The return of the Putin III

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

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I think this vid is pretty succinct, how'dya think? Well, the exit polls are unambiguous. There'll be no 2nd round, Putin wins the presidential election in Russia. 58-60% roughly. And no surprise there.

The result was anticipated, and is hardly a shock for anybody. More important is what the opposition's reaction would be and what are Putin's next moves. He'll have to choose between reform or constant protests, repressions and economic stagnation. Whichever way he chooses, he'll have to relinquish absolutist power. Why? Well, let's see why.

First, about the vote. Today the central streets of Moscow and St.Petersburg were blocked by military trucks an thousands of troops. It was like martial law. The opposition is planning to begin protests on Monday, and on Sunday only pro-Putin rallies were allowed. Meanwhile the ministry of internal affairs decided to deploy a small army that could easily overtake a medium-sized city.

The first data from the exit polls showed about 50% turnout, which would be just about enough to conveniently shut the mouths of the critics who were ready to claim that the elections are illegitimate because they don't reflect the will of the people.

There were lots of complaints that no true choice and no real alternative to Putin had been presented. All other 4 candidates were unelectable clowns (see video above) - the commie Zyuganov, the ultra-nationalist Zhirinovski, the former speaker of parliament Mironov and the billionaire Prokhorov (prior post here). Others are convinced that Putin is "Our Father" and the only strong choice, the Savior who has the energy and competence to lead the largest country in the world (and incidentally, the richest in natural resources). "I'll vote for Putin because he's a good president and he'll take care of our children, our future" (literal translation from a Russian ЖЖ-er).

Others are hatin' on his macho image and they despise the system he has created, the one that has made Russia look like... well, Russia. It has always been like that, come to think of it - be it the Romanovs, Stalin, or the Soviet mummies. Seems like the old proverb is true after all: Every Nation Deserves The Leaders It Gets.

So, given the specifics of the Russian constitution (very conveniently shaped btw), Putin could hypothetically reign from his throne in Kremlin until 2024. Unless another change of constitution happens, which would proclaim him emperor. But still, 2024 sounds nice. That'll be a reign almost as long as Stalin's. Congrats, Russia.

This time it didn't go so as easily for Putin as it may look like, though. Initially he underestimated the protests against the rigged parliamentary elections last December. He didn't even try to conceal his condescension when he called the white ribbons that were the symbol of the Fair Elections movement "a bunch of unwrapped condoms". But his election campaign went in a completely different tone - after all, Putin had to be re-elected in order to stop the resurgence of anarchy in the country - that was his main message (as if he was almost saying that his puppy Medvedev had allowed anarchy back into the country; which may make you wonder how come he'll nominate him for prime-minister again - and you can be sure that he will).

But, like Masha Gessen said on Jon Stewart's show last Wednesday (bold lady indeed), there are three pillars upon which Putin's power structure rests: 1) fear, 2) connections, and 3) money. And the fear factor has now been taken out of the equation. Now Putin will have to deal with the winds of change that are sweeping across the Russian cities. Moscow is holding its breath. The police is everywhere. What will happen from here on, might very much depend on how much per cents Putin wins. If he wins a lot, like more than 60-70%, then a radicalisation of the situation is very possible. But if he wins much less, then he could prove prone to concessions in order to ease the tensions.

Putin could respond to the bottom-up push for change in two possible ways. He could either make concessions or he could try to suppress it with force. But either way, he's in a lose-lose situation because either scenario would weaken his power, albeit in a different way. His KGB past, his authoritarian reputation and his increasingly anti-West rhetoric are creating suspicions that he'll choose the hard way. And this would mean further encapsulating of the regime, more repressions against the media, crushing the protests, persecuting the opposition, and flexing geopolitical muscles in Europe and the UN Security Council. And thus Putin's new term could prove a real nightmare.

The new/old president of Russia could choose reform of course - new parliamentary elections, freer media, releasing the political prisoners. But that looks highly unlikely. And either way, all of this would only weaken his grip on power. The harder he tries, the more it'll be slipping away.

All indications are that the end of the authoritarian rule in Russia can be already spotted on the horizon. But what will follow after that... Now, that is a very disturbing question.
 

Comments

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Putin may be returning to Kremlin but meanwhile Russia has changed. It's no longer that Russia, and he may not be aware of that just yet. He has ceased being the beloved irreplaceable leader who can save the country (from itself?) Now more and more people are getting fed up with him. They call it the Putin-Medvedev two-headed hydra, and that's telling.

Putin's system is running out of steam, and he's becoming irrelevant. He could go in peace but obviously he won't. This only promises a lot of turmoil. Interesting times are coming ahead for the Russians.

You be very careful next time you go there.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Putin's understanding of a 'modern' Russia includes a very strong state that could guarantee security and order in society and to preserve the Orthodox faith as a basis of the Russian identity. That's why his party is mostly nationalist, it's not either progressive or conservative. In the whole scheme the personal rights and democratic principles are of secondary if not tertiary importance. That's the essence of his system.

But in his megalomania he has lost a connection with reality. His sense of invincibility is the seed of his downfall.

If suddenly his conscience speaks up tomorrow and he decides to address the real problems of his country, like corruption, elction fraud, state dictate on entire economic sectors and the judicial system, it would eventually destroy the whole system he created. And even if those are his intentions, which I doubt, the resistance from those who benefit from the system would be immense. Too strong even for Putin the 3rd.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

It's interesting, the similarities and the differences between the US president and the Russian president. They're both controlled by apparatchiks who stay behind the curtains, to a certain extent. But the Russian president, at least in Putin's case, seems much more powerful.

