[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
I'll take a break from a currently tumultuous family life and digress into a thought that has niggled at my brain for about three decades now. Back in college, a friend and I were mulling over beers about a simple question: Why is invention—specifically the rate of invention—accelerating?

Some historians say it is not, that looking at inventions from the distance history provides is like trying to judge the speed of an observed train at a distance without knowing the distance; from farther away, be they historically or in proximity, things appear slower. But this answer is, to me at least, just waving off the preponderance of evidence for an invention acceleration as simply not worth considering.

Back in college, I suggested it was education. More and more are getting more and more education. Could that be it? Perhaps, but this answer simply pushes the question down the road; why are more and more getting educated at greater rates? In other words, what changed in our education system from previous years?

Very recently, I think I've stumbled upon the answer, and I'm not sure I like the implications. More are educated today, more invention happens today, and more of us do less strenuous work today for the same reason that prisoners today do less backbreaking work in prison. )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Early last month, I made a prediction: Based on my long-held opinion that instability and increases in fuel prices causes people to increase their driving, while decreasing or at least stable fuel prices causes people to decrease said driving, I predicted that

The next per capita miles driven graph will show
a reduction in miles driven from the "8.87% from peak."


Now that over a month has passed, it's time to head over to D. Short's website and view the last month's numbers. Drum roll, please. . . . )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
I just skipped over to one of Doug Short's constantly updating sites and checked out the graph of recent numbers concerning how much per capita we in the US are driving. Given the paramount importance over road travel is in these paved states, it's a good indicator of economic health generally, at least as a snapshot. I thought I'd share, and offer a prediction! )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
A few years ago, a friend at work had a problem while driving. He heard a noise, probably from the front end of his vehicle. Since he was driving a 60-foot articulated passenger coach packed to the gills with commuters, this could have been a real problem. It was. Though he didn't notice anything at first, when he made a simple lane change he noticed the coach didn't respond to his steering wheel like it used to, instead becoming sluggish in turns. He dropped his speed and made for a turn-off from the freeway to inspect outside the seat. Probably a front blow-out. It wasn't.

He notified control about the weirdness and just took it slow to town, then drove the bus to the garage and notified the mechanics about the weird. The next day, all hell broke loose. )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Last February, NPR's Planet Money examined a unique strategy by Ecuador's government to preserve its Yasuni National Park, an isolated and wild place reached best by hours in a canoe. This is one of those places with amazing biodiversity, with more tree species in a hectare than most more northern countries have within their borders.

The problem threatening the Yasuni? It has oil, and President Correa, seeing the destruction other Latin American countries have suffered for oil exploration/extraction, wanted to avoid a similar fate for his most wild of national places. His solution: ask for money to preserve the park as is.

Seriously. Planet Money interviews those seeking to preserve the park by asking for money:

As payment for preserving the wilderness and preventing an estimated 410 million metric tons of fossil fuel-generated carbon emissions from entering the atmosphere, Correa has asked the world to ante up in the fight against global warming. He is seeking $3.6 billion in compensation, roughly half of what Ecuador would have realized in revenues from exploiting the resource at 2007 prices. The money would be used, he says, to finance alternative energy and community development projects.


So, how'd that all work out? )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Fun time! I got to receive two very different posts on two very different topics today in the same Friend's Feed. Trouble is, they aren't "different" at all.

The first comes to us from our Friends at Faux News.



Oh, a surf bum who eats well on the taxpayer dime! The horrors! I haven't heard about this since . . . the 1970s. Lobster-eating food stamp recipients were a common trope back then, too.

Next, compare poor Jason's chosen fate to that of others, like you and I, perhaps. Jesus, Perry, down what rat hole are you scurrying now? )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Recently I read an interesting LJ rundown on the various problems with the new technologies that have flooded the markets with new oil-ish and gaseous energy supplies. Long-time readers are probably familiar with my obsession with energy issues, as well as my more recent diving into economic and monetary thing-a-ma-bobs. Here's a recap for those that have wondered why the two seemingly divergent topics have occupied my reading and mulling: They aren't divergent at all. )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
1 At the end of every seven years you shall grant a release of debts. 2 And this is the form of the release: Every creditor who has lent anything to his neighbor shall release it; he shall not require it of his neighbor or his brother, because it is called the Lord’s release."

Deuteronomy 15: 1-2


I've been lying quietly as a few in this community actually defend the practice of lending money at interest, even at extreme interest. In that linked comment, [livejournal.com profile] badlydrawnjeff even went so far as to say, "The system and the banks aren't the problem here." Though he is entitled to his opinion, I still disagree.

This is an LJ Cut. Some say they are  )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Last Wednesday, I volunteered to take a road trip to our state capitol, Olympia, and lobby my State Senator and Representatives on the importance of maintaining public transit. Yes, that position serves me well since I drive transit; but that is something I would support even if I didn't. All one has to do is live in Seattle to see how important buses and trains are to our economy. If all the people in those conveyances had to switch to cars, there wouldn't be a way to drive in our fair city half the day. Our roads would become near-permanent parking lots.

