Any lessons from Domodedovo?

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Zdravstvuite, tovarishchi! Hi, comrades! I'm not surprised yesterday's event in Moscow went widely unnoticed in the Anglophone media- and blogosphere, and yet it's a fact: one of the deadliest terror acts for the last years has happened at the Domodedovo airport. A man of Northern Caucasian origin blew himself up in the middle of the crowd in the waiting room, killing over 30 people and injuring 150. The act is part of an endless string of terror attacks in Russia for the last years.

The first question is of course who organized it and why? Making conclusions and allegations at this point would be too premature because modern terrorism has many faces and sources, but surely the info we've got at the moment could lead us to some preliminary thoughts.

First, what is that bomb capable of? Well, it happened in the waiting room where the relatives and friends of the arriving passengers were waiting for them to check out and take their luggage after passing the customs control. The bomb was blown up by a suicide terrorist, who, according to witnesses, screamed "I'll kill you all!" a few seconds before pulling the trigger. The power of the bomb (between 3 and 7 kg of TNT) was enhanced with additional ironware and various heavy stuff locked in a suitcase that the terrorist was carrying, and which flew everywhere and cut people's arms, legs and heads. Actually the terrorist's head was found rolling in the wreckage and he was recognized as "Caucasian looking". No surprise there. It was later specified that the bomb had 5 kg TNT, and that's quite a lot. It's similar to the anti-tank missiles which can penetrate armored vehicles.

The effect from the blast could have been even more horrific. Let's remember that a bomb worth 4 kg TNT was blown up in the Moscow subway in 2004, killing 41 people and injuring 250. This time the effect the terrorists were aiming for didn't work up so "well" as they were hoping, mostly because of the specifics of the room. Also we should mention that it's not necessary that they used TNT, there are actually even more powerful substances producing far more energy from a more compact quantity.

Some media mentioned a second blast but that wasn't confirmed.

But the point is, who ordered the attack and why? That's the main thing. Well, we might still not have a 100% certain answer, although a number of media already tried to dumb down the issue, instantly naming a culprit. I cringed as I watched some of the Russian channels, they were so ready with a conclusion already! I was especially gutted by a talk-show of theirs, where people scored points (literally), jumping over each other with accusations, each next one more generalizing and preposterous than the other.

Whatever they might blabber, the fact is that only people from the special security services (FSB) could speak of any clear evidence. If the hints that the FSB had caught a track of this particular terrorist group a week ago, but then failed to foil the attack turn out to be true, this means there's a major breach of security. In fact there's no system of "levels of threat" in Russia like there are in the US and UK, and the security level around New Year's holidays was only generally raised a bit as it's always done at that time of the year. But then, because nothing happened around and after the holidays (the Russian Christmas is on January 7th), it was brought down again and this is when the terrorists hit.

The main suspect is the already well-known terrorist organization Imarat Kavkaz, whose leader Dok Umarov took responsibility for the Moscow subway attack last year. Another possibility that couldn't be discounted is that this time it was a fringe group of fanatics ("Shahids", as they're called in Russia) who work on their own. Such groups could be a much more difficult target to deal with because they remain largely invisible until the very moment of their attack. Also they often use women kamikazes ("shahidki").

But one thing is certain. Being at a constant state of war against Islamist and Caucasian terrorism, constantly clashing with radical groups sponsored from the Middle East, Russia is surely under an immense terrorist threat, much more than most other leading countries in the world. Having in mind the huge number of candidates to destroy the otherwise rather fragile peace in Northern Caucasus, and the fact most of these terrorists never get caught, I could say the situation's deterioration is anything but unexpected.

This is putting a huge dent on Russia's credibility now in a very delicate moment for them, when they're about to host the Sochi Olympics in 2014 and the FIFA World Cup in 2018, and even for Medvedev's plans to try to persuade more foreign investors to come to Russia (he was actually heading to Switzerland for the annual Davos meeting, but he had to interrupt his plans).

We could only guess who the possible perpetrators of the terorr act are at this point; but we could point out that using suicide bombers has become a trademark for the radical pseudo-Islamic groups in the region. This method is widely used against Israel too. But who's to blame, really?

