The pawns are a'movin
7/6/11 14:46![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsThe parliamentary election in Turkey will be decisive for the entire Balkan and Black Sea region.
Some rough translation of the key points:
"The June 12 election in Turkey will be decisive not just for that country but the entire Balkan and Black Sea region. It is strange that too few people are talking about the most important election in the region. An event which will decide whether Turkey will become an Islamist state or will preserve its democratic character. ...
Erdogan has made several attempts to turn Turkey into a presidential republic with a two-party system. And observers have no doubts that he would be able to achieve that if he gets 2/3 of the votes so he could change the Constitution. The reforms in the judicial system in 2010 led to the appointment of 109 new judges who in turn unanimously selected a supreme justice with outright Islamist convictions - who is a friend of the PM. ...
Turkey ranks 138th in terms of freedom of speech, only followed by dictatorships. At the moment there is a blatant violation of human rights under the Erdogan regime, and curbing of the freedom of speech and dissent. 68 journalists are held in jail on ridiculous charges, remaining there for years. ...
Within the last 2-3 years various international media such as NYT, The Economist and FT have published very critical materials about the ruling party and have called for the Turkish voters to vote against Erdogan, which has caused sharp reaction from his government. Erdogan even went as far as to accuse them of an international conspiracy against the "Turkish democracy". ...
The Turkish foreign policy is extemely important for the state of Balkan politics. Many observers now call it neo-Osmanism. This affects our [Bulgaria's] national interests directly. The Turkish foreign minister has mentioned many times that the 16th century was the most successful century for the Balkans. And this is the century when the Christians were pressed into a corner. It is also a blatant history revisionism, as in fact the Ottoman empire started its descent into decline ever since the battle of Vienna"
So, let me try to sum it up in a nutshell (x-posted). So, after for a set of reasons all of Turkey's prior attempts to get EU access met with locked EU gates, now Turkey seems to be trying to take a new direction and change its position in the region. For that purpose, it has started to pursue a bolder foreign policy, as was seen during the Iraq war (Turkey refused to join the alliance), and around the events with the Turkish flotilla in Israeli waters (mentioned in one of the above cited posts). Besides, Turkey is seeking to attain a new role as an insurmountable factor which no one could ignore any longer - neither part of the so-called European space, nor a typical bit of the Middle East. But a middle, unique role designed after a model of their own making.
Yes, we're speaking of the big geopolitical game here, which has never really ceased to play out, just changed its dynamic and direction. And we, the smaller players around the chess table, should constantly adapt to the new realities if we don't want to find ourselves in an odd position one day.
Distracted by our own petty domestic bickering (about the advance of Islam into these lands, the new mosques, minarets, the secret funding of various domestic groups from extremist Islamist organizations abroad, the turning of Kosovo into a cesspool of drug dealers, money laundering, arms and people trafficking, etc, etc), we've been missing the bigger picture. We're forgetting that the world is a big place, and what's happening not so far beyond our borders is actually bound to affect us directly at some point.
So, Turkey is trying to secure its place according to their understanding, interests and plans - neither as part of the East nor the West entirely. And their form of state would neither be democracy nor exactly a theocratic dictatorship, but something inbetween, which we're still not fully clear about.
Seen from our own ivory tower here, the next logical question is: would all this reflect on us and if yes - how? Well of course it'll reflect on us, there's no other way. Turkey is our neighbor after all, and a huge one at that. It'll inevitably reflect on us, in fact this process might have already started. We're part of the big game, like it or not. Well, just one of the many tiny pawns in it, which the bigger players tend to toss around the chessboard for fun.
As far as Erdogan's pro-Islamist party, it happens to be the formation which has taken the mission to implement that strategy. In this line of thought, his victory on the upcoming election looks imminent - the question now is if he'll achieve the needed 2/3 majority to change the Constitution, or this will have to wait some more until the next term. But that's of secondary importance. One thing is for sure - at this point the process looks irreversible, because apparently the majority of the Turkish society itself requires it to happen. And EU's constant negative reaction to all Turkey's Euro-membership aspirations has been one of the main factors which turned the tide. When they saw that they're not wanted in Europe, the Turks naturally figured they should start looking for a new identity. And they've found it. It's a classic example of an own-goal scored by Europe, in its myopic attempt to protect itself culturally while in the meantime embracing a major trade partner for the sake of economic interest. You just can't do one half of the exercise without doing the other, it doesn't work that way. And now it's biting us all in the ass.
Turkey has been exercising immense cultural and economic influence on the region ever since the Cold War times, and it's been on the rise. And that's normal. Because it has always had the enormous human and economic potential to bounce back from hard times, whereas we small buggers do not.
But, so much with the deeper reasons for all this. Let's move to the more superficial, local level. Of course, in order to figure out what we should do next on the matter, we should first try to understand where everything originates. Because at this point we've been mostly reactive, i.e. we tend to react to situations rather than trying to look further at least one or two steps forward and being proactive.
Do you notice how I haven't yet said a word on the question whether all of the above is good or bad for us? Well, here's the moment when I do that. Obviously, from our most immediate POV it looks mostly bad, rather than good. And our politicians should do the respective conclusions and take the appropriate measures. Geopolitical measures. What I mean: strengthening the cooperation within EU and NATO and looking for more guarantees for the national security, and possibly a way to find some common language with Turkey. Because the pieces on the board have started moving fast, while we're still napping in blissful ignorance. And no one will be waiting for us to wake up.
