The Devil's in the Demographics.

[chron-job.livejournal.com]

An interesting, if under reported result of last night's elections.

Puerto Rico just voted for statehood.


In a 2 part referendum, they voted for a change of status over the status quo (54% to 46%) and Statehood over 'Sovereign Free Association', or Independence (61%, over 33% and 5% respectively.)

Do you think this is likely to come to pass in the next few years? Critics say the referendum's split nature made it "confusing" to the point that it will be unconvincing to congress, but it makes perfect sense to me.

Currently people in Puerto Rico are considered citizens, but they can't vote for presidents, and they have no real voice in Congress. If they were made a state, being between Connecticut and Oklahoma in population, we'd expect them to have 5 seats in the House of Representatives, and 7 electoral votes. If they become a state, what does THAT do to your demographic calculations?

My own thought is that short term self interest will lead the Republicans in congress to hem, haw, delay, and oppose this, because of the obvious political implications. House Democrats ought to support it... both for short term political gain, and because it is in-line with both party, and, I feel, generally American, principles.

But mostly, this is just one more little pebble on the large scale that says "Republican Party, DIVERSIFY OR DIE!"

*** Edit *** 15:13
EST For those interested in the mechanics, and example of the plebiscite is on page 7 of this PDF. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42765.pdf

Comments

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Hehehehe, so under Obama the USA goes from 50 states to 51? Now he only needs six more states and there will really be 57 of them. ;)

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

"The error was correct", as we like to say here. :-)

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Is that a deliberate HJ Heinz allusion?

Throw in Guam and we can play 52 pick-up.

[chron-job.livejournal.com]

> Is that a deliberate HJ Heinz allusion?

Nah. He's referencing a gaff that Obama made some time ago, accidentally saying he had visited 57 states.

some people made a huge deal about it, claiming that he was secretly referring to the 57 Islamic states, whatever the heck that is.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

So... do you vote on the second part if you voted "status quo" on the first part? Or is that 61% just 61% of 54%?

[chron-job.livejournal.com]

The vote on the first does not restrict voting on the second.

If you voted for status quo, you might have a preference on what change happens if change must come.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

Ah, OK. Fair enough. I think it's a decent referendum, then.

[nairiporter.livejournal.com]

So will they have to add one more star to each American flag? God, this is an awful lot of work!

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Yes, Obama's making people potentially have to buy all-new American flags. Such an un-American thing to do. ;)

[malakh-abaddon.livejournal.com]

No... Only those Socialist/communist Democrats will.

Or those who are against it will
Move to Texas, and it will leave the Union, and we won't have to worry as there will still be 50 states in America.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

God Help Texas if it decides to fight for its 'independence' by armed force again. That will end just like all the other times it's been tried, people will die, there will be a major hue and outcry and in 30 years people will have forgotten it as utterly as the Garamantes. OTOH, I'm not so sure Mexico needs a petro-state with the usual fundie overtones that means to add to the destabilization caused by the Drug War there. OTOOH, the Cartels v. Neo-Confederate assclowns......

[nairiporter.livejournal.com]

It will re-join Mexico afterwards, won't it?

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

By all means, please do that ASAP and rid the rest of them of all that whining.

Besides, the map looks beautiful.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

yup

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

That is not how it works. New flags will be manufactured. States that observe the MLK holiday will buy new flags. States that do not will hold off on a flag upgrade as long as possible. Here is a prototype:

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Only ten stripes! Heavens to Betsy, I hope they don't leave out three of the original colonies.

And that prototype is one possibility but not the only one. The president gets to approve a new flag design, I believe.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

Apparently a significant amount of the puerto rican electorate didn't vote on this at all; if you include them, the vote for change to statehood drops to under 50%.

[chron-job.livejournal.com]

I'm reluctant to count silence as defacto support of the status quo. Where they people who didn't vote? Or people who voted, but didn't respond to that option?

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

Yes but apperently they don't have an opinion (or at least not a strong enough one to be counted) so the ayes have it.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Only if you assume that they would all oppose statehood.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

In Southern California at least the majority of socially conservative voters are latino, and on the local level at least, so are most of the GOP and more right leaning independant candidates.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the GOP's failure to capitalise on, or even acknowledge, this is one of the reasons they're the "Stupid Party".

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

If you ask me, the days of the GOP as it currently exists are numbered.

Romney was the "establishment candidate" and even with all the freebies Obama threw him them the establisment couldn't close the deal. The establishment Republicans have lost face so I expect the Tea-party faction to redouble its efforts to tear down the current "old-boys network".

Likewise the Evangelical/Moral guardian wing of the GOP is starting to split along geographic lines with the Mormons and Catholics in the west taking on the white Southern Baptists in the east.

The next generation of of the GOP, (or the party that replaces it) will not look like the current GOP. In some ways this will be in a good thing in others...

Well lets just say that the progressives who classify the current GOP as extreme aint seen anything yet.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Excellent. The GOP will spend 30 years in the wilderness, wandering in pursuit of the Promised Land.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Back in the day there was talk of making Cuba a state. Racists and anglo-chauvinists were adamantly opposed.

[rimpala.livejournal.com]

Might have prevented the whole missile crisis.