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talkpoliticsIn light of the crushing failures of the Russian army on the front in Ukraine over the past month, the Kremlin has again decided to change tactics. Russia is no longer trying to seize Ukrainian territories, but to destroy civilian infrastructure. Formally, the occasion is the so-called "terror act" on the Crimean Bridge, which took place on October 8.
However, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, as early as October 2 and 3, Russian troops received instructions to prepare massive missile strikes on Ukraine's civil infrastructure. The military units of the Russian strategic and long-range aviation had been ordered to prepare for the launch of massive missile attacks well in advance. Among the main targets were critical civil infrastructure and central areas of densely populated Ukrainian cities.
In the last few days, the Russian army has attacked power plants, roads, administrative and residential buildings, water treatment plants with combat drones and missiles. Obviously, none of these goals are military. Dozens of buildings have been damaged, including civilian critical infrastructure, high-rise and private residential buildings, as well as a schools in Kyiv. This has been the first missile attack of this scale against the Ukrainian energy system. Dealing with the consequences may take several days, during which power outages are possible, mainly for the industry, so as not to interrupt the service to the population and water supply.
The danger is that in addition to these hits on large energy facilities, there is massive damage in the energy substations. The strikes are likely to continue for some time, with Russia even using S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missiles, of which it has sufficient numbers, despite their lower destructive power against ground targets.
The fact that key infrastructure units are being damaged does not mean that they are completely out of order, of course. Everything is recoverable. In order to completely stop an energy plant, for example a thermal power plant, it must be damaged to a significant extent. One cruise missile is not enough. It takes at least a few hits for the damage to be serious. I think everything that has happened since the weekend is fixable. The question is whether Russia will continue to carry out such strikes. In this case, of course, the power system can suffer, but it is almost impossible to completely shut it down.
With this tactic, Russia is aiming to achieve several things. First, outright terror over the civilian population to reduce support for the Ukrainian authorities and President Volodymyr Zelensky. The victories on the battlefield in Kharkiv and Kherson and the release of Liman has raised the morale not only of the Ukrainian army, but also of the Ukrainian people, and approval of Zelenskyi's policies has grown. However, the medium-term goal of the Russian strikes against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure is to leave the country in the dark and cold this coming winter.
If these strikes on critical infrastructure become regular, if strikes on railways, bridges and power plants become part of the Russian tactics, then yes, this really changes the situation. But for now, according to official statements, a decision has not been made to plunge Ukraine into the Middle Ages. Well, we all know how much we can trust Putin's promises anyway.
It's telling that the Moscow-appointed governor of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, has described the strikes against civilian objects as "good news". He has said, "If such actions to destroy the enemy's infrastructure were carried out daily, then we would have finished everything in May and the regime in Kyiv would have been defeated". And also: "I hope now the pace of this operation will not slow down".
As the weather will inevitably deteriorate in winter, is likely to limit the fighting to mere shelling of already occupied positions. This will allow the Russian army to regroup and reorganize after the losses. And also it'll allow time for the 300,000 reservists whom they've recruited, with the partial military mobilization announced last month to be trained for actual combat operations.
The idea is that in spring, Russia will attack with this new and larger army against a Ukrainian nation already disenchanted and divided from the harsh winter, in which the suffering citizens will no longer support Zelensky and his resistance against the aggressors. Russia's main goal is to suppress the will for resistance among the population, society and citizens of Ukraine and scare them with the prospects of a cold winter, when there will not be enough energy for heating homes, or enough electricity for household and technical needs. Moscow expects that the population will not endure and will demand capitulation.
So Ukraine is going to need even more help in the months to come.
However, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, as early as October 2 and 3, Russian troops received instructions to prepare massive missile strikes on Ukraine's civil infrastructure. The military units of the Russian strategic and long-range aviation had been ordered to prepare for the launch of massive missile attacks well in advance. Among the main targets were critical civil infrastructure and central areas of densely populated Ukrainian cities.
In the last few days, the Russian army has attacked power plants, roads, administrative and residential buildings, water treatment plants with combat drones and missiles. Obviously, none of these goals are military. Dozens of buildings have been damaged, including civilian critical infrastructure, high-rise and private residential buildings, as well as a schools in Kyiv. This has been the first missile attack of this scale against the Ukrainian energy system. Dealing with the consequences may take several days, during which power outages are possible, mainly for the industry, so as not to interrupt the service to the population and water supply.
The danger is that in addition to these hits on large energy facilities, there is massive damage in the energy substations. The strikes are likely to continue for some time, with Russia even using S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missiles, of which it has sufficient numbers, despite their lower destructive power against ground targets.
The fact that key infrastructure units are being damaged does not mean that they are completely out of order, of course. Everything is recoverable. In order to completely stop an energy plant, for example a thermal power plant, it must be damaged to a significant extent. One cruise missile is not enough. It takes at least a few hits for the damage to be serious. I think everything that has happened since the weekend is fixable. The question is whether Russia will continue to carry out such strikes. In this case, of course, the power system can suffer, but it is almost impossible to completely shut it down.
With this tactic, Russia is aiming to achieve several things. First, outright terror over the civilian population to reduce support for the Ukrainian authorities and President Volodymyr Zelensky. The victories on the battlefield in Kharkiv and Kherson and the release of Liman has raised the morale not only of the Ukrainian army, but also of the Ukrainian people, and approval of Zelenskyi's policies has grown. However, the medium-term goal of the Russian strikes against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure is to leave the country in the dark and cold this coming winter.
