Libya

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

It appears that Tripoli is close to being taken by Libyan opposition forces. By the time you read this, Libya could very well be free from Moammar Gadhafi's rule. It's been a long time coming, and thanks to the "Arab Spring" and help from NATO forces, we could see a new democracy in the middle east soon.

As I'm writing this, many key areas in the city are held by rebels and two of Gadhafi's sons have been arrested. Gadhafi was defiant, but is now calling for a ceasefire and talks. The rebels are saying they will cease hostilities if Gadhafi steps down and leaves the country. In the last 12 hours, at least 1300 people have been killed in the assault on Tripoli.

The problem, as I see it, is what happens afterward. Are these rebels ready and able to run an entire country? What are the demographics of Libya, and specifically of the rebels? Are they looking for a secular government, an Islamic theocracy, something in the middle? NATO's commitment to this rebellion means that it will likely be involved in the regime change process, but to what extent and what end?

I'll try to update this post as major events occur.

Update 1 (11:35PM GMT): Rebels take Green Square in central Tripoli, rename it Martyr's Square.
Update 2 (12:35AM GMT): People celebrating in the street, Libya State TV building taken by rebels according to Al Jazeera.
Update 3 (02:25AM GMT): Obama issues "strongly worded statement" to Gadhafi to step down and stop the bloodshed.
Update 4 (07:45AM GMT):

• Three of Gadhafi's sons are now in custody, one is wanted by the ICC for crimes against humanity.
• Gadhafi's compound (Bab al-Aziziya) was attacked by rebels and tanks are sent out shortly after.
• Analysts are suggesting oil prices will fall gradually over the next few months once Gadhafi is out of power.

Update 5 (05:05PM GMT): This crazy bitch has been captured.
Update 6 (06:00PM GMT): Gadhafi's son, Mohammed, flees house arrest, Obama prepares to speak live

^{image source: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/18/libya.timeline/index.html}

Comments

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

I am hoping we'll see lots of pressure applied at that time for democratic institutions to be set up, but I agree that there's a strong possibility that things aren't going to go peechy keen when various factions smell a chance at power.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

After a six-month war like this that was rather unpleasant, the victors may want some reprisals of their own for Gadafi's regime, which adds to their problems. It's good Gadafi's gone, the thing is that war in many ways adds more to problems than it solves.