On stranger tides
27/11/12 16:48![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsMost of us must have heard about the Pirate Party already. It has grown into an international movement, and currently is most prominent in Sweden, Germany and elsewhere. And no, it's not just about copyright and the internet - in fact it's about civil rights, direct democracy and participation, transparency, freedom of information... and yes, patent law too of course.
Well, here's the case of the Pirate Party of Germany (PPD), which has gained a lot of prominence in recent years. They're also dubbed the Orange party (not to be confused with another orange civic movement turned into party, which has become famous and even held power for a while in Ukraine).
The problem with the German Pirate Party is that it's going through something like a crisis right now. It's losing of its initial influence, and running out of steam. And the examples from all that trouble could well serve as a lesson for other grassroots movements now turned political forces, elsewhere around the world - including across the Atlantic.
And those troubles are not supposed to be there in the first place. After all, the political atmosphere is currently very favorable for the Pirate Party: the Greens, Die Linke and the Social-Democrats are all preoccupied with their internal bickering, the left is very fragmented even after the recent change at its tops (which Merkel should be very grateful for, as she's having her own share of problems on the Right side). Presumably, all of this should be urging the voters to seek for an alternative. So the situation should be like Bonanza for the Pirates.
But no. Contrary to any logic, the big new kid on the block is steadily losing of its influence, growing weaker. Most recent polls seem to indicate that they've reached their lowest level since March. The new movement seems to be heading back into obscurity, and fast.
What's worse is, the Pirates themselves are in total denial about this. "We don't have a problem", the party leader Bernd Schloemer keeps saying. But the sociologists keep registering a steady drop in the support for the party, which is now threatening to leave them out of the Bundestag.
So what's happening really? Well, it seems there are several main reasons why one of the most prominent Pirate movements worldwide has begun slowly sliding down into oblivion.
1. First, the Pirates are not so much about the debate, they're mostly about the scandal. Internal division, friction and bickering is inherent to the everyday life of the party. I'm sure they'd hasten to call that "open debate", but on the other hand that cannot pass without the regular scandal. Granted, their approach may be awesomely charming: which other movement could boast of having all its party summits directly aired through Google, and all its member contacts published openly for everyone to use? But these extras have their downsides too.
As a consequence of all this jungle of discussions and ideas, the Pirates haven't initiated a single socially-political debate of notable significance. Here are just a few of the missed opportunities: many Pirates reject the gender stereotypes, and yet the party remained absent from the public debate on the social security bonuses for one-sex marriages. At the moment the German media is circulating the topic about the luxurious lifestyle of the bishop of Limburg - but the Pirates (who are always so critical towards the Church), have remained silent on the question. Even on the issue of the EU crisis, no active civic participation was seen from the ranks of the Pirate Party. This passiveness is weird beyond comprehension.
2. Two, there are about 35,000 PPD members in Germany, 16 regional alliances... and only a handful of guys who are pulling the strings and calling the shots around the many round tables and work groups. More than a thousand online initiatives are aiming to help shape the party program, and its network is being used at its full capacity. From this point of view, full public exposure is served to the PD on a silver plate. Exactly how far this growth would spread and more importantly, how adequately the party would be able to cover all the issues it has embarked on, is yet to be seen. But so far the results have been unconvincing, as seen in point #1.
The problem with these sort of movements (as was seen with the OWS, and even an alleged astroturf like the Tea Party) is that they don't have a unified strategy - a decentralization which I'm sure they'd again argue is an advantage rather than liability. But the results are more than clear: where the PPD used to enjoy a 13% support earlier this year, now this has dropped to 8%, at a time when it should only be growing. At the beginning the whole Pirate phenomenon used to be charming and fascinating - after all, society craves strong, socially conscious and politically active figures who can take responsibility and tackle the issues head-on, and/or stand behind a certain idea and defend it with all their passion, authority and effort. On the other hand, the model of a heterogeneous mob mindlessly yelling slogans behind their self-appointed leaders, is threatening to turn into a grotesque ghost with a sinister face, and thus meet its end sooner than expected.
3. Thirdly, a number of flaws and errors have piled on within a very short time. Being the politically inexperienced laymen that they are, the Pirates have complicated their own task quite a bit without any help and pressure from outside. When the PPD chairman Bernd Schloemer called for the 45 Pirates in the Bundestag to personally support the movement with finances from their own pockets, he was bound to collide with a tsunami of discontent. So the solution of the party's serious financial problem is postponed for now, and things won't be getting any better with time. That's why a great lack of professional qualification is being felt before next year's election, and that's a condition for political suicide. It means that almost half of the party members are in the red, as far as their annual membership fees are concerned. And the financial management of the movement is in total disarray. Good intentions are a nice thing, but they can't run a party machine for too long.
