Libya

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

It appears that Tripoli is close to being taken by Libyan opposition forces. By the time you read this, Libya could very well be free from Moammar Gadhafi's rule. It's been a long time coming, and thanks to the "Arab Spring" and help from NATO forces, we could see a new democracy in the middle east soon.

As I'm writing this, many key areas in the city are held by rebels and two of Gadhafi's sons have been arrested. Gadhafi was defiant, but is now calling for a ceasefire and talks. The rebels are saying they will cease hostilities if Gadhafi steps down and leaves the country. In the last 12 hours, at least 1300 people have been killed in the assault on Tripoli.

The problem, as I see it, is what happens afterward. Are these rebels ready and able to run an entire country? What are the demographics of Libya, and specifically of the rebels? Are they looking for a secular government, an Islamic theocracy, something in the middle? NATO's commitment to this rebellion means that it will likely be involved in the regime change process, but to what extent and what end?

I'll try to update this post as major events occur.

Update 1 (11:35PM GMT): Rebels take Green Square in central Tripoli, rename it Martyr's Square.
Update 2 (12:35AM GMT): People celebrating in the street, Libya State TV building taken by rebels according to Al Jazeera.
Update 3 (02:25AM GMT): Obama issues "strongly worded statement" to Gadhafi to step down and stop the bloodshed.
Update 4 (07:45AM GMT):

• Three of Gadhafi's sons are now in custody, one is wanted by the ICC for crimes against humanity.
• Gadhafi's compound (Bab al-Aziziya) was attacked by rebels and tanks are sent out shortly after.
• Analysts are suggesting oil prices will fall gradually over the next few months once Gadhafi is out of power.

Update 5 (05:05PM GMT): This crazy bitch has been captured.
Update 6 (06:00PM GMT): Gadhafi's son, Mohammed, flees house arrest, Obama prepares to speak live

^{image source: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/18/libya.timeline/index.html}

Comments

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

The interesting question to me is why with support of NATO air power, an advantage that should from a conventional military point of view have been a decisive edge it took them six months to overwhelm Gadafi. That does not bode well for postwar Libya. At all.

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

The way I understood it, NATO members were split on how much or how little to intervene (which seems to be typical of all of these types of groups). They've basically just been softening up targets up to this point.

[mrsilence.livejournal.com]

On one side you have a highly disorganised, untrained and politically fractured militia armed with a hodge podge of begged and borrowed weapons, trying to fight a conventional war against a (relatively) well trained, disciplined and equipped, conventional army, which had a not insignificant political investment in the cohesive survival of the Gaddafi regime.

NATO bombing and air superiority totally tipped the odds against the Libyan national army, but the Libyan rebels still weren't quite sure how to go about winning.

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

Doctors and teachers don't make the best soldiers, especially against well,... soldiers.

[dv8nation.livejournal.com]

Let's start the countdown to additional blame being put on the US!

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

We should've done more than we did! Also, we meddled too much!

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

BTW I totally called it. McCain and Graham on Libya:
"This achievement was made possible first and foremost by the struggle and sacrifice of countless Libyans, whose courage and perseverance we applaud. We also commend our British, French, and other allies, as well as our Arab partners, especially Qatar and the UAE, for their leadership in this conflict. Americans can be proud of the role our country has played in helping to defeat Qaddafi, but we regret that this success was so long in coming due to the failure of the United States to employ the full weight of our airpower."

This just in...

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

... Rather than al-Jazeera bombing it's own offices, the CIA did it.

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

Don't get me wrong - i am happy to see another nation that was a dictatorship go Democratic.
however, the UK is a democracy, and we have rioting happening in our streets.

Just because a nation has material prosperity and democratic government, this does not mean that life is gonna be wonderful.

Unless people have aspirations that go beyond acquiring even more possessions, it will end in tears.

[dv8nation.livejournal.com]

Somehow I don't think consumerism is the real problem. Also, nice lamenting vaugly but not offering any real ideas as to what they problems are or offering any solutions.