Most often the answer is: "the enemy!" (whoever it is), but when you dig a little deeper, it's not so simple. The airport authorities and the special services of Russia bear the main responsibility for this failure, when looked superficially. Medvedev hinted that he suspects the national security laws are not being put to practice as they should. I haven't been to Domodedovo, I've been in Sheremetyevo, the other major airport of Moscow, and I have no reasons to believe the situation was much different there - and I can tell you one could freely enter the airport from the street, carry a handbag right to the customs desks and leave it there whenever they wanted. And then mix with the crowd.

On the other hand, the ultra-paranoid security measures often lead to nothing productive, because they tend to wear out people's vigilance (remember The Boy Who Cried Wolf story). They traumatise society and people get overly paranoid, irritable, and ineffective in their reactions. Especially when it's done for too long periods.

Unfortunately, other countries' experience could turn out useless in many cases. Like Israel's example of separating itself from the Palestinian territories with a wall. To build a wall along the Russian Federation / Northern Caucasus borders is impossible. And separating these regions, which some allege is the most viable solution, is definitely not an option. Chechnya's de facto sovereignty during the 1996-99 period did in no way increase the citizens' security, nor that of Russia as a whole, and it only made things worse for the neighboring territories. And finally, we should understand that many leaders of terrorist organizations would rejoyce immensely from such an outcome.

So what should be done, really? First and foremost it's important to understand that no increase of security measures and no expansion of prerogatives for the Russian special anti-terror services would provide lasting results. That's only dealing with the symptoms, not the causes. As was said, the terrorists just have a too wide range of targets. Besides, by gradually bringing down the internal threats, it doesn't mean you're bringing down the external threats, because a number of foreign sponsors of terrorism would hardly stay restful when they see that their influence is being curbed.

The success of the fight against these terrorist attacks would depend on several complex factors, and Putin and Medvedev know this perfectly well but for some reason they refuse to face it and to do something about it:

- Economical - developing the economy of Russia and especially Northern Caucasus because those parts are extremely poor, while they're bathing in resources, or have a strategic location for transporting those resources, which could be used properly, this time bringing some actual benefit for the local economies themselves, instead of being totally sucked out by the imperial federal center.

- Political and administrative - no development is ever possible in the conditions of a widespread corruption and dismal professional qualification of the bureaucratic machinery who are supposedly responsible for said development. Imposing deadlines for doing a certain amount of work does not... eh, work. At all. You can't make someone who doesn't have the capacity and expertise to do something, to do it, no matter what deadlines you give them.

For the time being, the threat of terror acts is a fact that remains. What's left is to hope that this won't be the start of a series of such acts (most of us still remember Beslan), and that the Russian authorities would finally drag their heads out of the sand and start addressing these issues because I'm not sure how much longer the Russian people would stand this. And we know what happens when someone pushes the Russians to do something stupid.

Extra credit to luvdovz for turning out prophetic - sadly, the result wasn't joyous.

Comments

[mijopo.livejournal.com]

Thanks, appreciate your informative posts, usually learn something.

A couple of quibbles, I think that someone from Northern Caucasus is called Caucasusian, not Caucasian. Also, I'm not sure who're you're referring to with "Anglophone media- and blogosphere" but there was, IMO, a helluva lot of coverage of this event in my part of the world yesterday.

[mijopo.livejournal.com]

wait, google is suggesting that 'caucasian' is perfectly appropriate. What do I know, I learned even more.

[mijopo.livejournal.com]

In fact, that's where 'Caucasian' traces too, fuck, I'm a moron. I walk away in shame.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Yeah but I'm a bigger moron (but don't ask for citations).

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Intentional hyperbole on my part, used as a rhetorical trick to wake up the audience (i.e. the subtlest form of trolling). Apologies, my opening line should never be taken seriously.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

I still dont know what to say. I could've been there (http://abomvubuso.livejournal.com/567608.html). You too, obviously.

Right now i want to smash something.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Did that already. Damn i'm missing rugby.

OK then, seriously...

