Post-Friday not-so-funny-once-you-start-thinking-it-through: Palin Edition

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

I was working on a more serious post about the criteria by which we judge potential leaders but this line of thinking became just too entertaining not to share...

I first became aware of Mrs. Palin during the 2008 election cycle. I like her insofar as she drives certain people bonkers, but have never really considered her a serious candidate.

That said, recent posts and the PMail un-scandal has gotten me thinking.

What would it take for Sarah Palin to get elected President?

First we must identify what stands between her and electoral victory. Napoleon famously said that on any battlefield there will be a single point of decision, a moment in time where the battle will either be won or lost. What happens at that point is critical. So where is this point?

As with any fringe or semi-fringe canidate I would argue that her chief obstacle is the public's perception. If she campaigns against Obama and the other Republican candidates she'll lose, buried under the slew of negative stories about her and general perception of being "outside the main-stream".

Therefore her most dangerous enemy, the one she must defeat in order to be considered a viable canidate, is the press.

Fortunately for her, the enemy is weak. a recent poll (take it as you wish) reported that ...just 19.6% of those surveyed could say they believe all or most news media reporting. This is down from 27.4% in 2003. Just under one-quarter, 23.9%, said that they believe little or none of reporting while 55.3% suggested they believe some media news reporting.

This is the point of decision. All she has to do is sell the idea that "Everything you've heard about me is probably wrong, because the Media is wrong." and quite frankly, Palin is positioned much better here than anyone has given her credit for.

With so many talking heads spouting so much idiocy making the idea stick shouldn't be too hard.

Hell the Daily Show's already on it

and he's not alone...

If she can convince a significant portion of the public that everything they think they know about her is unreliable. Her fringe status will cease to be a handicap and an election bid becomes winnable.

Comments

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

Her negatives are insurmountably high. Rightly or wrongly, too many people see her as the devil.

"What would it take for Sarah Palin to get elected President? "

[squidb0i.livejournal.com]

Re: "What would it take for Sarah Palin to get elected President? "

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

The Druidic hell is a frozen place.

my favorite variation on the general theme:

[op-tech-glitch.livejournal.com]

Re: "What would it take for Sarah Palin to get elected President? "

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

Poor Diablo.

I'd like to see Palin...

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

What if she were to run as a third party maverick candidate? I can see the three way race now: Obama vs. Palin vs. Gingrich.

Re: I'd like to see Palin...

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

...really? Gingrich?

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

You know your country's fucked when you legitimately judge someone's political chances by the level of ignorance you can maintain among potential voters.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

DQ.

[kinvore.livejournal.com]

Next Presidential election will be entirely about the economy. If the economy is the same/worse, whoever is the GOP nominee will likely win no matter who they are. If the economy improves Obama will likely win no matter who they are.

We want to pretend elections are mandates on our beliefs (or against those of our opponents) but right now most people don't give a rat's ass about anything but jobs. Spending, the deficit, the environment, Iraq/Afghanistan, education, etc., that doesn't mean shit to someone who is trying to find a way to feed their families.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

Agreed on all points.

[udoswald.livejournal.com]

The American people may not trust the media that much (with Fox News the most watched news network, I don't blame them) but that doesn't mean they're going to change their minds on Palin. People are very reluctant to change their minds once they've come to a strong conclusion and a prohibitively large portion of the population has come to such a conclusion about Palin. Besides, the picture of Palin that exists in the minds of most Americans isn't entirely molded by the media. The American people have seen her and heard her words directly. Those words are what soured us to her, not some media reporting on those words.

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

It makes me wonder how many people would both say that they don't believe what the media says and that what they know about her doesn't come through the media. I think this would apply to both those who like and dislike her.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

Exactly^

While this is purely an opinion, I suspect that she is a lot savvier than her opponents give her credit for. As Stewart points out, expecting people to follow you isn't that ridiculous when there are people following you.

If she can shake her fringe status or somehow render it a non-factor I don't think the election would be as one-sided as people make it out to be.

Besides this isn't exactly meant as a serious thread, more of a fun "what if".

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

I think she knows how to win a popularity contest, not much else. It could be considered "savvy", but without something more substantial to go along with it, she's less savvy, more idiot savant.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

Not disagreeing with you, but let's face it, elections in this day and ARE popularity contests.

[udoswald.livejournal.com]

I think a lot of people have based their opinions of her on things other than the media. This works for those who like her and those who hate her. My opinion of her is certainly not based solely on what I've seen in the media. The woman is on TV 24/7 and you can easily hear her in her own words. You don't need the media to tell you she's an idiot, she'll tell you herself.

