The Devil's in the Demographics.

[chron-job.livejournal.com]

An interesting, if under reported result of last night's elections.

Puerto Rico just voted for statehood.


In a 2 part referendum, they voted for a change of status over the status quo (54% to 46%) and Statehood over 'Sovereign Free Association', or Independence (61%, over 33% and 5% respectively.)

Do you think this is likely to come to pass in the next few years? Critics say the referendum's split nature made it "confusing" to the point that it will be unconvincing to congress, but it makes perfect sense to me.

Currently people in Puerto Rico are considered citizens, but they can't vote for presidents, and they have no real voice in Congress. If they were made a state, being between Connecticut and Oklahoma in population, we'd expect them to have 5 seats in the House of Representatives, and 7 electoral votes. If they become a state, what does THAT do to your demographic calculations?

My own thought is that short term self interest will lead the Republicans in congress to hem, haw, delay, and oppose this, because of the obvious political implications. House Democrats ought to support it... both for short term political gain, and because it is in-line with both party, and, I feel, generally American, principles.

But mostly, this is just one more little pebble on the large scale that says "Republican Party, DIVERSIFY OR DIE!"

*** Edit *** 15:13
EST For those interested in the mechanics, and example of the plebiscite is on page 7 of this PDF. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42765.pdf

Comments

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Excellent. The GOP will spend 30 years in the wilderness, wandering in pursuit of the Promised Land.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

Maybe.

But somehow I don't see the current crop of Dems lasting very long without opposition, you'd probably have some form of fiscal hawk opposition party coming out of the western/mountain states within a cycle.

[chron-job.livejournal.com]

> you'd probably have some form of fiscal hawk opposition party coming out of the western/mountain states within a cycle

Which was what the Tea Party was kinda supposed to be, until their statements and voting records on social issues began to accumulate.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

The initial waves of the tea-party movement were effectively blunted by the GOP establishment, but if local and state races are anything to go by the future of the oposition resides with folks like Love and Martinez.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

Barring something unexpected I imagine we'll be seeing Ted Cruz on a presidential ticket within 20 years.

Whether he runs as a Republican remains to be seen.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

LOL @ "future" considering his platform.

And he can run under any party name, he wouldn't get elected to national office. If the idea is that because a Latino is at the head of a ticket means they're going to wrest a demographic from the Democratic party is as silly as McCain's thinking merely picking a woman would mean Hillary Clinton supporters would vote Republican.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

I think you're underestimating the number of socially conservative (ie Catholic) latinos.

They're a major force atleast at the local/state level in the Southwest and if the GOP collapses I imagine that they are one of the more likely places for a new opposition party to start forming.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Yeah, this talking point was made originally in the Washington Post about a "study" (not attributed or linked) saying Latinos are social conservatives and would vote Republican if the GOP just relaxed its policies on immigration; and this talking point has been ramped up in the days following the election, despite having made the rounds in the last year. It's nothing new and ignores the much more sophisticated and nuanced reality. (http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/04/v-politics-values-and-religion/)


Latinos favor big government (75 percent compared to the general public around 40), ID themselves as liberal more than the general public (30 percent to 20), are progressive on gay rights typically, and are pretty even split on abortion, etc. and are

[foolsguinea.livejournal.com]

socially conservative != catholic.

Conservatism in the US has a lot to do with class and economics. Just because people are religious doesn't mean they'll vote for the right wing. Remember which side raped and murdered nuns in Central America.

[glo-unit.livejournal.com]

I think you overestimate Homogeneity of Latinos. People forget to account for the fact that Latinos are a varied group from different backgrounds and areas.

Ted Cruz is of Cuban descent while this would play well in Florida, and assure his ticket that state, it won't be as helpful in the Southwest were the vast majority of the Latinos are Mexican/of Mexican descent. I'm just going to say it, there are some Latinos who will not vote for him because he is Cuban.