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

Man, you're really scarred for life, huh.

Huh?

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Where did you get the idea that Libya is "going democratic?" If Nato nations have their way, it will become yet another puppet regime kowtowing to Washington.

Victory to "the rats"!

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Something which the above update missed was how the elite Republican Presidential Guard surrendered with nary a shot being fired. Not so elite after all.

Many apologists harp on about how Gaddafi's regime provided free healthcare, education, cheap housing etc. Of course it did; it had buckets of money and a small population.

What I would really like to see is all these benefits provided with a better distribution of income (Libya had a very high Gini coefficient), lower corruption (Libya was worst in the world), a free media, civil liberties, democratic elections etc.

Can the NTC provide this? I have some optimism based on their public statements that they will. Here's hoping that they keep those promises.

cf., The NTC's stated objectives http://www.ntclibya.com/InnerPage.aspx?SSID=4&ParentID=3&LangID=1

Re: Victory to "the rats"!

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Something which the above update missed was how the elite Republican Presidential Guard surrendered with nary a shot being fired. Not so elite after all.

Turns out the commander's brother was executed by Daffi thirty years ago and secretly supported the revolution. So when they came, they surrendered right away.

[okmewriting.livejournal.com]

So is Libya going to end up better or worse than Somalia?

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

question: How does one make Somalia worse?

[harry-beast.livejournal.com]

Better. They have oil.

[allisnow.livejournal.com]

*gasp* Not a strongly worded statement! Oh the humanity!

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

It's serious business! Feelings might get hurt, there may even be tears involved!

It'll be a family gathering at The Hague

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Earlier this morning Saif al-Islam and Mohammed Gaddafi had been captured.

Now apparently Saadi Gadhafi has also been captured.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/22/libya.gadhafi.sons/

But where's the big cheese himself?

Re: It'll be a family gathering at The Hague

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

early bird gets the worm.
the second mouse gets the cheese.

/random

It's the great fightback!

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Gaddafi loyalists have emerged from Bab al-Aziziya in an unspecified number of tanks are are attacking FFs and civilians (which are apparently the same).

A government spokesorc said they'll liberate Tobruk tomorrow. /snark.

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/44218013/ns/today-today_news/t/moammar-gadhafi-launches-fightback-tripoli-sons-detained/#.TlH-iWO6SgE

Re: It's the great fightback!

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

An update from ... 11 min 7 sec ago - Libya :)

Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr reporting from Tripoli says:

We pulled back a couple of kilometres because the area is still dangerous. There are still pockets of resistance particularly from the Bab al-Azizia area.The biggest challenge the opposition fighters are facing at the moment are snipers and the presence of snipers and Gaddafi sleeper cells. The streets which were full of people celebrating the end of Gaddafi's rule are now deserted due to fear.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Is Saif Al-Islam in custody? I hope he's not dead. I liked the guy, probably the only normal guy among that nest of snakes. Although of course he was a tool of his father.

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

Yes, according to the reports I've seen, he is in custody. He is the one that's wanted by the ICC for crimes against humanity for his part in the attacks against the Libyan people earlier this year.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/08/21/icc.saif.gadhafi/index.html?hpt=wo_c2

I tip my hat to the new constitution

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

I read the new constitution. There is quite a bit in there for women's rights and the right to political expression , trade unions and such. It seems to stack up towards a pluralist secular state, and generally, i like it.

I am a bit concerned about what the clause 7 says about 'the sanctity of religious doctrine' though. It could be used by fundamentalists against Christians and others who are not Muslims.

Re: I tip my hat to the new constitution

[allisnow.livejournal.com]

It could be used by fundamentalists against Christians and others who are not Muslims.

Get outta town.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

A good summary of how the day's events unfolded.

http://www.gloucesteradvocate.com.au/news/world/world/general/the-day-the-rebels-hit-tripoli/2267000.aspx?storypage=0

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Breaking news... Rebels now in Gaddafi's compound, where apparently there's tunnels throughout the city.

It's rather like the last days of Ceausescu