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talkpoliticsTurkey will be supporting the Libyan government of Fayez as-Sarraj in his war with Gan. Khalifa Haftar. The latter's so called Libyan National Army is trying to conquer Tripoli, and controls vast regions in Eastern Libya.
As we all know, Turkey is an emerging regional power in the Middle East that is currently in economic crisis. Some might ask themselves, what's Turkey doing in Africa, especially after it already got involved in neibhboring Syria. Isn't a second military adventure, now far from home, a bit risky? Well, if you ask Erdogan, he'll tell you he's aiming to defend the lawfully elected Libyan government from those pesky warlords. He's also saying he's acting on Sarraj's invitation, who indeed did sign a military cooperation agreement with his neo-Ottoman counterpart last November. But it's clear that there's more to this story, and the game is much bigger for Erdogan.
So what's Recep's game there? Well, let me start by saying his ratings back home are dwindling. The financial and economic crisis are causing his people to lose confidence in him. He suffered some major setbacks at the local elections last year, and the tide has evidently started turning against him.
To counter these tendencies, he's resorting to - you guessed right - inflaming nationalistic sentiments, presenting his country as an influential player in an important region, and scoring points among the conservative and religious base. He's using megalomaniac rhetoric, reminding his people that the great Ataturk also battled in Libya during the fall of the Ottoman empire. He has invaded Syria, causing nostalgic sentiments about the good days of old when the Ottomans used to rule that territory.
There are speculations that Erdogan will try to move the presidential election way earlier than planned, and have it this year and not in 2023 when it's supposed to happen. So he's now urgently trying to tighten up the ranks of his base, and make a final push.
We've talked about the oil and gas in the Eastern Mediterranean as well, and quite extensively. Erdogan's interests there are economic. He's trying to ensure the region for Turkey, and the deal with Libya is also part of this plan. Expanding Turkey's naval borders is part of that. He's aiming to get access to the gas-rich shelf off the Cyprus shores.
That gas field was discovered about a decade ago, and has turned into an apple of discord ever since. Cyprus has remained divided into a Greek and Turkish part, both sides claiming sovereignty over the gas. The Republic of Cyprus (the Greek part) is citing international naval law that guarantees every country access to a certain exclusive economic zone spreading 200 miles into open sea. All natural resources within that zone can be exploited by said country. In the case with Cyprus, things are a bit more complicated, since Turkey views the so called North Cyprus Turkish Republic as a sovereign nation with its own exclusive economic zone.
Problem is, that entity is not recognized by anybody else, hence the fact that all neighboring countries in the region believe Turkey has no rights on the gas. The day when Erdogan launched the military operation in Libya, Israel signed an agreement with Cyprus and Greece to build a Trans-Mediterranean pipeline (EastMed), 1,900 km long, and meant to deliver gas from the Cyrpiot shelf to Israel and Greece, and into Europe (Italy, mostly). Turkey was never invited at the table. Erdogan has said many times that he doesn't want Turkey to be sidelined from such projects (he has just launched another joint pipeline with Russia, delivering Russian gas across the Black Sea, and into Europe). So you can include that motivation into the list of reasons why he's siding with the Libyan government: he wants to break the blockade that's strangling Turkey.
He's got a powerful friend in Putin, indeed. Last October the two agreed to regulate their actions in Syria, and Erdogan agreed to step back from there. Putin is a key player both in Syria and North Africa.
The problem is, it so happens that Putin is supporting the other side in the Libyan civil war, Gen. Haftar's insurgency. Putin did invite Erdogan to meet in Moscow and sort that situation out. The effort has failed spectacularly, though, Haftar leaving the meeting and vowing to continue the fight against Tripoli, while Erdogan is promising to keep his support for the Libyan government, and urging Russia to do their part and step back - which of course they won't do. So... stay tuned and watch this closely, as the Libyan conflict is about to spiral out of control, involving an ever increasing number of parties.
As we all know, Turkey is an emerging regional power in the Middle East that is currently in economic crisis. Some might ask themselves, what's Turkey doing in Africa, especially after it already got involved in neibhboring Syria. Isn't a second military adventure, now far from home, a bit risky? Well, if you ask Erdogan, he'll tell you he's aiming to defend the lawfully elected Libyan government from those pesky warlords. He's also saying he's acting on Sarraj's invitation, who indeed did sign a military cooperation agreement with his neo-Ottoman counterpart last November. But it's clear that there's more to this story, and the game is much bigger for Erdogan.
So what's Recep's game there? Well, let me start by saying his ratings back home are dwindling. The financial and economic crisis are causing his people to lose confidence in him. He suffered some major setbacks at the local elections last year, and the tide has evidently started turning against him.
To counter these tendencies, he's resorting to - you guessed right - inflaming nationalistic sentiments, presenting his country as an influential player in an important region, and scoring points among the conservative and religious base. He's using megalomaniac rhetoric, reminding his people that the great Ataturk also battled in Libya during the fall of the Ottoman empire. He has invaded Syria, causing nostalgic sentiments about the good days of old when the Ottomans used to rule that territory.
There are speculations that Erdogan will try to move the presidential election way earlier than planned, and have it this year and not in 2023 when it's supposed to happen. So he's now urgently trying to tighten up the ranks of his base, and make a final push.
We've talked about the oil and gas in the Eastern Mediterranean as well, and quite extensively. Erdogan's interests there are economic. He's trying to ensure the region for Turkey, and the deal with Libya is also part of this plan. Expanding Turkey's naval borders is part of that. He's aiming to get access to the gas-rich shelf off the Cyprus shores.
That gas field was discovered about a decade ago, and has turned into an apple of discord ever since. Cyprus has remained divided into a Greek and Turkish part, both sides claiming sovereignty over the gas. The Republic of Cyprus (the Greek part) is citing international naval law that guarantees every country access to a certain exclusive economic zone spreading 200 miles into open sea. All natural resources within that zone can be exploited by said country. In the case with Cyprus, things are a bit more complicated, since Turkey views the so called North Cyprus Turkish Republic as a sovereign nation with its own exclusive economic zone.
Problem is, that entity is not recognized by anybody else, hence the fact that all neighboring countries in the region believe Turkey has no rights on the gas. The day when Erdogan launched the military operation in Libya, Israel signed an agreement with Cyprus and Greece to build a Trans-Mediterranean pipeline (EastMed), 1,900 km long, and meant to deliver gas from the Cyrpiot shelf to Israel and Greece, and into Europe (Italy, mostly). Turkey was never invited at the table. Erdogan has said many times that he doesn't want Turkey to be sidelined from such projects (he has just launched another joint pipeline with Russia, delivering Russian gas across the Black Sea, and into Europe). So you can include that motivation into the list of reasons why he's siding with the Libyan government: he wants to break the blockade that's strangling Turkey.
He's got a powerful friend in Putin, indeed. Last October the two agreed to regulate their actions in Syria, and Erdogan agreed to step back from there. Putin is a key player both in Syria and North Africa.
The problem is, it so happens that Putin is supporting the other side in the Libyan civil war, Gen. Haftar's insurgency. Putin did invite Erdogan to meet in Moscow and sort that situation out. The effort has failed spectacularly, though, Haftar leaving the meeting and vowing to continue the fight against Tripoli, while Erdogan is promising to keep his support for the Libyan government, and urging Russia to do their part and step back - which of course they won't do. So... stay tuned and watch this closely, as the Libyan conflict is about to spiral out of control, involving an ever increasing number of parties.