So, the Pirates are facing another big problem: how to stabilize their party and stay in the "Bundesliga" of German politics for a sufficiently long time. There's a distinction between supporters and voters, and they're about to find that out soon, and in a painful way. The constant scandals in and around the party are already making some of its supporters scrap their party membership and move on to other forms of social involvement.
4. There's a real failure of the party's demands. The bulk of the party MPs come from the lower-middle and lower class: those are students, pensioners, teachers, even a firefighter. There are Pirates in a quarter of all German provincial parliaments as well - something that would be impossible until a year ago. Except, there's uncertainty about what exactly should be achieved through parliament work. The electoral potential of the protest vote from people who are disillusioned with the mainstream parties is still strong enough, but the Pirates lack clarity about the purpose and manner of their own work, once seated in parliament.
Moreover, as the election approaches and the various campaigns step up the gear, the attacks against the PPD will be intensifying, and meanwhile the Pirates are too few to withstand such an assault.
5. And lastly, the initial charm of the "pirate" idea has faded with time. Election campaigns tend to swallow most of the party activists' attention and efforts. They're mostly occupied with forging the platform of the organization, which is not so visible for the voters - they expect, nay, demand constant social and political activeness and full involvement in the issues the party has chosen to "own". After all, the expectations were very high after the last election, where the Pirates caused a huge uproar and captured the public attention. So it's normal to see some of that popularity fade away as they're sobering up under the pressure of reality. And reality is that no lasting change can happen overnight - and patience has never been a trait of grassroots movements of this sort, I'm afraid.
What's more, the struggle for leadership on the tops of the party will be getting heavier as election approaches. And the chairman will be getting ever more vulnerable, if the results keep deteriorating.
As for the Pirates themselves, their reaction is of an apparent imperturbability. "We have never trusted polls anyway. That is why the poll reports are not such a big problem for us", Schloemer says with a stiff upper lip. We shall see. If the Pirate movement goes back into nothingness so fast after its inception, that would be a terrible waste of opportunity.
Well, here's the case of the Pirate Party of Germany (PPD), which has gained a lot of prominence in recent years. They're also dubbed the Orange party (not to be confused with another orange civic movement turned into party, which has become famous and even held power for a while in Ukraine).
The problem with the German Pirate Party is that it's going through something like a crisis right now. It's losing of its initial influence, and running out of steam. And the examples from all that trouble could well serve as a lesson for other grassroots movements now turned political forces, elsewhere around the world - including across the Atlantic.
And those troubles are not supposed to be there in the first place. After all, the political atmosphere is currently very favorable for the Pirate Party: the Greens, Die Linke and the Social-Democrats are all preoccupied with their internal bickering, the left is very fragmented even after the recent change at its tops (which Merkel should be very grateful for, as she's having her own share of problems on the Right side). Presumably, all of this should be urging the voters to seek for an alternative. So the situation should be like Bonanza for the Pirates.
But no. Contrary to any logic, the big new kid on the block is steadily losing of its influence, growing weaker. Most recent polls seem to indicate that they've reached their lowest level since March. The new movement seems to be heading back into obscurity, and fast.
What's worse is, the Pirates themselves are in total denial about this. "We don't have a problem", the party leader Bernd Schloemer keeps saying. But the sociologists keep registering a steady drop in the support for the party, which is now threatening to leave them out of the Bundestag.
So what's happening really? Well, it seems there are several main reasons why one of the most prominent Pirate movements worldwide has begun slowly sliding down into oblivion.
1. First, the Pirates are not so much about the debate, they're mostly about the scandal. Internal division, friction and bickering is inherent to the everyday life of the party. I'm sure they'd hasten to call that "open debate", but on the other hand that cannot pass without the regular scandal. Granted, their approach may be awesomely charming: which other movement could boast of having all its party summits directly aired through Google, and all its member contacts published openly for everyone to use? But these extras have their downsides too.
As a consequence of all this jungle of discussions and ideas, the Pirates haven't initiated a single socially-political debate of notable significance. Here are just a few of the missed opportunities: many Pirates reject the gender stereotypes, and yet the party remained absent from the public debate on the social security bonuses for one-sex marriages. At the moment the German media is circulating the topic about the luxurious lifestyle of the bishop of Limburg - but the Pirates (who are always so critical towards the Church), have remained silent on the question. Even on the issue of the EU crisis, no active civic participation was seen from the ranks of the Pirate Party. This passiveness is weird beyond comprehension.
