well.

nairiporter.livejournal.com

What is that thing that looks like ISIL, quacks like ISIL, but is not ISIL? Well, you may have already guessed it, that is Boko Haram. They have proclaimed their own Caliphate too, but in the north-eastern parts of Nigeria. They also shock with their cruelty, which is escalating every next year. Although Nigeria is Africa's biggest economy and one of the world's top oil producers, the weak corrupted government has been unable to stop the terrorist group. And, unless the broken political system is changed, the Nigerian jihadists will keep being on the rise, gradually turning their bloody campaign into a regional conflict.

Ever since Boko Haram launched their offensive in 2009, more than 16 thousand people have been killed, and a million have been driven off their homes. The group uses a myriad of tactics, from bombings to kidnapping to arson, affecting both Christian and Muslim communities. We all know of the case where 276 schoolgrirls were kidnapped from Shibok. Some managed to escape, others died, and others still were sold into slavery, or forcefully married to jihadist husbands. Turns out, that is not the worst of what these extremists are capable of.

( Read more... )

cypukambl.livejournal.com

A fierce battle is now taking place in the East of Ukraine around town of Debaltsevo. Russian terrorist troops are using excessive force to push Ukrainian Army and Territorial Battalions to the West or to encircle them and then starve to surrender. This alarming situation prompted Ukrainian Parliament - The Verkhovna Rada - to pass a new law. The law #1762 of the 5-th of February provides more authority to all commanders during the Special Period (officially there`s no war going on). http://www.unian.net/politics/1040659-rada-usilila-otvetstvennost-voennyih-za-pyanstvo-i-uklonenie-ot-ispolneniya-prikazov.html Article 22, part 5 allows commanders personally punish phisically, using weapons, or command their subordinates to use weapons, if there`s no other way to stop unlawful actions of subordinates. No time to be delicate. No time to investigate and abjudicate. Russia must be stopped!

There`s another sign that the whole Ukrainian society understands a desperate need of supporting the Army of the righteous: http://24tv.ua/news/showNews.do?filaret_prosit_ssha_predostavit_ukraine_oruzhie&objectId=539307&lang=ru His Holiness the Patriarch of Kyiv and All Rus’-Ukraine Filaret, the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Kyivan Patriarchate on the 3-rd of February during the press conference in the US Embassy has asked the United States to fulfill obligations of guarantor, that is to help Ukraine to defend its territory, including provision of defence weapons. A Christian, a God`s man, is asking for weapons! That alone shows the strain and the stress, under which Ukraine now struggles.

And what reaction do we see from Europe? Here it is: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150205/1017814007.html That is a complete ZRADA! - "betrayal" in Ukrainian. No wonder, Ukrainian readers reacted very emotionally:

( Read more... )

I am sure that when Hollande finds out what Ukrainian people really think of him, he will change his mind and will gladly vote in NATO to accept Ukraine. His present political short-sightedness alienates him from future winners and that is not what Europe needs.

nairiporter.livejournal.com

While we are about failed states, or rather, failing states as in this case...

There has seldom been a more well-pronounced contrast. While the world was focused on the mass killing and the hostage crisis in France, another tragedy, again religiously motivated, but much larger in terms of both scale and scope, was unfolding in Nigeria - and went largely unnoticed. Even by the Nigerian head of state himself.

The news of massacres in the town of Baga, which is located almost at the shores of lake Chad, perpetrated by Boko Haram, happened shortly after the drama in Paris, but failed to draw even a quarter of the attention across the world media, let alone reactions like million marches on the streets. It certainly did not make the headlines, and still isn't.

( Read more... )

abomvubuso.livejournal.com

When the newly elected parliament puts its tail between its legs and runs from all the violence in the capital city in order to have their first meeting in another town, that must mean something has gone terribly wrong with democracy in the country.

