Central Asia: who's in control?

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

We've often heard of the "strategic" partnership between Russia and China, but it's also true that their relations are not devoid of problems, even open rivalry. Mostly in the energy sector. And the topic of Central Asia is particularly sensitive for those two, because both Russia and China are struggling for influence and power in the region. The two have never been friends in that region, and in the future that'll be getting ever less likely. Because they have matching interests there.

Right now China mostly cares about its own economic growth that could help it cement the dominance of the CCP in Chinese politics. For that purpose, China urgently needs lots and lots of resources, which they'll keep trying to obtain with all means possible. And it's no secret that Central Asia, as politically volatile as it is, remains a real treasury for both precious minerals and energy resources.

As for Russia, it's rich in natural resources, and it rather wants to widen its political and military influence in the region, and return to its previous status of dominant power in the post-Soviet space. Moscow is striving to keep control of the key transportation routes and hubs, including the ones serving to export its energy resources. Because of all these particularities, the competition between Moscow and Beijing will be getting ever sharper throughout the entire Central Asian region.

On the other hand, one could argue that there's ground for geopolitical compromise as well. A "safe zone" where the Chinese business interests would not come in direct clash with the Russian ones. The last decade shows that China's economic expansion in Central Asia has been mostly a hindrance to the Western (particularly US) business interests, rather than the Russian firms. Unlike China, Russia doesn't intend to drill for vast quantities of natural gas in Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan, because it has ample energy sources of its own. Moscow is not planning giant mining projects in the region, either.

The Chinese political influence in the region remains rather limited. China would prefer to view the Central Asian countries as suppliers of oil, gas and metals. The Chinese leadership is pretty realistic about the balance of political forces in the region. They know that the Central Asian nations are traditionally in very close relations with Russia. Their political elites may be corrupt, but they're not stupid, and they'd hardly put up with the role of Chinese vassals. That's why in a political and more importantly, military sense, China prefers to leave the leading position to Russia, and focus on the economy.

The biggest source of concern for both China and Russia in that region is the situation in the areas adjacent to the Afghanistan borders. Both regional powers believe that the role of the Islamists in Afghanistan will be getting more active after NATO's withdrawal. No power vacuum can remain for too long. So they both have a common interest in dealing with that problem. And let's not forget the indirect presence of another geopolitical factor in the region: the US. Its aspirations may've suffered some recent setbacks, but it's not going anywhere.

It's a fact that the present US administration is showing an increasing interest in Central Asia, and China is showing a growing interest in the US. This means that the competition between China and the US will also be getting more acute. It can't be ruled out that this new situation could prompt a tacit alliance between the Chinese and Russians against the Americans. But my bet is rather that China would rely on a more one-sided cooperation with Russia, and they'll opt for the old and well tested strategy, "play with both sides".

Comments

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Bob Baer tells a cool story about his time working for the CIA in Tajikistan. He made an excursion into North Western China in search of remnants of the ancient Sogdiana culture. I was surprised by his description of the mountain people living in a fashion similar to Japanese tradition. It makes sense, though, when one recalls that the Japanese were originally the outliers of an ancient Central Asian empire. The Japanese language is based on the same root as the Turkic languages.

What does this have to do with the topic? Baer was a whistle blower who pointed to corrupt practices in the Clinton Administration over energy resources in Central Asia. Baer was a CIA officer in Tajikistan when Clinton supported the Taliban so that Unocal could do business in Turkmenistan.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Meanwhile, vast amounts of minerals rest beneath Hindu Kush along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border. Iron, copper, cobalt, gold and rare metals, like lithium. That'll potentially spice things up a wee bit more.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

We shouldn't under-estimate Turkey's increasing role in the region. Apparently they're trying to play the pan-Turkic card and exploit the cultural links with most of those nations, and though that might not be enough to gain a strong position in a multi-faceted geopolitical game like this, it's still a strong factor that can't be overlooked easily.