2. Two, there are about 35,000 PPD members in Germany, 16 regional alliances... and only a handful of guys who are pulling the strings and calling the shots around the many round tables and work groups. More than a thousand online initiatives are aiming to help shape the party program, and its network is being used at its full capacity. From this point of view, full public exposure is served to the PD on a silver plate. Exactly how far this growth would spread and more importantly, how adequately the party would be able to cover all the issues it has embarked on, is yet to be seen. But so far the results have been unconvincing, as seen in point #1.
The problem with these sort of movements (as was seen with the OWS, and even an alleged astroturf like the Tea Party) is that they don't have a unified strategy - a decentralization which I'm sure they'd again argue is an advantage rather than liability. But the results are more than clear: where the PPD used to enjoy a 13% support earlier this year, now this has dropped to 8%, at a time when it should only be growing. At the beginning the whole Pirate phenomenon used to be charming and fascinating - after all, society craves strong, socially conscious and politically active figures who can take responsibility and tackle the issues head-on, and/or stand behind a certain idea and defend it with all their passion, authority and effort. On the other hand, the model of a heterogeneous mob mindlessly yelling slogans behind their self-appointed leaders, is threatening to turn into a grotesque ghost with a sinister face, and thus meet its end sooner than expected.
3. Thirdly, a number of flaws and errors have piled on within a very short time. Being the politically inexperienced laymen that they are, the Pirates have complicated their own task quite a bit without any help and pressure from outside. When the PPD chairman Bernd Schloemer called for the 45 Pirates in the Bundestag to personally support the movement with finances from their own pockets, he was bound to collide with a tsunami of discontent. So the solution of the party's serious financial problem is postponed for now, and things won't be getting any better with time. That's why a great lack of professional qualification is being felt before next year's election, and that's a condition for political suicide. It means that almost half of the party members are in the red, as far as their annual membership fees are concerned. And the financial management of the movement is in total disarray. Good intentions are a nice thing, but they can't run a party machine for too long.
So, the Pirates are facing another big problem: how to stabilize their party and stay in the "Bundesliga" of German politics for a sufficiently long time. There's a distinction between supporters and voters, and they're about to find that out soon, and in a painful way. The constant scandals in and around the party are already making some of its supporters scrap their party membership and move on to other forms of social involvement.
4. There's a real failure of the party's demands. The bulk of the party MPs come from the lower-middle and lower class: those are students, pensioners, teachers, even a firefighter. There are Pirates in a quarter of all German provincial parliaments as well - something that would be impossible until a year ago. Except, there's uncertainty about what exactly should be achieved through parliament work. The electoral potential of the protest vote from people who are disillusioned with the mainstream parties is still strong enough, but the Pirates lack clarity about the purpose and manner of their own work, once seated in parliament.
Moreover, as the election approaches and the various campaigns step up the gear, the attacks against the PPD will be intensifying, and meanwhile the Pirates are too few to withstand such an assault.
5. And lastly, the initial charm of the "pirate" idea has faded with time. Election campaigns tend to swallow most of the party activists' attention and efforts. They're mostly occupied with forging the platform of the organization, which is not so visible for the voters - they expect, nay, demand constant social and political activeness and full involvement in the issues the party has chosen to "own". After all, the expectations were very high after the last election, where the Pirates caused a huge uproar and captured the public attention. So it's normal to see some of that popularity fade away as they're sobering up under the pressure of reality. And reality is that no lasting change can happen overnight - and patience has never been a trait of grassroots movements of this sort, I'm afraid.
What's more, the struggle for leadership on the tops of the party will be getting heavier as election approaches. And the chairman will be getting ever more vulnerable, if the results keep deteriorating.
As for the Pirates themselves, their reaction is of an apparent imperturbability. "We have never trusted polls anyway. That is why the poll reports are not such a big problem for us", Schloemer says with a stiff upper lip. We shall see. If the Pirate movement goes back into nothingness so fast after its inception, that would be a terrible waste of opportunity.
(no subject)
Date: 27/11/12 17:29 (UTC)(Spoken as someone who has often worn an orange shirt throughout his sporty "career") :)
(no subject)
Date: 27/11/12 18:50 (UTC)... like timetravel. Even if that one was more of a joke.
(no subject)
Date: 27/11/12 19:09 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/11/12 19:51 (UTC)But they can't change the structure, because it's at the core of their belief of open democracy. And so they're caught and talk and talk, but decide nothing.
(no subject)
Date: 27/11/12 19:37 (UTC)This. Especially when change comes artificially, and is seeded from the outside. Here I'm not necessarily referring to the German case, but rather to the Middle Eastern one. I suspect the West has invested too many hopes in the Arab Revolution without understanding the specifics of those societies.
No change can happen just like that: click!, and done. The latest developments in Egypt (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20451208) are the latest proof of that.