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Well, only most of the time. I could've said that, if we assume the Putin-Medvedev tandem is doing "well" (in their own way) with the task of re-defining Russia's foreign policies (the Re-Charge initiative with the US which remains largely on paper and in words, the START program which they've been delaying, etc), and with defending their country's geopolitical interests (mainly finding energy routes and end consumers for their resources, which many argue has become Russia's main tool for conducting international politics rather than threatening people with multi-million standing armies, tanks and fighter jets from the Cold War [which they still do occasionally, like in Georgia]), and also in dealing with their political opponents at home (be it through eliminating various inconvenient oligarchs and installing their own buddies in their place, or putting a heavy boot on any attempt for the creation of a vibrant political opposition and/or pluralism in the country) -- then they still have failed badly in regards to the North Caucasian problem (if its proven that it was a North Caucasian terrorist who did that... mass murder).

It would also mean that both wars in Chechnya had failed to achieve their goals, including a lasting peace. Therefore the Russian government(s) which were in power at the time and the one which is in place now, have also failed terribly in this very crucial aspect of their work.

Re: OK then, seriously...

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Surely, the attacks have slowed down compared to previous years. Mainly because there used to be an attack every month back in those times. But thats just a drop in the manifestation of the symptoms. They won't go away unless the root cause is addressed, and chances are there'll be a resurgence if external factors get involved.

I'm not much more familiar with the Caucasian issues than you are, i'm more focused on Central Asia, China, partly Russia, and lately, Brazil. I could recommend some good reads but i'm afraid most of them are in Russian and i dont seem to be able to find proper translations. Besides, Russians writing about Caucasus... well you know what i mean.

And still more,

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

If i try to return back to my rational thinking (as much as that could be possible right now), my "thoughtful-and-sensitive" opinion would be that using force is a method that only works to a certain point, and to a certain extent. After that point, the economic reform becomes of primary importance, in Russia's case the federal programs for reconstruction of the damaged provinces, and restoring health care and social security to some satisfactory level. It'd cost much less than maintaining peace through forceful means as all these factors would improve the living standard of all those people living in territories succumbing to terrorism and Islamofundamentalist populism every now and then. If Russia doesnt provide prosperity, then the various Islamist sponsors from the Mideast will promise to do it, but they'll have some conditions in return.

These are lands that have experienced war of various intensity ever since there have been people out there. In a way they've grown up for generations with the notion that warfare is part of their way of life, very similarly to the Pushtuns. These things would take not just "a lot of time", it'd take GENERATIONS to uproot, and it takes long-term efforts in that direction, and just a tiny glitch in that is enough to scrap the whole effort. It takes a lot of education and inbreeding a spirit of patriotism, yes, but also a mentality thats as divorced from the premise that the biggest problems can be solved best with cold steel and bullets, as possible. If all that is done by the Russian Federation, the Chechen and Dagestani and Ingushetian and Ossetian and Kalmyk and all other peoples around Caucasus will, in several GENERATIONS, grow new kinda mentality and heal their wounds that have been dug there for centuries, and then and only then will they be able to call themselves brothers. Now they're just a collection of miserable, confused, desperate, used people.

A nice example to emulate in that respect would be Ulster. It took them generations to reconcile (kinda!) their deep divisions, and its still in the works, but that's the right way of doing it, not the Russian way.

Once more i want to express my deepest condolences to all those who've lost a friend or relative in the carnage, and may all those innocent victims rest in peace ;(

Now i really need to go do some running.....

Re: And still more,

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

"If Russia doesnt provide prosperity, then the various Islamist sponsors from the Mideast will promise to do it, but they'll have some conditions in return."

This reminds me of a line I often hear: "They should let these republics secede and everything will be all right."

No it won't be all right. What makes people who say this seriously believe that those who are pushing Northern Caucasus into the realm of a Caliphate ("Imarat Kavkaz" means exactly this: Caucasian Caliphate), would stop just there? No they won't stop. They'll want more pieces of Russia. If Russia makes even one step back, they'll sense weakness and they'll push more. And even I, as someone who disapproves of most of Russia's policies, would say that's the last thing anyone in the world wants, save for some very extremist elements in the Middle East.