Thanks to a persistent tooth ache, I haven't been following State Legislative politics lately. Frankly, it's taken a turn for the weird. )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
I recently heard of a few data points I found interesting. The first, from Mother Jones Magazine, presents a strong case linking violent crime with earlier exposure to tetraethyl lead, "the gasoline additive invented by General Motors in the 1920s to prevent knocking and pinging in high-performance engines." As automotive use increased, so increased the lead flowing from the tailpipes; in cities, the concentration of cars increased each city dweller's exposure. As lead was phased out, the exposure likewise phased out. Researcher Rick Nevin made the first connection:

The biggest source of lead in the postwar era, it turns out, wasn't paint. It was leaded gasoline. And if you chart the rise and fall of atmospheric lead caused by the rise and fall of leaded gasoline consumption, you get a pretty simple upside-down U: Lead emissions from tailpipes rose steadily from the early '40s through the early '70s, nearly quadrupling over that period. Then, as unleaded gasoline began to replace leaded gasoline, emissions plummeted.

Intriguingly, violent crime rates followed the same upside-down U pattern. The only thing different was the time period: Crime rates rose dramatically in the '60s through the '80s, and then began dropping steadily starting in the early '90s. The two curves looked eerily identical, but were offset by about 20 years.

So Nevin dove in further, digging up detailed data on lead emissions and crime rates to see if the similarity of the curves was as good as it seemed. It turned out to be even better: In a 2000 paper (PDF) he concluded that if you add a lag time of 23 years, lead emissions from automobiles explain 90 percent of the variation in violent crime in America. Toddlers who ingested high levels of lead in the '40s and '50s really were more likely to become violent criminals in the '60s, '70s, and '80s.

(I emboldened.)


Ah, but that was only one data point, and I did promise two! )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
[livejournal.com profile] brucenstein's recent contribution regarding tariffs set on Chinese-made solar panels got me to thinking. There are not just one issue to discuss here — the more obvious and immediate being the way China's government funds industrial activity — but two. We must also consider what kind of electrical grid we have and what kind we want for the future.

To consider that, we need to also consider our electrical past. )
[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Yes, that's a pretty goading subject line. It's supposed to be. Here's my backing evidence.


George Stephenson's Rocket, the first
commercially practical steam locomotive.


This is the beast that started it all, The Rocket. In 1829, this coal powered locomotive won the prize offered for practical mechanical means of conveyance. Coal had been fueling industrial production for a century prior to the Rocket; wind, captured by sails, had been bringing raw materials to and delivering finished goods from those coal-powered factories.

It is metaphorically satisfying to talk about threads being woven together when talking about cotton, but the thread that mattered to the Liverpool & Manchester Railway was made of iron: thirty miles of it, smelted, forged, and wrought in ironworks . . ., and laid down as rails between the two cities that were now producing, in their mundane way, more wealth in a year than the entire Roman Empire could in a century.

(William Rosen, The Most Powerful Idea in the World: A Story of Steam, Industry, and Invention, Random House, 2010, p. 303.)


By the 1820s the choke point was overland transport. The distance between Liverpool's docks and Manchester's factories still had to suffer track cart deliveries at a horse team's pace.

The Rocket changed all that. )
[identity profile] green-man-2010.livejournal.com
Life after the oil crash.
Ok, last time, I went and pinned it on a vid that most people cannot read at work.
So I am letting y'all boot up something you can read quitely when you oght to be working :)

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

In case you have trouble reading graphs, this one has a Blue Peter style 'talk you through the implications' - complete with original sources, for those who wanna check.

It might seem like I am doom mongering , but I just want to say -
Let's put more into Planned Parenthood, make it optional, but make it a damned sight easier at home and abroad.

Let's have oil rationing, sooner rather than later. Let's also have everything rationed if it's made with oil.

let's try to be civilised about the few resources left and share them out among ourselves.

Let's start reducing consumption , reusing things and recycling more.

let's remember that civilisation as we know it will be over by 2050, if it lasts that long.
[identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
The Chris Smith documentary Collapse sheds light on the Peak Oil guru, Michael Ruppert. He is a whistle-blower of sorts who has become a lightning rod of both wrath and devotion over the issue of energy policy. The film does justice in presenting his case, but it does little to counter some of the more subtle flaws in Ruppert's technique.

To his credit, Ruppert sees community as a method for transcending the current demise of cheap energy. He contrasts the responses of Cuba and North Korea facing the loss of energy subsidies. He holds up the greening of Cuba as a positive alternative to the Korean path.

Where Ruppert pulls punches shows his reliance on a certain element that is responsible for the situation. Ruppert relies on charitable contributions, so he is careful not to ruffle the feathers of his donors. He taps sources for prediction that are written by highly informed analysts. This gives him an aura of respectability in the eyes of his followers. Ultimately, though, his role is to rake muck, not to find a way to prevent muck.

What is your personal sense of the post-petroleum future? Do you see the glass half empty or half full?
[identity profile] mcpreacher.livejournal.com
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.




hey guys i'm sure there's 20% of our projected oil we just haven't found yet. hey guys, where you going? guys?

so here's where we discuss the human oil addiction and perhaps come up with waffley milquetoast equivocations on how alternative energy sources are un-american or will be sorted out by the free market that continually fucks us over and over again. bonus points if you can work in digs about green energy and solar power not being worth pursuing, backed solely by assertions that society is static and there's no reason to believe that guzzling gasoline and wasting shitloads of plastic are behaviors worth changing.

i'll start:

"my daddy drove a gas car and that's good enough for me. also wizards can render conservation of matter obsolete. capitalism says growth is infinite; watch the numbers on my savings account go up. QED"

i would suggest certain people in this community consider the possibility that a government initiative in this direction may be necessary, as the alleged self-regulatory nature of the market has clearly covered up its own failure to account for looming shortages.

this is of course going off of the laughable notion that western governments will stop slobbering on corporate knob long enough to do its fucking job.

EDIT: put proper link back at top

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