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talkpolitics
Through a barrage of the warnings that have been circulating in the media lately about a possible war with Russia within the next few years, the European member states of NATO have already begun laying the foundations for defensive military actions in case Russian troops ever set foot on the territory of the alliance.
"Russia is preparing for war with the West", Bruno Kahl said last month, the head of Germany's foreign intelligence service. But it is unlikely to be a large-scale attack on NATO territory, he added. Moscow could opt for a limited incursion or step up its hybrid warfare tactics to test the alliance's resolve.
NATO is trying to prepare for both scenarios: an all-out war, or the use of less obvious techniques designed to undermine internal stability in the alliance's more vulnerable member countries.
There are multiple opportunities for Russia to test the cohesion of the alliance, including limited land grabs, former head of NATO's Multinational Corps Northeast, based in northwestern Poland, Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart told Newsweek just before he left his post last month.
The urgency is already apparent to senior military and political officials. Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s defense commissioner, said in September that NATO defense ministers and commanders “agree that Putin could be ready for a confrontation with NATO and the EU in six to eight years.”
Estonia’s foreign intelligence service warned in February that NATO “could face a massive Soviet-style army within the next decade” if Russia successfully reforms its military. The Russian army would be “technologically weaker” than NATO forces in areas other than electronic warfare and long-range strikes, but its “military potential would be significant.”
"If we take these assessments seriously, this is the time to prepare properly, and it is short. This means we need to make quick and ambitious decisions," Kubilius, a former Lithuanian prime minister, told Reuters.
The main catalyst has of course beenRussia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which led Sweden and Finland to abandon their long-standing policy of neutrality and join NATO, extending Russia's border with the alliance.
Across Europe, NATO is now struggling to raise defense spending above the 2% of GDP that the alliance has demanded, but so far failed to enforce. Historically, many countries have fallen far short of that target in the decades since the end of the Cold War. But times are now changing. Many European nations have pledged to meet or even exceed the target, and officials and experts generally expect the new Trump administration to double down on pressure on Europe to further increase its military spending.
The countries along NATO's eastern flank are well ahead in this respect. But how quickly Europe will be able to increase spending and support companies producing more equipment remains yet to be seen.
NATO’s top military official, Admiral Rob Bauer, said in late November that businesses “need to be prepared for a wartime scenario and adjust their production and distribution lines accordingly. While it may be the militaries who win the battles, it is the economies who win the wars.”
There are already visible signs of preparation across Europe for imminent confrontation with Russia. These efforts are especially impressive in the countries closest to Russia's borders.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said in July that NATO was “not ready now” for a possible war with Russia, but that it “will be ready” in the future. “They are already preparing for a conflict with the Russian Federation and they are preparing much faster than some people would like to see, in every sense.” And also: "We know this from the military preparations. We know how they are being conducted. And I want to tell you, they are preparing for a military conflict."
Germany has begun drawing up plans for how it would protect important buildings and facilities in the event of a Russian attack and how Germany would serve as a conduit for hundreds of thousands of soldiers heading east, the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported last month. The first draft of the strategic document, titled "Operationsplan Deutschland", is already 1,000 pages long, and that says a lot.
Yes ...
Date: 4/12/24 20:32 (UTC)Talks about ending the war largely lean toward letting Putin keep some of the stolen territory and get away with war crimes unpunished. If this happens, he flat-out wins.
The scenario of an expansionist empire vs. people who aren't willing (Europe) or able (Ukraine) to push back hard enough has predictable results: nibbling away at edges until it sparks a wider conflict. We've seen it before. But people are still squeamish about really stopping Russia, and Putin is counting on that. It is working for him.
And just to put the Molotov candles on the shit cake, this ruined hope of nuclear disarmament. Ukraine had nukes but gave them up for promises of protection by Europe and Russia. And how is that working out for you? This means it is not prudent for anyone else to give up nukes, and is prudent to quietly pursue making them because that's the only way to force other countries to respect your boundaries.
Re: Yes ...
Date: 5/12/24 03:52 (UTC)And right now, Canada is about to be - once again - geopolitically sandwiched between Putin and Trump.
And Trump is now making noises about Canada becoming a "51st state"...openly.
Justin Trudeau had better have fallback plans for our safety.
Re: Yes ...
Date: 5/12/24 04:30 (UTC)Re: Yes ...
Date: 5/12/24 06:07 (UTC)Re: Yes ...
Date: 5/12/24 06:36 (UTC)Hell, no one in the US can even tell the ‘Stans apart. Most people think Tajikistan is a made-up country from a cartoon or something. US business barely does any trade with the whole region, and if Ukraine got swallowed up entirely, civilians might notice some higher prices for staples at the supermarket and that’s it.
When the US gets tired of pumping arms into Ukraine, Russia will steal the land it wants, sign a worthless treaty, and then turn east to Georgia. Mission accomplished. For any other outcome, Europe needs to stop bickering over the shape of tomatoes and start training soldiers, but given how little of a shit they give for Ukraine, do you think they will care about what happens all the way on the other side of the Black Sea? No.
Re: Yes ...
Date: 5/12/24 10:28 (UTC)Agreed.
>> Those countries - former appendages - are still in the situation that led to the formation of the USSR in the first place: They are very much within Russia’s sphere of influence, but to all the other global powers they barely exist.<<
And that's why Europe is making the same mistake it has in the past, which they will come to regret in the soon future. The more leeway you give a tyrant, the harder he gets to stop and the higher the butcher's bill.
>>Hell, no one in the US can even tell the ‘Stans apart. Most people think Tajikistan is a made-up country from a cartoon or something. US business barely does any trade with the whole region, and if Ukraine got swallowed up entirely, civilians might notice some higher prices for staples at the supermarket and that’s it.<<
That's because they slept through history class. I mean the pattern just doesn't get much more obvious.
>>When the US gets tired of pumping arms into Ukraine, Russia will steal the land it wants, sign a worthless treaty, and then turn east to Georgia. Mission accomplished. <<
I find this sadly plausible. Arms and money won't get Russia out of Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine know this. It will take boots on the ground. Other countries don't want to do that. They don't care about Ukraine and are too fucking stupid to see how this threatens them.
>> For any other outcome, Europe needs to stop bickering over the shape of tomatoes and start training soldiers, <<
What they need is to get in there and force the Russians out. Russia is bigger than Ukraine, but not bigger than the world.
Of course, we have one hole card that nobody is really paying attention to: Putin still thinks he can rely on General Winter to keep anyone from invading, but with climate change, General Winter has gone AWOL. This leaves Russia without its critical line of defense and they'll be blindsided.
>>but given how little of a shit they give for Ukraine, do you think they will care about what happens all the way on the other side of the Black Sea? No.<<
Sadly so.
(no subject)
Date: 5/12/24 05:03 (UTC)Putin: Do you guys give up?
Us: Oh yes yes we give up!
And that'll be it.
(no subject)
Date: 5/12/24 06:05 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/24 17:50 (UTC)Then once they had taken over, the Russkies armed us to the teeth, we were so heavily armed that our NATO neighbours were literally shitting themselves every time our country got evoked in a conversation.
That was then. Now we're in NATO. And our military capabilities have become a joke. You can see how some folks around here would feel melancholic.
(no subject)
Date: 5/12/24 18:56 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/24 19:33 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/12/24 18:01 (UTC)https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-12-02/new-russian-anti-satellite-weapon-revives-fears-of-nuclear-conflict-in-space.html