Re: And still more,

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

See, the problem with this is that the Russians have been the aggressors almost the entirety of this sequence of wars since Tsar Alexander II conquered the Caucasus from Imam Shamil in the first place. To actually resolve this and undercut the Islamists at the same time thus requires with every passing decade a statesman of ever-more-unrealistic levels of skill.

Stalin doing the little thing of expelling the entire people from land that ethnic Russians quickly gobbled up after the Second World War was over and their not returning until the 1960s only made the situation go from bad to clusterfuck.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Nah, go ahead it's useful spam as I didn't know all those things (and I would've been either a nerd or in the military if I did).

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

My experience was with the M48, M60 and M551. Do the latest tanks have a spall liner inside?

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

went widely unnoticed in the Anglophone media- and blogosphere

I think that is manifestly untrue. I first heard about it on MSNBC a little after 9 AM and the reporting of it went on through the day yesterday. I've read pretty extensive reporting and commentary at National Review.com, Jawa Report, Reason.com, Instapundit and Ace of Spades.

As for who is responsible, well I dare say I'd be looking at the same group of ruthless terrorists who blew up all of those apartment buildings in 1999, precipitating the Second Chechen War. Oh, wait...

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Read my response to mijopo.

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

You're a big moron, yeah, I get that...

;P

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Bingo! We haz a winrar.

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

On the other hand, the ultra-paranoid security measures often lead to nothing productive, because they tend to wear out people's vigilance (remember The Boy Who Cried Wolf story). They traumatise society and people get overly paranoid, irritable, and ineffective in their reactions. Especially when it's done for too long periods.

THIS.

[anadinboy.livejournal.com]

there was a report on the bbc today saying how several newspapers havnt bothered putting it on their front page.

[anadinboy.livejournal.com]

http://www.pwmo.org/Illegals/illegals-russian-federation.htm

take a look at all those claims on russia and you can see why russia feels it has to hold on to territory!

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Ah, post marks. :)

Tuva used to be a legitimate separate entity, btw. For a time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuvan_People%27s_Republic

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

I'm surprised we weren't swamped by dozens of pissed-off Russian nationalists with weird conspiracy theories.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

They're still too busy on their Russian communities (http://community.livejournal.com/ru_politics/). They'll drop by any time, don't worry.

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

I suppose they need some time to get their stories straight.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Of course there are already those who'll blame it all on CIA (http://community.livejournal.com/geopolitics/65176.html).

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

The CIA isn't nearly competant enough, clearly it was Mossad DA JEWZ!!!!

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

AH DAT JUICE!

[terminator44.livejournal.com]

This is sounding more and more like Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

I prefer Red Alert.

[terminator44.livejournal.com]

I still have Red Alert 2. Very fun. World of Conflict too.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Unfortunately to actually resolve the issue in Chechnya would require a leader who's both an able statesman actually invested in resolving it, and the ability of this person to ensure the Chechens see that this is good faith and not a precursor to another Second Chechnyan War-level horror. That's rare across the planet and virtually non-existent in the current Russian Federation's leadership. And it is the only ultimate solution to any version of terrorism as Putin's already tried the blunt-axe and it's quite obviously failed.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Every bad situation finds its great leader, sooner or later. I heard this being said elsewhere, don't remember where exactly.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

And I disagree with that. My own country offers at least three examples of where that was not in fact the case. And unfortunately in the context of Russian Federation politics yielding anything to the Chechens at least right now would be political suicide.

[debergerac.livejournal.com]

they say that in north korea...

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

I'm not surprised yesterday's event in Moscow went widely unnoticed in the Anglophone media- and blogosphere

I would dispute this. I saw a lot of stuff about it.

As for the content, I don't have anything to say about it.

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

Thank you for this. I had heard about the incident, but mostly just that it had happened, but I tend to wrap myself in local stuff. It really makes a difference when people I know (if only from the internet)report on things.
It really makes it real (and I tend to be an isolationist any way, and somewhat sadly, more narrow all the time)