If these strikes on critical infrastructure become regular, if strikes on railways, bridges and power plants become part of the Russian tactics, then yes, this really changes the situation. But for now, according to official statements, a decision has not been made to plunge Ukraine into the Middle Ages. Well, we all know how much we can trust Putin's promises anyway.
It's telling that the Moscow-appointed governor of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, has described the strikes against civilian objects as "good news". He has said, "If such actions to destroy the enemy's infrastructure were carried out daily, then we would have finished everything in May and the regime in Kyiv would have been defeated". And also: "I hope now the pace of this operation will not slow down".
As the weather will inevitably deteriorate in winter, is likely to limit the fighting to mere shelling of already occupied positions. This will allow the Russian army to regroup and reorganize after the losses. And also it'll allow time for the 300,000 reservists whom they've recruited, with the partial military mobilization announced last month to be trained for actual combat operations.
The idea is that in spring, Russia will attack with this new and larger army against a Ukrainian nation already disenchanted and divided from the harsh winter, in which the suffering citizens will no longer support Zelensky and his resistance against the aggressors. Russia's main goal is to suppress the will for resistance among the population, society and citizens of Ukraine and scare them with the prospects of a cold winter, when there will not be enough energy for heating homes, or enough electricity for household and technical needs. Moscow expects that the population will not endure and will demand capitulation.
So Ukraine is going to need even more help in the months to come.
(no subject)
Date: 18/10/22 17:42 (UTC)I'm talking of massive reparations after Russia loses this war. And continuous international isolation until Russia pays to the last dime.
(no subject)
Date: 18/10/22 18:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/10/22 06:33 (UTC)I doubt we will actually get what we're hoping for. I think we'll get a proxy war that drags on for three more years, completely destroying Ukraine, and ending with Russia annexing a large portion of the country at enormous military cost. In the meantime, the American military industrial complex will grow even larger, China will happily extend it's so-called "belt and road" projects further towards Moscow, and geopolitics in general will remain a slapfight. Many thousands of people will die because they don't want to live under the thumb of the Russian state, and in the end, those that survive will end up there anyway.
And as a deterrent, what good is "mutually assured destruction", if your enemy is already living in a frozen hell?
In my darker moments, I imagine that the most efficient route to a peaceful future would be to smuggle a truck-sized nuclear device with the Ukrainian flag on it into Moscow, and vaporize the entire goddamn city. Not to kill all the ordinary people, mind you, but to chop the head and shoulders off the Russian state and let the region fragment further into smaller countries...
Re: No doubt that's what you're hoping
Date: 19/10/22 23:58 (UTC)My points being: 1. There was no plan, and 2. The sharks were already in the aquarium.
Moscow does not protect its own far east from being exploited, but it does insist on being first in line. Just as the most jealous husband tends to also be the most abusive. Further fragmentation may be the best path forward for those territories. Will it ever happen? Beats me. What endgame do you see for Russia?
Re: No doubt that's what you're hoping
Date: 20/10/22 21:38 (UTC)Re: No doubt that's what you're hoping
Date: 21/10/22 22:06 (UTC)Re: No doubt that's what you're hoping
Date: 23/10/22 21:04 (UTC)Re: No doubt that's what you're hoping
Date: 28/10/22 20:48 (UTC)Re: No doubt that's what you're hoping
Date: 8/11/22 22:42 (UTC)My point being, Putin did not expect this military adventure to cost him customers, and Europe is going to have a hard winter and that's going to harden their resolve to find other sources of energy. Meanwhile, China doesn't want to buy Russian land or manage it directly - what an absolute headache; no one wants that - but they'll happily pay to extract resources, and if Europe doesn't want them, they can negotiate better prices. This situation can continue on both sides for a very long time. Europe will remember the bloodshed and the cold winter, and China always needs fuel.
I mean, I don't know if you've inspected a map lately, but the Russian Far East is not just big, it's FUCKING HUGE, and global warming is going to make it more accessible and valuable year by year. Russia would benefit from more customers, and at a certain price point they will bring even Europe back to the table, but cozying up to China in the meantime suits them fine. Their politicians can bond over their mutual disdain for the corrupt, immoral West.
I give it two generations. That's, what, about 35 years?
Unless, of course, Putin's government founders badly after his death and they have some kind of revolution. Then... Oh, optimistically, 10 years?
Re: No doubt that's what you're hoping
Date: 21/10/22 17:05 (UTC)Why is this? There seems to have been a huge and long lasting enthusiasm for NATO membership that you wouldn't expect from Russia's potential allies. This has been pretty constant for quite a while. Well, outside of Belarus, which I think we can agree is a bit of an outlier.
Re: No doubt that's what you're hoping
Date: 20/10/22 19:48 (UTC)Global conspiracies only exist in the sick minds of insecure nerds with too much time on their hands.
(no subject)
Date: 19/10/22 17:52 (UTC)A man lies resting while his wife is chopping wood. His neighbor asks him: - Why don't you chop wood yourself? A man replies: - What if there is a war tomorrow, and I'm tired ...
(no subject)
Date: 19/10/22 18:29 (UTC)