No, in case you're now hurrying to accuse me of alarmism and confrontationism (sic?), I'm definitely not saying that Turkey is automatically turning into our geopolitical rival, not at all. While anyone who is familiar with the history and dynamics of the region might be aware of the reasons for these understandable concerns wherever Turkey is being mentioned, in fact when you think about it, Turkey could even be a useful partner if we play our cards well. It's more of a factor which everyone will have to keep in mind, yet another variable that should be added to this ever expanding equation which we constantly have to solve for our own sake. We've always been situated between many hammers and many anvils. In such situations the smaller players tend to rely on flexibility and adaptability. It's exactly these pragmatic qualities that we urgently need right now, not populism, or sharp movements on the geopolitical scene and, respectively, more negatives for our country rather than benefits.
It's a thing worth contemplating on. Do we have the proper politicians with the capacity for a more long-term vision and the ability to take responsibility and make the righ decisions, or do we not? Or are we doomed to constantly be stuck into choosing the lesser between several evils among a ridiculously inept pack of small-minded and short-sighted poker players who don't even have knowledge of all the rules of the game? In other words - do we have a mouth wide enough for a spoon THAT big? Might sound too local for you, but when you think about it, it might turn out to be a universal question.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:13 (UTC)I certainly doubt they'd go back into the Balkans.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:20 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:27 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:30 (UTC)So no, I don't think Turkey will 'go into' the Balkans. It'll simply pressure its adjacent regions for its own benefit, a thing any self-respecting emerging power would do.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:34 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:38 (UTC)We're talking economic influence (which already is in place over countries like Bulgaria, Romania, Syria, Lebanon), cultural influence (Bulgaria, Bosnia, Albania, Azerbaijan, North Cyprus), and ultimately, political influence too (ever heard of that Turkish ethnic party within Bulgaria? It's been there for 20 years and even ruled once in coalition).
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:50 (UTC)Last week there was a huge scandal when two hundred ethnic Turks gathered in the very center of the capital Sofia to pray at the mosque. So far, so good. But for some inexplicable reason, they didn't go inside like anyone would do, they stayed on the street and prayed there. On the sidewalk. Using huge loudspeakers so that the imam could be heard within a mile. Then some right-win extremists (Ataka party) appeared and the confrontation started. And there are elections coming, so you can guess both sides (the Turkish party and Ataka) are hoping to gain political points at the expense of this much-cherished and famed "Bulgarian ethnic model" which has worked so fine for so many years.
People are stupid. They need just a little nudge to be pushed into an extreme, especially in hard economic times. And who funds the DPS party? A few organizations in Turkey.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:53 (UTC)Affirmative action at its best...
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:55 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:44 (UTC)Consider this. Our music scene has been dominated culturally by Turkish culture (chalga music); most of our goods, food, clothes, crappy gadgets come from Turkey. Even previously traditional industries here are now scrapped because they can't withstand the Turkish competition (but we're the ones to blame for our own woes, no one else is). There's the DPS party here, our Constitution clearly says no parties can be formed on an ethnic principle, but this one is exactly that. So yeah, it's not like we haven't been a semi-vilayet already.
In the meantime, the Russians are not sleeping either. They're pushing so vigorously for the construction of transit energy infrastructure across BG that would allow them to strengthen their grip on the power supply of half of Europe (gas, electricity). The EU is mainly barking and preaching at this point so they're in a losing position, but they're still another, third player. And the US is poking the situation with things like Kosovo, and the missile shield (Poland, Czech Rep., Romania, plus Bulgaria too?) Etc, etc.
You can understand how what only looks like a cool movie plot on your side of the Big Water, from here looks very real. When Brzezinsky was postulating his Grand Chessboard concept he knew exactly what he was talking about. And by the way he's now whispering behind Obama's back and into his ear on all issues of international policy. So it's real.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:52 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:57 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 13:17 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 14:20 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 14:36 (UTC)- in Iraq (http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/inside/turkey/2011/110124B.html)
- in Central Asia (http://turkaget.wordpress.com/2011/02/13/turkey-central-asia/)
- in China (http://www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/search-for-publications/browse-alphabetic-list-of-titles/?class_call=view&mode=view&pub_ID=3233)
And a new arms race (http://www.eurasiacritic.com/articles/turkish-russian-arm-wrestling-central-asia) with Russia in Central Asia.
I don't know if they'd accept Turkish influence, but I'm not sure if anyone would ask them either.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 14:54 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 13:12 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 13:15 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:18 (UTC)Au contraire. It's a very thought provoking post.
Very correct. Hypocrisy and inconsistency tends to have such results in the long run.
I'd go on bashing Europe even more but you've already said most of what I would've said. That said, I for one welcome this refreshing recent trend (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1032045.html) of Europe-bashing (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1031678.html) as opposed to the US-bashing which was previously beginning to annoy some of our more jing....eeh I mean patriotic guys around here (stand up, you know who you are!) :-)
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:21 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:27 (UTC)Edit to say this is a very good, and thought provoking post. I enjoyed it.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 12:32 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 7/6/11 14:09 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 13:22 (UTC)You rang?
Date: 7/6/11 14:47 (UTC)Re: You rang?
Date: 7/6/11 14:51 (UTC)Re: You rang?
Date: 7/6/11 15:50 (UTC)an apologetic jingoist :D
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 13:00 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 13:27 (UTC)No, I can't do it. You're right on most accounts. Turkey has been advancing. Not in the "boom-boom here we go" way but in the "hey, nice empty space - I'll take it!" kinda way. It's what anyone who has the capacity to do it would do. It's what anyone with more than one operating brain cell in their skull would do, otherwise they'd go down into history as total morANs. Nice post btw.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 14:57 (UTC)This isn't 1389. It isn't 1914. It isn't 1974.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 16:12 (UTC)You may excuse some people living 0 miles away from Turkey getting worked up about it, as opposed to you living 10,000 miles away from Turkey.
(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 22:11 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/6/11 22:12 (UTC)