On a side note, the hardliners are gaining ground in Iran at the moment. There were local elections these days, and Ahmadinejad is made to look like the mildest among moderates in Iran. Yet another puppet who's being pulled by strings.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

I've never seen Putin so weak and defensive. On several occasions he had to resort to petty tactics, whining like a spoiled brat. There was even some conspiracy scenario with some assassination plot against him or some such shit. Sure, his victory was pre-determined. But not because he's so awesome and he can kill a fucking polar bear with his bare hands, no way. It was because he didn't have any viable alternative candidate against himself. And for a reason.

The strong spot of his opponents is not the elections, it's elsewhere, on the street. The protest movement is spreading. And he's not used to seeing that. It caught him completely by surprise. Let's not be fooled by the staged praise by the jubilant crowds at Luzhniki where thousands of paid clappers chanted his name in a semi-trance against 15 euros. The truth is very different and more painful for Dear Leader. His saintly aura is gone. He's in for a bumpy ride from now on. And in Russia, when the sharks sniff blood, they're sure to start circling around their prey. It's a principle as sure as nightfall.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Let's not underestimate his chameleonic capabilities, though. He may look visibly older, but the question is, does he have enough willingness to show himself as a "modern" and strong leader and reformer? Because that was his trademark in the past. Let's recall that in the beginning he was Mr Nobody. He was hand-picked by Yeltsin because the old man believed his protege would be easy to control. And for a time Putin was indeed a very useful tool. Remember what he looked like in the beginning. He was hardly able to say two sentences in front of more than 10 people. It was never his speciality to be a charismatic orator in the first place. But his polit-technologians from his Effective Policy foundation worked very hard on him and they polished his image of a modern Tzar. One of them even likened Putin to a doctor and the Russian society to a patient who urgently needs their leg set in plaster. Well, plaster indeed it is. Russia hasn't removed that plaster ever since.

He has always managed to adjust to the changing realities, posing as a firm and powerful leader who knows what he's doing. In the beginning he even ventured with some economic liberalisation, something that looked like real reforms. He was flirting with the West. He closed the Russian military bases in Cuba and Vietnam. But then he suddenly decided that it's worth trying to strengthen the state, he arrested Khodorkovsky and he started a series of authoritarian actions that eventually shaped his regime as a repressive machine rather than a reformed modern state. And he said byebye to all attempts for rapprochement with the West. The Re-start episode with Hillary was a nice breath of fresh air but that was all, it stopped right there.

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

I recently watched a documentary on ARD (a German TV) that showed the "other side" of Putin. It focused mostly on his early years before and during his training in KGB. Putin the idealist boy, the self-made man, etc. The lady who was interviewed by Stewart has called her book The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin. And that says a lot.

[zzerzonat.livejournal.com]

Nice vid. Well there we have it 65% and it is a new Tcar. He already choosed his way and it is not peacefull. He will not soften his regiment also and with strengthening of unlawful people with the rise of same 90's banditism country will might soon come to a fail state. As I live in RF for all my life I am comparing today's situation with 90's - all the same terracts, murder and suicide news every freaking day.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

That's bad to hear. Well, you know what you have to do.

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Grab a gun?

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

More like, put pressure on the motherfuckers.

[zzerzonat.livejournal.com]

Yes we all are prepared to leave to some nice and warm places=)

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Nooo, not that!

[telemann.livejournal.com]

I saw Masha Gessen's interview with Jon Stewart, discussing her biography of Putin. (http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-february-29-2012/masha-gessen) I'm going to buy an electronic copy of the book tonight, it looks fascinating. If anyone else is reading it now, I'd love to hear what you think of it. Thanks ;)

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Da, comrade. Same interview :)
I'm going to pirate-download an electronic copy of the book and read it a.s.a.p. ;)

[telemann.livejournal.com]

EEEEpppp. Sowwy, I should never cook dinner and do laundry and LJ at the same time, so I didn't *clicky* the link.

As a lowly music editor who makes such a pittance, I GASPETH at Maestro Kol, the pirate. :P

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

[pofigistiks.livejournal.com]

Masha Gessen - it is a shame.

[nairiporter.livejournal.com]

In what sense?

[pofigistiks.livejournal.com]

She writes nonsense that normal people feel ashamed to read it.

[asket-klim.livejournal.com]

Yes, now we have Putin for next 6 years. In 2018 il be the president.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

I'm planning to obtain Russian citizenship so I could vote for you!

[asket-klim.livejournal.com]

Yes, this is wisdom decision!

[danalwyn.livejournal.com]

I wonder if any of Russia's neighbors are nervous right now. Putin has always tried to fit the "strong leader" mode, no matter which part of the world he was trying to maneuver alongside, and play the role of the one man who can save Russia from chaos within and foreign interference without. I don't think he's going to start a war or anything (he's not stupid), but he might be willing to demonstrate his "assertiveness" and restore "Russia's place in the world" by expanding Russian influence into their traditional satellites in Central Asia and the Caucuses (or Eastern Europe). All those places are a bit touchy right now, and if Russian diplomacy is as ham-fisted as American diplomacy something could go up in smoke.

If I were a small nation near the Russian border I might be expecting a new assertion of Russian primacy from Moscow, and preparing for the possible collapse of one of my neighboring house-of-cards nations under a badly placed poke.

[mrbogey.livejournal.com]

That's kind of the rub, ain't it?

Putin has made it obvious he has hegemonic goals if not imperial.

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

I recommend a very relevant new documentary about Putin: link (http://documentaryheaven.com/putin-russia-and-the-west/).