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talkpolitics"Those who confront death". That's what the name Peshmerga means, the official designation of the armed forces of Iraqi Kurdistan. They'll soon have the chance to prove themselves at the battlefield once more. Earlier this month president Barzani requested from the local parliament to set a day for independence referendum. Of coruse, the central authorities in Baghdad are warning they'll use all means available to prevent that from happening.
The perfect storm that Iraq has immersed itself into, is far from over. The central government still has no adequate response to the ISIS advances which have taken over nearly 1/3 of the country's territory and announced the establishment of a Caliphate.
Naturally, the Kurds are not sitting on their hands, either. While ISIS is bracing itself for another assault on Baghdad, Peshmerga has taken the strategic city of Kirkuk and practically increased the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan by 40%. This way they outlined the desired boundaries of their future state, taking most Kurd-dominated territories. The dream for independence now looks closer than ever. But it'll need the approval of their neighbors.
The Kurds are a people that's evenly spread across territories spanning parts of Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. They've always been subject to repression by the local majorities. After WW1, when the modern map of the Middle East was shaped, the Great Powers promised the Kurds to grant them independence referendum, but it never happened. The spreading of totalitarian military regimes with a nationalist flavor after WW2 put additional pressure on them, which led to the ascent of the PKK in Turkey and other similar structures in Iran and Syria. One of the most tragic recent examples of a systematic anti-Kurdish campaign was the so called Al-Anfal operation in Iraq in the 80s, when Saddam aimed to completely eradicate the Kurdish ethnos. He failed.
So it's no surprise that Iraqi War v.1.0 started by imposing a no-fly zone over the Kurdish areas in North iraq, where the anti-Saddam movement was the strongest. Since 1991 the Kurds have practically escaped direct control from Baghdad, but the problem is they're still financially dependent on the central power. Still, for the last 20 years the foundations of a new state have been laid down.
The Kurds in Iraq are not just some rogue mountain guerrillas. They're more like administrators. They have their own institutions and local structures, and they do their best to maintain order. They practically rule a de facto state. This is evident even from a first sight. For example, EU citizens can enter Iraqi Kurdistan without visa, but in order to proceed further into Iraq they'd need a document issued by Baghdad. Various ministries, law enforcement organizations, health-care institutions are being maintained to a relatively adequate level, etc.
These institutions were fortified after 2005 when the Kurds were granted partial autonomy by the new Iraqi Constitution. Bit they have no right to export oil, and they rely on funding from the federal government to sustain their institutions. That's of course a convenient lever for exerting influence. Earlier this year Al-Maliki's government decided to stop sending money, which caused between 10-12 billion dollars of losses to the Kurdish budget. We should add the unpaid salaries to the Peshmerga fighters to this amount, and those are supposed to be part of the official Iraqi defense forces.
The search for alternative sources of income explains why the Kurds are so eager to control Kirkuk, where a mixed population of Arabs, Kurds and other smaller ethnic groups lives together. There are large oil fields located nearby, exporting oil to Turkey. But the ISIS assault is cutting the main pipeline away, so there's only one place where the oil could pass: namely, Iraqi Kurdistan. The export of oil from the Kurdish oil fields, especially those around Kirkuk, could fill the gaps in the budget, and make Iraqi Kurdistan financially independent.
The territorial expansion and the appropriation of the new oil deposits are not the only things that the Kurds have achieved, ironically thanks to the ISIS campaign. The situation is too chaotic right now, granted. Now the 1000+ km border is teaming with terrorists, radical groups and other known and unknown elements - which is nothing new really, when you think about it. The thing is, Iraq will hardly revert to relative stability any time soon. And as we all know, business is best done in muddy waters, as entities like Exxon would have you know:
Still, the Iraqis are trying to demonstrate otherwise. On June 1 the first session of the new Iraqi parliament convened, where the MPs were supposed to show national unity. Instead, the Sunni and Kurdish MPs abandoned the session under the boos and verbal abuse of their counterparts from Maliki's party, most of them dressed in military uniforms. Maliki himself tried to tone it all down by appearing on TV with a statement, promising that his military would regain Kirkuk, where the Kurds are sitting now. "Our Constitution mentions nothing of self-determination", he said. "No one has the right to take benefit of the events, as Iraqi Kurdistan is doing", he ranted.