I'm of course talking about Libya. That's exactly what happened the other day. There've been 200+ dead people on the streets of Tripoli and Benghazi for the last couple of weeks alone. The rebels who toppled Gaddafi 3 years ago with the help of NATO's military intervention, are now fighting among each other for power and influence, and threatening to drag the country into another civil war. Anything resembling national military or police that could disarm them and put and end to the violence, is non-existent.

And while the fighting for control over airports, ports and oil terminals continues, the economy will be suffering one blow after another. In the meantime, the calls for intervention from the international community remain ignored at the background of the events in Ukraine, Iraq and Palestine. But the fact is, if the time bomb that is Libya is left to tick, the explosion would resonate way beyond its borders.

( Read more... )

nairiporter.livejournal.com

The crisis in Iraq caused by the Islamic State is now effectively drawing Iran and the US together, two sworn enemies. And this is a chance for them to work together and bring their relations into a more constructive territory. Otherwise Iraq will fall apart.

Right now, Iraq is standing in front of two crises. The political crisis around the scramble for the prime minister's chair, plus the existential crisis coming from the advance of the Islamic State (former ISIS, former ISIL). The two crises are interconnected, and both the US and Iran have their share of responsibility for having caused them. America is responsible, because the US invasion and the political chaos that followed, has undermined all political structures in Iraq. The result was a severe deterioration of security and stability. At this point, almost no one contests the fact that the war in Iraq was a dire mistake (not to mention that it was based on a lie).

( Read more... )

luvdovz.livejournal.com

Sorry to spoil the nice Friday mood, but...

[Error: unknown template video]

Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crash: Was the cure for Aids lost along with Joep Lange and 100 top researchers?

"There are fears the cure for Aids could have been lost with 100 of the “best and brightest” scientists and researchers on board Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. Joep Lange, a world-renowned researcher and former president of the International Aids Society, was with the group heading to the global Aids 2014 conference in Melbourne, Australia. The exact number of scientists he was travelling with has not been confirmed but delegates in Sydney were told that emails indicted around 100 attendees were on the ill-fated plane."

Just hours after the tragic airplane crash of the Malaysian airplane over Ukraine which took 298 lives, among them three infants and the above-mentioned top 100 world AIDS experts, the Western and the Russian media got very busy tossing the ball into each other's court and asking the question how has it come to this. And while Ukraine, Russia and the Russian separatists in East Ukraine are exchanging accusations for the downed commercial airplane, their respective mouthpieces are also shooting with all barrels.

( Read more... )

mahnmut.livejournal.com

"Those who confront death". That's what the name Peshmerga means, the official designation of the armed forces of Iraqi Kurdistan. They'll soon have the chance to prove themselves at the battlefield once more. Earlier this month president Barzani requested from the local parliament to set a day for independence referendum. Of coruse, the central authorities in Baghdad are warning they'll use all means available to prevent that from happening.

The perfect storm that Iraq has immersed itself into, is far from over. The central government still has no adequate response to the ISIS advances which have taken over nearly 1/3 of the country's territory and announced the establishment of a Caliphate.

Naturally, the Kurds are not sitting on their hands, either. While ISIS is bracing itself for another assault on Baghdad, Peshmerga has taken the strategic city of Kirkuk and practically increased the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan by 40%. This way they outlined the desired boundaries of their future state, taking most Kurd-dominated territories. The dream for independence now looks closer than ever. But it'll need the approval of their neighbors.

( Read more... )

mahnmut.livejournal.com

The advance of Saudi-funded ISIS in Iraq is increasing the sense of an impending chaos in the Middle East. Yep, you heard me. Saudi Arabia is triggering the destabilization in Iraq behind USA's back, and ironically, Iran is offering its help to stop that. Curious, huh? Meanwhile in Libya, the government has become hostage to uncontrollable paramilitary formations; Syria in the best case will fall apart, and in the worst will continue to be the battlefield of a brutal civil war for years to come; Yemen is at the top of the list of failed states; etc, etc.

