Talk politics.

Back in August, Russian president Putin visited the summer camp of the youth organisation "Nashi" (Ours), a few hundred km north-west of Moscow, where he answered questions from students from all around Russia. A young girl asked him a question about Kazakhstan, being concerned about the anti-Russian moods in that country. "Could we expect a Ukrainian scenario in case president Nazarbayev falls from power?", she asked. Putin's response, intended as a compliment to his Kazakh counterpart, actually had the opposite effect among the Kazakhs. "You know that president Nazarbayev is a competent leader, maybe the most competent in the entire post-Soviet space. He has built a state where none had existed before that, he essentially created the Kazakh statehood. The Kazakhs have already realised that the Eurasian space is in their favour and benefits their economy. They realised that they are thus entering the large Russian world, as part of the global civilisation", Putin said.

Excuse me... The Kazakhs didn't have statehood of their own and were part of the Russian world?! It's hardly surprising that many Kazakh citizens took Putin's response not just as direct insult to their culture, but as a clear indication of Russia's power ambitions. What's more, the friendly alliance between Kazakhstan and Russia is now being in a process of being developed further with a new important idea. In may in the new Kazakh capital Astana, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia signed an agreement on the creation of the Eurasian economic union, which will take effect on January 1, 2015. The Russian state medias qualified that as "news of global significance". The Eurasian union will now include 170 million people, and a GDP worth $ 2 trillion. Kazakhstan is one of Russia's most important allies. As early as 2012, the three countries created a customs union, and in the subsequent years a lot of trade restrictions were removed between them. Many Kazakhs however are very opposed to union with Russia. And Putin has as many detractors as he has advocates in that country.

( Things are going to become rather complicated for Kazakhstan )

120 years ago, Japan split away from the rest of Asia and sided with the Western "great powers", adopting the ideology of imperialism in the process. August 1, 1894 was the day when Japan declared war on China and pushed the Chinese army out of Korea. A few years later, Japan defeated Russia as well, and became the first Asian state to ever defeat a Western power (Russia was considered "western" back then, at least from an Asian POV). Later on, despite its utter defeat in WW2, Japan still remained in the Western camp, thanks to its security pact with the US. Under the nuclear and military protection of the world's greatest power, the resource-deprived country quickly rose to the status of 2nd largest economy in the world (a position that it has now relinquished). Now China's military and economic ascent is forcing Japan to choose between Asia and the West once more.

The prime minister Shinzo Abe (remember the "Abe-nomics"?) is well aware that Japan will have to face China eventually, and get closer to the US. America is the only player in the world capable of challenging the Chinese in their own backyard, which is why Abe's government has departed from the strictly pacifist Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, and that, on the very 60th anniversary of the foundation of the Japanese military forces. So far the Japanese army only had the right to act in case of direct attack on their territory. From now on, they'll be able to conduct military actions alongside other nations, whenever the Japanese interests are threatened. Last month the minister of defense Itsunori Onodera explained in DC what was behind these changes in the Japanese policies, stating that it's natural that a great power like Japan would want to expand its commitments in the defense sphere, and assert a more significant role in the defense of East Asia. The choice of words is quite notable here. So far Japan used to be considered mainly an economic power, but not a "great" power. Of course, Abe's government tried some damage control afterwards, downplaying the significance of the word "great". But the words had already slipped away, and were definitely heard loud and clear across the East China Sea.


( Re-thinking the geopolitical architecture of East Asia )

The game of water pistols is simple: the bigger your weapon the better, and the more people are playing, the merrier. And no one remains dry in the end.

Well, the Game of Sea Rocks in East Asia is played roughly along the same principles, save for the fun part. See for yourselves:



Last month a few dozen Japanese and Taiwanese sea vessels arranged a nice battle with water cannons between themselves. The Taiwanese wanted to pin their flag on a piece of rock amidst the ocean, and the Japanese did their best to stop them. The memorable event (which ended with a crushing defeat for the Taiwanese fleet) was one among many episodes of the recently inflamed row involving Taiwan, China and Japan over a few small islets (or rather, big rocks) which the three sides prefer to call islands. The hysteria has been growing ever since.

( Things are about to assume serious proportions )