The signals coming from other regional players are also confusing. In a FT interview, the speaker of Erdogan's party in Turkey, Hussein Celik hinted that his country would probably tolerate the establishment of an independent Kurdish state. "If Iraq is divided and it is inevitable, [the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)] are our brothers. … Unfortunately, the situation in Iraq is not good and it looks like it is going to be divided", he said. But very soon his words were rebutted by other officials from the Turkish government, who promised they support Iraq's territorial integrity. The same position radiates from the White House, but the Kurds at least found an unexpected mediator there.
The Israeli president Peres used his latest visit to DC in his capacity of head of state to inform the Americans that there was no use in trying to hold Iraq together. Then Netanyahu openly called for an independent Iraqi Kurdistan. Meanwhile, the Israeli port of Ashkelon welcomed the first 400 thousand barrels of oil, imported from the Kurds, without consulting with Baghdad. This turns Israel into the first major buyer of "independent" Kurdish oil.
But Israel's interests are not just economic. A possible Kurdish state would be a buffer against Iran, i.e. Israel would have a potential ally at the border of their deadliest enemy. Besides, the Kurds are a lever for pressure on the US, whose policies from an Israeli standpoint have lately seemed to be helping Iran rather than deterring it.
Despite the overt discontent with the internal and extermal players around them, the Kurds seem determined to walk the whole path to independence, no matter what. The presence of a formidable terrorist organization at their borders is not such a big concern for them - the radical Islamists are led by religious motivations, and they are aiming to topple the Shia regime in Baghdad, then proceed to Tehran, Jerusalem, etc. This is evident from their official statements, where the Kurds are almost never mentioned, but instead the topic is always the conquest of Shia holy places like Karbala.
It's hard to imagine a scenario which would stop the Kurds from splitting from Iraq at this point. The dilemma rather is when this should happen and how the good relations with the US and Turkey should be preserved.
Meanwhile Turkey, which is very thirsty for Iraqi oil, is currently only buying from the Kurds. This means that whether they like it or not, the Turks will have to respect the Kurdish interests. The Kurds themselves seem to have chosen a cautious approach, without too much haste and without sharp moves. It was notable that Barzani told his parliament, "Those who do not support us, are not necessarily our adversaries". It's also notable that many of the MPs who voted for setting the independence referendum were dressed in the traditional Kurdish garments, as if to acknowledge the historic significance of the moment.
So, not once since the end of the Ottoman empire has Kurdistan been as close to independence as it is now. But even if this doesn't happen immediately, Iraq will never be the same again. And the Kurds will be biding their time for the best moment to try again. And they will succeed eventually. So prepare to add yet one more geopolitical player to your future calculations.
The perfect storm that Iraq has immersed itself into, is far from over. The central government still has no adequate response to the ISIS advances which have taken over nearly 1/3 of the country's territory and announced the establishment of a Caliphate.
Naturally, the Kurds are not sitting on their hands, either. While ISIS is bracing itself for another assault on Baghdad, Peshmerga has taken the strategic city of Kirkuk and practically increased the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan by 40%. This way they outlined the desired boundaries of their future state, taking most Kurd-dominated territories. The dream for independence now looks closer than ever. But it'll need the approval of their neighbors.
The Kurds are a people that's evenly spread across territories spanning parts of Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. They've always been subject to repression by the local majorities. After WW1, when the modern map of the Middle East was shaped, the Great Powers promised the Kurds to grant them independence referendum, but it never happened. The spreading of totalitarian military regimes with a nationalist flavor after WW2 put additional pressure on them, which led to the ascent of the PKK in Turkey and other similar structures in Iran and Syria. One of the most tragic recent examples of a systematic anti-Kurdish campaign was the so called Al-Anfal operation in Iraq in the 80s, when Saddam aimed to completely eradicate the Kurdish ethnos. He failed.
So it's no surprise that Iraqi War v.1.0 started by imposing a no-fly zone over the Kurdish areas in North iraq, where the anti-Saddam movement was the strongest. Since 1991 the Kurds have practically escaped direct control from Baghdad, but the problem is they're still financially dependent on the central power. Still, for the last 20 years the foundations of a new state have been laid down.
The Kurds in Iraq are not just some rogue mountain guerrillas. They're more like administrators. They have their own institutions and local structures, and they do their best to maintain order. They practically rule a de facto state. This is evident even from a first sight. For example, EU citizens can enter Iraqi Kurdistan without visa, but in order to proceed further into Iraq they'd need a document issued by Baghdad. Various ministries, law enforcement organizations, health-care institutions are being maintained to a relatively adequate level, etc.