Other countries may follow: tiny Lebanon has accepted about a million Syrian refugees, which, similarly to Jordan, is a serious threat to social peace there. Lebanon is also unwillingly involved in the Syrian civil war, because Hezbollah is fighting partly on Syrian, partly on Lebanese territory. Various terrorists in Algeria and other countries in the Maghreb are getting weapons from Libya, including those in Egypt, whose government believes it could hold its polarized society together through repression. And things were looking so bright and promising a few years ago with the advance of the Arab Spring!

( You thought all this shitstorm will stay far away, did ya? )

ivankon.livejournal.com

Video from Mariupol (Eastern Ukraine)
WARNING: Very Bloody! Remove children away before view!

Screams: "Fascists! Get out of here! Heroes! (with contempt)"

Situation. Soldiers from Western Ukraine went to Eastern Ukraine town with "anti-terrorist operation", "to free people". You can see how "joyful" people meets them. Soldiers killed drunken man lifted his arm with camp-chair towards them, wounded 2 or 3 unarmed people and possible cause heart attack of old-timer. Oh, such terrorists... or secret agents of Putin, year. After next wounded man has fallen crowd shouts and other man (see 2:11) shooting from behind of crowd towards recessive soldiers. This single person who may be in theory terrorist or at least delinquent was just ignored by both soldiers and crowd (because pneumatic gun?).

So... you should not trust to me, just see (do not forget remove children and may be wives too!)

Those soldiers as says were hired by oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi from the extreme nationalistic part of activists of Maidan (therefore crowd screaming "Fascists"). I.e. this is not regular army but marginals recently hired to army. Usual regular army very reluctantly participates in such operations. Oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi was set appointed to governor seat without any elections after coup d'etat in Kiev. He has reputation of corrupt businessman therefore he is not popular among natives.

Eastern Ukrainians has significantly different history from Western and many years live in one country with distrust to each other. On several last elections of Presidents were either pro-Eastern or pro-Western and other side stayed dissatisfied and felt cheated.

luzribeiro.livejournal.com

Anyone surprised that there isn't much news of this, and the little that's reported at all, mostly fails to mention the people surrounded and burned alive were pro-Russians? -->

The other day, dozens of pro-Russian protesters retreated to a Trade Union building from a mob of armed right-wing extremists, and as the latter surrounded the building they set it on fire. Some of the people inside tried to jump out but got beaten up - some, to death. 30+ people died inside from smoke inhalation, or severe burnings.

This is a rather significant incident, wouldn't you say? But I guess since it makes Kiev look bad, the Western media has preferred to ignore it, or rather mention it with half a mouth. I know the following outlet is pro-Putin (RT) so the commentary should be taken with a huge grain of salt due to the expected spin, but still the footage does speak for itself:

( Warning: disturbing footage behind cut )

underlankers.livejournal.com

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035

Fucking brilliant approach, this. First the attempt to play divide and conquer in Ukraine pretty transparently crashed and burned with the retun of Ukraine's Benazir Bhutto to political influence. Then, the Russians decide evidently that they really did move in Russian Army soldiers into the Crimea. Because the proper instinct when a risky gamble fails is to raise the stakes. This is not going to end well by any means. Now I'm wondering how long Lucashenko will have a country to rule as dictator, and what might happen with Round II with Georgia. If Tsar Vladimir I of the House of Putin succeeds in this kind of thing, that will only encourage him to expand his wars of aggression further because Ukraine is rather larger than Georgia, and this would permit Russia to begin aspiring to regain aspects of the old Tsarist boundaries. I sincerely expected Russia would use Central Asia for this kind of thing, not Ukraine.

The EU wouldn't give a damn about invading Muslims in Kazakhstan, but invading an EU state? That's not going to lead Russia to do anything but decide to engage in still-larger wars of aggression in the long term.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-politics/

And one of the chambers of the Russian legislature just approved this request. Hoo, boy.

