Let's Discuss the Upcoming Midterms

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

With most of the primaries out of the way (although Massachusetts is still waiting, as is New Hampshire and a handful of others), how does everyone see this election shaking out? How invested are you in the results, either as an American or as an overseas observer? If you're local, are you volunteering at all to help any candidates? What do you think represents the most important race or races in the current cycle?

Also, this should be interesting:

[Poll #1611420]

Comments

[blueduck37.livejournal.com]

My prediction... the Republicans will gain MANY seats in the House-- around 40-ish-- but not enough to take control. In the Senate, they will gain around 4 or 5 seats, again not enough to take control.

They are more likely to gain control of the House than the Senate, of course, given the # of their Senate candidates who are obviously insane. I'm not being silly there, by the way. Nominating batshit loonies like Ms. Angle will cost them what otherwise would've been solid pickups.

I am a Democrat and will vote, as pointless as it is, as Anthony Weiner doesn't exactly need my help getting reelected.

I am incredibly invested in hoping to minimize Democratic losses. Not that the party's record is without flaw, but the fact that electorate is set to reward the GOP this fall despite a) their open lack of any kind of substantive, forward-thinking agenda; and b) the John Birch-ification of the party since Obama became President.

[kinvore.livejournal.com]

Not to mention if they regain either house they will probably try to trump up frivolous investigations against Obama the way they did against Clinton.

[eracerhead.livejournal.com]

There is an alleged anti-incumbent mood in the country that gets hyped up in the press. The numbers show the opposite, so I don't expect much change. Aligning with the teabaggers or Palin seems to be the kiss of death. Becks million moron march in Washington this month will also help the Democrats. So while we should expect big Republican wins in the off-cycle election they will likely only gain a few seats. This will be hyped as a big Republican win whereas it is actually a loss.

Prediction: Republicans will gain 10-12 seats in the house, a big loss, and will gain 0-9 seats in the senate, about average.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

He he, million moron march.

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

I actually don't know if the TEA party is going to help or hurt the GOP on balance. It certainly has energized a segment of the base, which will help. It has also pushed the average candidate in more of a social conservative direction which won't be helpful in the general election.

If these candidates can move towards the middle, the movement will probably help on balance.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

Maddow had a nice lil segment on the anti-incumbent nonsense that's been going on.

317 incumbents won their primaries
7 did not

(well, those were the numbers as of her airing when I saw this, I believe this was before the McCain primary, so it might now be

318 / 8 As McCain won his primary but the Alaskan primary went to the newbie.
Even so, anti-incumbent my ass.

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

Too far out to say.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

When do you think is not too far out?

[rogerdr.livejournal.com]

No hand over in either house. The GOP will be lucky to have a net win at all.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

How do you figure?

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Larry Sabato's prediction as of now:

Senate 2010
+ 7 GOP

House 2010
+ 32 GOP


Governor 2010
+ 6-7 GOP

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Psst (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010090201/).

I know your comment is a week old, but I thought of you immediately and didn't want to start a diversion in the Lonborg thread.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

no net change, which isn't an option you really gave.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

See those options with the zeroes? Yeah.

How do you figure?

[chron-job.livejournal.com]

I predict the typical mid-term swing against the party holding the presidency, but not enough to loose 'control' of the Senate or the House.

I use irony quotes around the word 'control' because with the current strategic commitment to obstruction and lock-step voting by the out-party, slim majorities might as well be even splits.

Moderate and expected Republican gains at the midterm will be touted as an inspired public mandate, and such obstruction will increase to new levels. I expect a record breaking ratio of calls for cloture. I hedge my bets by saying 'ratio', because I think that the total mass of legislation will be less. Lacking a national disaster, no legislation of significance will get passed in the next 2 years that isn't hopelessly compromised.

[kinvore.livejournal.com]

It's a bit early to tell but I gave it my best guess. The GOP will more than likely make at least modest gains.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

While I care about the national level, right now, my energy is working on the state level.
Stupid fucking DINO shat all over our state senate.

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

Gain for the Republicans probably. The country is still split though; and I don't see that many independents seeing the "No" Party as offering much beyond "let's try doing NOTHING to fix the economy" - not exactly a crowd pleasing platform.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

but that's exactly what some folk want

especially if they listen to FOX who's been pushing propoganda about just how ebil de dems be

[hey-its-michael.livejournal.com]

I think it is still early, but based on the mood in the country and what the polling seems to indicate, I am guessing that the GOP will pick up around seven Senate seats and somewhere between 20 and 30 House seats. Of course, this may change one way or another just weeks before the election.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

I voted something just to be able to see the results without clicking too much. Unfortunately I didn't see a "Don't know / Don't care" option.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

I can understand don't know, but you might want to care--if enough dumb-shit jackasses (read as: republicans) make it to the senate, we'll wind up going to war with your country by mistake.

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

if you click on "Poll #1611420" you can have the option to view results and don't have to vote.

[ghoststrider.livejournal.com]

I keep hearing that the Republicans are going to get a shit-ton of seats in the House (I've heard predictions as high as ~75, and even at one point Nate Silver was talking 60+ seats (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/generic-ballot-points-toward-possible.html)) but I'm not sure. I'm reasonably confident they'll take back the House, but that could be with either a slim majority or a well-padded one. As for the Senate, Nate Silver thinks the Dems will lose 6-7 seats (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/), but I'm not so sure. Several Democratic Senators up for reelection are pretty solid (especially in my state) and I really doubt the Republicans are going to take the Senate.

To be honest, though, I don't necessarily want the Republicans to win. Well, I do, sort of; I want them to win so they can kick the Democrats out of power, maybe reverse some of their policies, and then show the pissed off voters that they suck too so we can have a Jacksonian moment (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/12/democrats_risk_another_jackson_1.html) and shake things up a bit. We're at that stage in American history where the party system breaks down and a new one begins, I think. I can't give you any scientific evidence towards that, it's more of a gut feeling (yes, TRUTHINESS!) and I could certainly be wrong.

I guess I feel "invested" because we're really being handed a choice between a turd and a turd sandwich. (And don't give me that wasted vote garbage; 99% of all elections, voting for one of the major party candidates is a wasted vote, since a vote for a third party candidate will help them past electoral hurdles and the major players practically have their votes anyways.) Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans (especially the latest bunch) are good for the country. The only place where I'm actively considering voting for a major party is in my home Congressional race, where I would very much like to vote the incumbent out. But otherwise, I'm voting third party all the way. Libertarian, most likely, but also the Greens (probably for state Attorney General, spread the love around.) But I simply cannot stomach a party that is promoting idiots like Angle, Bachmann, and Palin and ignoring Ryan, Paul, and Schiff, nor is completely ignoring the fact they have to actually create a plan, rather than just saying "no" all the time. Oh, and that culture war shit? Yeah, I'm getting pretty tired of that. And the wars, and the police state policies, and the corporate and agricultural subsidies, and the...

The only race I wish to point out is the Reid/Angle race, because if any race in the county exemplifies the "turd/turd sandwich" dichotomy, it is that one, plain and simple.

[mylaptopisevil.livejournal.com]

Here's something I [personally] find more interesting that comes from those numbers.

If the GOP doesn't gain strong majorities, let alone majorities, does that mean there isn't a mandate to go back toward Republican/Conservative values/ideals/mindsets/etc?