Martyrs and heroes: what next with Al Qaeda?

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

Ok, so I am going to stick my neck out and say that there ain't no Tooth Fairy, no little green men on Mars and that Osama bin Laden is actually dead.

Yes, I know that the CIA can do wunnerful things with CGI and video tapes and whatever these days, but I still think that those Septics across the pond are telling us the truth when they say they put a man on the Moon and that they just took out bin Laden.

So, what next? Is Al Qaeda goin to implode without its leader, or will legions of volunteers be stepping forward to conduct suicide missions to avenge him?

You know, if we look at history, we can see examples of both outcomes.
The English invade France, and a legend comes to life in Joan of Arc. The nation looks to her to liberate them from the oppressor - but she is captured, and killed... and yet the english still get booted out of France when the french get it that longbows do not make an army invincible.

And of course, Christianity immediately collapsed when Jesus of Nazereth was put to death by the Romans - no, wait...

But let's look at more recent history, shall we to see where Al Qaeda is going next.
Since '9/11', we have seen A.Q strike at London many times - and each time, the impact was less and the perpetrators more amatuerish than the previous bunch.
51 dead the first time, and a complete failure to kill anyone the next. The detonators failed and the main charge did not explode. Then some guy tried to set off a bomb near Piccadilly and couldn't get a good, quiet parking spot for the car bomb. Hey, welcome to London, dude!

A pattern emerges - at first, the terrorists hit us with top class sleepers, but these days, they have to make do with losers who can't fix a bomb to go off properly, and losers who seriously think that a car can be parked anywhere near Piccadilly any time,and nobody is going to blow the whistle on it.

It is no good inspiring people to rise up if you only inspire muppets and losers like that kid who tried to set light to his shoes. the real action in the Arab world is not the demand for Fundamental Wahabbism , or the New Caliphate, it's a dmand to have free elections like us in the West. It's about Democracy and politics, not religion.

Ok, bin Laden hid and stayed low, not even putting out any recent videos, but he acheived little impact by inspiring the likes of Richard Reid, the shoe bomber, and although we must be vigilant, I don't see his replacements as being any more dangerous than he was. Funds are drying up and expertise is in shorter supply, and the wannabe 'martyrs' are not getting the training they used to have.

Of course, if we were smart, we would ensure that democracy gets exported and living standards rise - for these seem to be the best hope for security, not the police state and security measures. Yet even if Cameron and co do not step up to the plate, I still feel that Aq is already a busted flush. Shifting lange amounts of money and explosives around is no longer the AQ strong suit. So long as we don't get careless, we can still keep the lid on them.

Comments

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Yesterday: "Obama's death". Today: "those septics across the pond" LOL! I'm livin' it. Oh! Did I say livin'? I meant lovin' it! :c)

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

Hi- I wasn't expecting anyone from elsewhere to be so up on Cockney rhyming slang - so where did you learn about it, may I ask?I also wonder about how it looks to you, being a different generation to me, being in Africa and not europe, and all that. care to share your thoughts?

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Maybe personal LJ's would be more appropriate for that? Add me and you'll know. :)

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

In before someone says "but, but, didn't we talk about that ALREADY!?" :p

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Did we? I don't remember...
(I thought we were talking about *gasp* abortion.)

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Nooo not abortion!

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

Tried to get in and say "no" - didn't beat the clock :)

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Rachel Maddow had a great interview with an AJE journalist about all this.

Hopefully you can see this and it's not blocked. It will not embed properly ;) (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#42869554)

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

getting it now - thanks for the link !

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Sure thing!

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Erm that's not how the ending of the Hundred Year's War worked. The problem for the English was they were able to win battles and occupy cities but never the countryside and that maintaining occupation forces for what they'd won was a financial disaster waiting to happen. The French won the war the same way Vo Nyguen Giap won the Second Indochina War.

Another wrinkle with things is that movements like Al-Qaeda hate the dictators in the region because dictatorships *are* good at suppressing guys like them. Democracies as a rule are not because what's required for civil rule of law sometimes is not what is required for a safe and secure society.

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

So, are you saying that leaders who die for causes shouldn't , or what?

Is Bin laden still good for the brand now he is dead, or never any good at all?

Me, I think that great causes attract great people. Joan of Arc tapped into the french psyche and unleashed something waiting to happen. Bin laden merely into a general sort of resentment that can find better means of expression and probably will mean that the Arab world will become more secular and pluralised in its approach to politics - at least I hope so.

How many people across Egypt and Libya were waving placards and posters of bin Laden ? did they even appeal to Osama for aid - no - they asked the West, and we answered. i hope this will be the start of something good.

[yes-justice.livejournal.com]

And of course, Christianity immediately collapsed when Jesus of Nazereth was put to death by the Romans - no, wait...

Whoa! Careful, analogies are dealt with harshly round these parts.


Al-Qiada will dissolve from confusion and infighting.

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

Not this one, it's satire week :D

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

Christianity did collapse. Luckily (or not), Paul was able to take over martyrdom of Jesus for the promotion of Paulism. Even then it was pretty touch and go until Constantine.

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

Ten years ago it was necessary to do a full invasion of a country, flattening it along the way, in order to get this guy. Now, apparently, it's OK to send in special forces to an unoccupied sovereign nation.

My question; why not just do this in the first place? Why the 2 wars, millions of refugees, hundreds of thousands dead and trillions of dollars essentially burnt? Not to mention the barbarism being displayed by the US populace at the moment. It's sickening.

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

Well, going to war against Afghanistan was about the Taliban.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

It was about depriving Al-Qaeda of a base when the Taliban were hosts not just to OBL but to the movement's leadership and training grounds. The actual fighting in 2001 was US Special Forces and air power aiding the Northern Alliance in breaking Taliban lines in a sequence of offensives starting with a victory at Mazir-i-sharif.

If the USA had *not* gone in that civil war would still be ongoing right now.

[whoasksfinds.livejournal.com]

because capturing bin laden was not the only mission.

Not to mention the barbarism being displayed by the US populace at the moment. It's sickening.

lol dude. anyone not happy about the death of a man who orchestrated attacks on countless civilians around the globe, and inspired and encouraged others to do the same, is sick themselves.

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

Not quite that easy (perhaps we could have gotten him once early on (Bora Bora was it?) However, in order to do a special op like this requires exact knowledge. Pakistan would have been rather upset (altho who really cares :/) if we would have swent drones to all the compounds he may have been in.

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

All Q soldiers will unleash their seekrit weapon. They will all combine to form a giant al Q warrior that will wade across the Atlantic with a nuclear weapon strapped to their giant chest.

Or not. They will hopefully be demoralized. They've already been pretty beat down by financial warfare against their funding and losing troops in actual warfare, I don't think they're going to do some sort of big resurgence. They won't go away, but I think they're waning.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

I just don't have an informed enough opinion on any of the myriad possibilities for what happens next in international terrorism, the Arab Spring or President Obama's national security credentials...but I do think we should all be immensely thankful that killing bin Laden has apparently short circuited the truther posts that were popping up like toxic mushrooms after a Fall rain.

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

Truther posters? We don't see 'em in our neck o' the woods.

Truthers - they are not the same as 'birthers' are they ?

[root-fu.livejournal.com]

Al Qaeda needs to change its business model or it won't survive. There's no profit in a lifestyle alternating between massacreing random people and hiding in caves.

[mintogrubb.livejournal.com]

There is if a Saudi billionaire decides to pay you to do that.

I guess they now need another Saudi billionaire.
We can also make life harder for them if we close down tax havens that such people can use to launder and hide money in.

Personally, I don't have a problem with this, not being a billionaire myself...