Shit got real-er:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26403996

The Ukrainian Army is now on full combat alert. The prospect that the centennial year of the First World War will see the first large-scale conventional European war in decades has risen exponentially.

underlankers.livejournal.com

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140228

Russia has indeed opened the first can of worms in the current kerfluffle in Ukraine. Specifically, there are now uprisings in the Crimea that want to restore this particular piece of real estate to Russia. If that happens, Russian power will return in one sense to a specific part of the world on some rather traditional lines. Regardless, now that this is out in the open, it leaves a situation for a lot more ugliness to fester and expand as time goes on. No state worthy of the name voluntarily self-terminates, so this may on the one hand unify Ukrainians in a sense of 'No Russians carving up our country, dammit!' but in no other fashion. On the other hand it could lead to a Crimean Lucashenko who decides that Russian friendship outweighs any local traditions or ties to what theoretically is (in this case part of one) a sovereign country.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26381454

Russians, additionally, have passed laws to smooth the process' legal guidelines, as no act of aggression as a matter of course is simply marching an army into a place and saying 'fuck you, we got tanks and you got rocks. Don't like it,we use canister over open sights.' There inevitably tends to be some kind of legalistic pretext that convinces only those who want to be convinced and serves interests on the side of the land-grabber more than it does anything else.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26394846

The President of the United States has said that there would be 'consequences' if Russia should do something uncharacteristically stupid like simply marching a mass army into a region the size of France. Russia generally carves up the turkey by degrees over a protracted period of time. Germans and Frenchmen and Italians tend to be the type of geniuses who invade huge countries just because they can and learn unpleasant lessons in the process. Russia, I don't believe, will use its more brutal or large-scale methods here. I see it relying mostly on the much simpler (in theory, often much more difficult and chaotic in practice and equally prone to backfire when done by actual human beings in a situation without hindsight) approach of divide and conquer and appealing to factions within their would-be conquest.

EDIT: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/russia-crimea-white-house

If the Ukrainians are right on this (and it seems a bit uncharacteristic on Putin's part. Ukraine is not Georgia, and a real war on this scale would seem entirely out of proportion to his prior patterns of aggression), shit just got real. Very real. As in Morpheus got the bad actor to take the red pill real.

On another matter entirely, in a predictable lesson in human nature, the chaos in Venezuela means non-Venezuelans are now aware that the opposition is a mixture of movements with different interests and the movement's leaders have insufficient control over said movement. Invariably historical insight reveals this to be true about all movements, in this case the Information Age is now letting it be known that Venezuelans, in a big country, do not all dislike the government for the same reasons or have compatible views of Venezuela's future. That's how human nature works.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/27/us-venezuela-opposition-capriles-idUSBREA1Q1MA20140227

Credits & Style Info

Talk Politics.

A place to discuss politics without egomaniacal mods

MONTHLY TOPIC:
The Scramble for Resources

DAILY QUOTE:

"Someone's selling Greenland now?" (asthfghl)

"Yes get your bids in quick!" (oportet)

"Let me get my Bid Coins and I'll be there in a minute." (asthfghl)

May 2025

M	T	W	T	F	S	S
			1	2	3	4
5	6	7	8	9	10	11
12	13	14	15	16	17	18
19	20	21	22	23	24	25
26	27	28	29	30	31

Talk politics.

A place to discuss politics without egomaniacal mods.

Entries tagged with civil war

Oh well... sucks to be the Taliban, I guess

The failed state next door

The boomerang of reconciliation

A new war in Africa

Definitely likely to be a civil war now:

Do not write off ISIS just yet

Let me play dumb here a little bit, and ask a really stupid question...

After The Revolution : The Libyan Civil War

Medieval in Africa: from bad to worse

Ukraine`s last stand doesn`t move Europe a bit.

A hit on democracy in Nigeria as well

Bloody sands

Iran and the US should cooperate in Iraq

Developing story: Who Pushed the Button?

Behold the newest state in the Middle East

What's the West missing in the whole Middle East picture?

Ukraine - civil war

The Odessa fire

Now the Long Knives are poised right in the back of Ukraine:

Now the Long Knives come out:

Credits & Style Info

Links

May 2025

Summary