These institutions were fortified after 2005 when the Kurds were granted partial autonomy by the new Iraqi Constitution. Bit they have no right to export oil, and they rely on funding from the federal government to sustain their institutions. That's of course a convenient lever for exerting influence. Earlier this year Al-Maliki's government decided to stop sending money, which caused between 10-12 billion dollars of losses to the Kurdish budget. We should add the unpaid salaries to the Peshmerga fighters to this amount, and those are supposed to be part of the official Iraqi defense forces.
The search for alternative sources of income explains why the Kurds are so eager to control Kirkuk, where a mixed population of Arabs, Kurds and other smaller ethnic groups lives together. There are large oil fields located nearby, exporting oil to Turkey. But the ISIS assault is cutting the main pipeline away, so there's only one place where the oil could pass: namely, Iraqi Kurdistan. The export of oil from the Kurdish oil fields, especially those around Kirkuk, could fill the gaps in the budget, and make Iraqi Kurdistan financially independent.
The territorial expansion and the appropriation of the new oil deposits are not the only things that the Kurds have achieved, ironically thanks to the ISIS campaign. The situation is too chaotic right now, granted. Now the 1000+ km border is teaming with terrorists, radical groups and other known and unknown elements - which is nothing new really, when you think about it. The thing is, Iraq will hardly revert to relative stability any time soon. And as we all know, business is best done in muddy waters, as entities like Exxon would have you know:
Still, the Iraqis are trying to demonstrate otherwise. On June 1 the first session of the new Iraqi parliament convened, where the MPs were supposed to show national unity. Instead, the Sunni and Kurdish MPs abandoned the session under the boos and verbal abuse of their counterparts from Maliki's party, most of them dressed in military uniforms. Maliki himself tried to tone it all down by appearing on TV with a statement, promising that his military would regain Kirkuk, where the Kurds are sitting now. "Our Constitution mentions nothing of self-determination", he said. "No one has the right to take benefit of the events, as Iraqi Kurdistan is doing", he ranted.
The signals coming from other regional players are also confusing. In a FT interview, the speaker of Erdogan's party in Turkey, Hussein Celik hinted that his country would probably tolerate the establishment of an independent Kurdish state. "If Iraq is divided and it is inevitable, [the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)] are our brothers. … Unfortunately, the situation in Iraq is not good and it looks like it is going to be divided", he said. But very soon his words were rebutted by other officials from the Turkish government, who promised they support Iraq's territorial integrity. The same position radiates from the White House, but the Kurds at least found an unexpected mediator there.
The Israeli president Peres used his latest visit to DC in his capacity of head of state to inform the Americans that there was no use in trying to hold Iraq together. Then Netanyahu openly called for an independent Iraqi Kurdistan. Meanwhile, the Israeli port of Ashkelon welcomed the first 400 thousand barrels of oil, imported from the Kurds, without consulting with Baghdad. This turns Israel into the first major buyer of "independent" Kurdish oil.
But Israel's interests are not just economic. A possible Kurdish state would be a buffer against Iran, i.e. Israel would have a potential ally at the border of their deadliest enemy. Besides, the Kurds are a lever for pressure on the US, whose policies from an Israeli standpoint have lately seemed to be helping Iran rather than deterring it.
Despite the overt discontent with the internal and extermal players around them, the Kurds seem determined to walk the whole path to independence, no matter what. The presence of a formidable terrorist organization at their borders is not such a big concern for them - the radical Islamists are led by religious motivations, and they are aiming to topple the Shia regime in Baghdad, then proceed to Tehran, Jerusalem, etc. This is evident from their official statements, where the Kurds are almost never mentioned, but instead the topic is always the conquest of Shia holy places like Karbala.
It's hard to imagine a scenario which would stop the Kurds from splitting from Iraq at this point. The dilemma rather is when this should happen and how the good relations with the US and Turkey should be preserved.
Meanwhile Turkey, which is very thirsty for Iraqi oil, is currently only buying from the Kurds. This means that whether they like it or not, the Turks will have to respect the Kurdish interests. The Kurds themselves seem to have chosen a cautious approach, without too much haste and without sharp moves. It was notable that Barzani told his parliament, "Those who do not support us, are not necessarily our adversaries". It's also notable that many of the MPs who voted for setting the independence referendum were dressed in the traditional Kurdish garments, as if to acknowledge the historic significance of the moment.
So, not once since the end of the Ottoman empire has Kurdistan been as close to independence as it is now. But even if this doesn't happen immediately, Iraq will never be the same again. And the Kurds will be biding their time for the best moment to try again. And they will succeed eventually. So prepare to add yet one more geopolitical player to your future calculations.