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

I think you've struck on one of the subtleties I was trying to draw out. Where have you seen her if *not* the media? Now, we can see her direct quotes and words, but these are still somewhat filtered through our personal lenses. It would depend on what outlets we were getting our information on as to what we actually saw of her own words - cutting and context are important.

It seems you've termed the "media" as those who make opinions or editorialise, but there is just as much manipulation going on through the decision of what to show and when. It's almost impossible to have an opinion on anything that isn't exceptionally coloured by our interaction with the media.

I have to admit that my opinion of her comes from the media, of course it does, I live on the other side of the world. Even if I'm getting my info from here it's still coloured by the media that everyone else watches. What I don't understand is how there is perception that the media has treated her "unfairly". Some aspects may have, but is there any potential runner from the current GOP field that has had all the free kicks that Palin has been given by Fox?

[udoswald.livejournal.com]

There are plenty of clips on the internet that don't come from the "media" (though I guess you could call most things on the internet "social media"). People video tape her appearances. She posts things on Twitter that prove she's not the sharpest tool in the shed.

The notion that she's been treated unfairly is based entirely on the fact that her worshipers don't want to admit she's an idiot. She's been treated like a queen by the media from the very beginning. They hang on her every word and handle her with kid gloves. Also, as you said, she has an entire news network (Fox) devoted to getting her elected if she chooses to run. Her people deem any coverage that's not completely fawning and positive to be "unfair" but that's just not an objective measure. By any objective measure, the media is the only reason she's still in the public eye and the only reason she still pulls in so much for her speaking appearances (not to mention the only reason anyone still considers her a viable candidate for President). She should get down on her knees and thank her God that the media exists because, without it, she'd be nothing.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

I don't think it's quite so one sided. Remember that she doesn't have to convince everyone, just 51% of voters (less if there's a 3-way). A feat that the allegedly idiotic George W Bush pulled off twice.

[udoswald.livejournal.com]

Yes, but her disapproval is already near 50%. A challenger's best friend at this point in any race is lack of name recognition. If people have already made up their mind about you, and it's not good, it's very hard to break through. That's why Bachmann's numbers are so much better than Palin's, not because Bachmann is better than Palin but because most people don't know who she is.

Also, while she does have to convince "51% of voters", it's not quite that simple. Right now, around half the electorate thinks she's an idiot. If she convinces 51% that she's not an idiot, and that she could actually handle being President, that would be a start but it wouldn't guarantee the win. Even those who think she's electable might not necessarily vote for her. She could have approval ratings of 51% and still lose (the electorate is polarized but there's no saying that some of her 51% might not be the same people who rank Obama favorably).

I still say that being a challenger at this point, and having numbers as horrible as hers, is not a way to become President. Not that it matters because she's not going to run. She's going to pretend to be about to start running for as long as she can but she realizes as well as anyone that 2012 is a fool's errand. She'll join Chris Christie in sitting this one out and she'll be in the race in 2016 when she doesn't have to run against an incumbent.

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

I agree that in today's climate, "fringe status" ceases to be a handicap.

[foolsguinea.livejournal.com]

Palin is a quitter. At this point all you're doing is proving that you see her like a pop star you want to come back with a new album. A vote for Palin is a vote for her running mate and the replacement VP of his choice, because Palin will flake out sometime in the first 28 months of the term.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

she would have to debate him. Live. She cannot make it through that; she's not that good.

said it before, i'll say it again

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

sarah palin is a chinese room.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

Well as always, ^this^ is the true test.

As I replied to enders_shadow, the post isn't supposed to be about wether or not she's fit for the job, the question is can someone her position win an election? I'm inclined to say that it is possible but highly improbable.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

I'll agree with that. Obama is no John Kerry.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

your math doesn't work. even if she gets all the:

"23.9%, [who] said that they believe little or none of reporting"

she'd have to swing another 25%

and it's not just one media outlet that says Palin is batty. its many. and the infighting would doom her. too many republicans are willing to badmouth her. she'd never stand a chance. /fin

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

"23.9%, [who] said that they believe little or none of reporting"

she'd have to swing another 25%

No she doesn't, she just has to make that 23.9% bigger. If 19.6% believe everything they hear and 23.9% disbelieve everything they hear that gives Palin, or any other fringe candidate, 56.5% of the population who are (in theory) persuadable.

it's not just one media outlet that says Palin is batty. its many. and the infighting would doom her. too many republicans are willing to badmouth her.

Well yes, that's the point. The OP was not about whether she's a viable candidate, the OP was about; how does one overcome the above issue and is it even possibible to do so?

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

no, she cannot overcome her obstacles to becoming Prez, or even Repub candidate
the media is bad but not 100% fictitious, videos speak for themselves

that paul revere episode she had? c'mon, that's plain as day for all to see--no spin; even Fox called her on it.