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talkpoliticsThe purpose of the Chinese military exercise is to demonstrate China's capabilities. China wants to show that it has the military might that will allow it to conquer Taiwan and impose its interests in the region. I'm not convinced that the actions taken now are indicative of what China would do from here on out - the military exercise is just too much of a demonstration. The Chinese army would not reveal its cards enough to show how it would take the island.
But now we see that the threat is increasing. Entering the 12-mile zone around Taiwan is a novelty. The use of live munitions and highlighting the precision with which the missiles can reach their targets is meant to show that a new scenario is already being developed.
Yet attacking is one thing, taking over a country or an island is quite another. So is China really now capable of not just attacking Taiwan, but actually taking it over?
I'd say this is not impossible. But the question is whether the occupation would be able to hold on permanently and what resistance it would encounter. All of this would involve major destruction, which begs the question of whether China would actually gain anything from this.
In such a situation, China would lose a number of industries which it would rather gladly put its paws on - it is about the economic power of Taiwan and, first of all, about the IT and telecommunications industry. The semiconductor industry will be just as affected. So I'd say the following: in terms of material supremacy China's dominance is a fact, but whether the military capabilities would be sufficient for a permanent occupation is not so certain. To all that has been said so far, we must add that the population of Taiwan does not want to be "liberated" at all.
As for Taiwan's defense capabilities... The Chinese army is clearly superior to Taiwan in all three directions - on land, air and sea. If Taiwan's fighter jets are 400, China's are four times as many. The situation is similar with the naval forces: China has more than 30 warships, Taiwan has four. The submarine ratio is 70 to two.
Taiwan's military potential is much more limited than that of the Chinese military. But Taiwan enjoys wide support, especially from the US. There are also close contacts with other partners in the region. Japan, for example, announced last year that it would regard a possible attack on Taiwan as an attack on its own territory.
With her visit, Nancy Pelosi deliberately turned the world's eyes on this conflict. So, considering the circumstances, where and how could the West support Taiwan? Well, first of all her act already is a form of support - not to allow this conflict to be forgotten. The West in particular must show that it welcomes this solidarity. Europe could expand bilateral relations with Taiwan, and must make it clear that they support other democracies in Asia as well.
As for the prospects for war, well, don't be so hasty to panic just yet.
But now we see that the threat is increasing. Entering the 12-mile zone around Taiwan is a novelty. The use of live munitions and highlighting the precision with which the missiles can reach their targets is meant to show that a new scenario is already being developed.
Yet attacking is one thing, taking over a country or an island is quite another. So is China really now capable of not just attacking Taiwan, but actually taking it over?
I'd say this is not impossible. But the question is whether the occupation would be able to hold on permanently and what resistance it would encounter. All of this would involve major destruction, which begs the question of whether China would actually gain anything from this.
In such a situation, China would lose a number of industries which it would rather gladly put its paws on - it is about the economic power of Taiwan and, first of all, about the IT and telecommunications industry. The semiconductor industry will be just as affected. So I'd say the following: in terms of material supremacy China's dominance is a fact, but whether the military capabilities would be sufficient for a permanent occupation is not so certain. To all that has been said so far, we must add that the population of Taiwan does not want to be "liberated" at all.
As for Taiwan's defense capabilities... The Chinese army is clearly superior to Taiwan in all three directions - on land, air and sea. If Taiwan's fighter jets are 400, China's are four times as many. The situation is similar with the naval forces: China has more than 30 warships, Taiwan has four. The submarine ratio is 70 to two.
Taiwan's military potential is much more limited than that of the Chinese military. But Taiwan enjoys wide support, especially from the US. There are also close contacts with other partners in the region. Japan, for example, announced last year that it would regard a possible attack on Taiwan as an attack on its own territory.
With her visit, Nancy Pelosi deliberately turned the world's eyes on this conflict. So, considering the circumstances, where and how could the West support Taiwan? Well, first of all her act already is a form of support - not to allow this conflict to be forgotten. The West in particular must show that it welcomes this solidarity. Europe could expand bilateral relations with Taiwan, and must make it clear that they support other democracies in Asia as well.
As for the prospects for war, well, don't be so hasty to panic just yet.
(no subject)
Date: 10/8/22 20:27 (UTC)My preferred outcome would be reunification, with mainland China adopting small-l liberal, multi-party democracy in the Taiwanese fashion, without resorting to civil war to get there. The chances of that outcome may well be slim indeed right now, but it's not entirely impossible.