I have seen the future, and I doesn't like it.

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

Life after the oil crash.
Ok, last time, I went and pinned it on a vid that most people cannot read at work.
So I am letting y'all boot up something you can read quitely when you oght to be working :)

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

In case you have trouble reading graphs, this one has a Blue Peter style 'talk you through the implications' - complete with original sources, for those who wanna check.

It might seem like I am doom mongering , but I just want to say -
Let's put more into Planned Parenthood, make it optional, but make it a damned sight easier at home and abroad.

Let's have oil rationing, sooner rather than later. Let's also have everything rationed if it's made with oil.

let's try to be civilised about the few resources left and share them out among ourselves.

Let's start reducing consumption , reusing things and recycling more.

let's remember that civilisation as we know it will be over by 2050, if it lasts that long.

Comments

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Neither would I. At least not teh Eevull sort of spammer.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

OK.

Got anything to say on oil rationing?

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Of course.

...trying to overcome the disturbing tickling at my back on hearing the term 'rationing'...

So what if we rationed each year's oil production evenly to all nations, on a per capita basis, so each person got the same amount of oil?

Oil production/day = 80 million barrels
Oil production/year = 29.2 billion barrels
Oil production/year/capita = 29.2/6.4 = 4.5 barrels/year/capita

Looking at this chart (http://www.oilcrisis.com/nations/percapita.htm), we see that 4.5 barrels/year/capita would put everybody at a level right between Cuba and South Africa. Each person would receive roughly two quarts of crude oil per day.

Naturally, the oil hog US is at the top of the list, using about 26 barrels/year/capita, or about 3 gallons of crude oil per day per person. So if you're using more than 3 gallons of gasoline a day, you're really out of control!

4.5 barrels/year/capita still isn't that bad. The countries at the bottom of the list appear to be: Afghanistan at 0.08, and Uganda at 0.11.

Aghanistan is incredible. Each Afghani is getting by with about 2 tablespoons of crude oil per day. It's doled out in cough syrup quantities. They're already deep into post peak oil conditions. They're not experiencing a die-off, however, and agriculture is booming:

Opium production in Afghanistan has doubled every year since 2001 and is expected to continue this exponential increase over at least the next two years. (http://www.newsroom.ucla.edu/page.asp?RelNum=6374)

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Much better. The only curious thing being that you equate poppies to agriculture.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

It grows on the land, needs water, picking, etc. So yeah, agriculture. Sure, you don't eat it, but you don't eat cotton either. And you sell it for money, which you buy other things with (like AK47's). So yeah.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Yes, a good point. It may not be food or a useful material but it's still a kind of agriculture I guess.

I'm just glad you switched from addressing the messenger to addressing the message.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Always at your services.

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

Yeah - poppies are grown . now, maybe they are grown for drug abuse, and not medication , but like, how many tons of plants are being grown on a spoon full of Oil I asks?

if canadians grew wheat the same way, how much could we expect to see?
these are the questions we need to ask.
mind you, in another 30 yrs, we will prolly find out!

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

I say let's get back to the plough and oxen.

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

and that will feed everyone? or we just get back to P+O when we are down to the last 50,000 survivors?

Still that's for the young uns to worry about. I don't think I am gonna be around.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Hey, I just joked. Follow my icons.

[torpidai.livejournal.com]

I say let's get back to the plough and oxen.

Good, but you're not yet retarding the world quite enough, Me I say let's get back to having people and people alone work on the land, Don't oxen Belch Greenhouse gasses?

Hell my way could also take care of the unemployment problems :)

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Indeed, your idea is much better.

On the other hand, oxen produce natural fertilizers, so we could close the agricultural cycle.

[torpidai.livejournal.com]

On the other hand, oxen produce natural fertilizers, so we could close the agricultural cycle.

They'll also eat no-end of foods you're trying to grow, and what on earth is wrong with Humanure??? (I know, eeuugghh)

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

So if you're using more than 3 gallons of gasoline a day, you're really out of control!

Hi, my name's Joe and I'm an Oil-o-holic...
I can see how this is gonna pan out when we go down the far side of the bell curve!

"hello Joe - my name's Gerry. like most of us, I guess, my parents raised me on a diet of rich crude and cheap gas. but as I got older, I tried cutting back and using more wind and solar. Just can't my car to run on tidal power though.
I went sneaking off to the gas station just last night and just binged on neat BP. I felt so sick and ashamed- especially after what those guys did in the Gulf of Mexico...."

"Gerry, we all go through those times. just remember that you have to cut back slowly, progressively. start with little things like keeping the foot off the floor when driving..."

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Question. How do you propose to organize the rationing?

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

the same way the UK govt raioned food and clothes during WW".
did the USa have rationing during the war? maybe not - but everyone got an allocation of resources by govt boffins, nd was sent the coupons.
When you went to buy , you handed over coupons and cash in exchange for goods.

if you could, you saved up coupons and sold them to rich folks for extra cash.

Today, with lotsa poor folks having no cars , it's "Yeah , I don't use petrol myself, so you can have my couplons for 50 quid"
The guy with a ferrari gets to drive it, the guy who can't afford a car gets to eat.

I like that idea.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Coupons. What a great idea. Try to explain that to the oil-thirsty Westerner.

[johnny9fingers.livejournal.com]

Try competing with China for the remaining reserves.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Let's compete with China ... through coupons.

[torpidai.livejournal.com]

Question. How do you propose to organize the rationing?

Real easy, Governments first, mass transport second, personal (ie less than 18 seat vehicles next) This will open the flood gates wide enough to havee a nice little black-market fuel industry.

If I were you I'd start considering diesel motors now, at least with the addition of a cheap filter system one can fuel up for free from scrap oil from take-aways :)

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

~If I were you I'd start considering diesel motors now, at least with the addition of a cheap filter system one can fuel up for free from scrap oil from take-aways :)~

My Good Lady Wife and I already have... :)

[torpidai.livejournal.com]

You got a filter system? nice one, I'd love to see piccies of that :)

and 2) I'm led to believe using oil in this manner requires a quick "tweek" of the fuel management system or a slight drop in performance (10% from memory), but hell, there was a time you could buy brand new oil from wholesalers (25 gallons a time I believe) at much less than diesel costs.

I'll assume though you just mean you got a diesel motor?

[green-man-2010.livejournal.com]

this is it - we run on deisel. if things get serious , we may end up running on chip shop oil - but we bought deisel coz even I know that petrol engines can't and deisels will do that trick!

[torpidai.livejournal.com]

There's you in London with (Boris told me) one of the best transport networks in the world and you still feel the need for a car??? :o

Me, Looks like I really need to get this CNC machine up and running, then build a bigger one (First one will only be good for nylon :() but as no-one yet seems to be mass producing diesel motors for motorcycles, I guess there may well be a market in building one-off specials :) Hell If I could market them at those Harley Davidson Tractor drivers, they'd be good business, though I'd have to chrome plate everything (Well get all parts "Dipped" :) )

Actualy you're wrong with regards to the petrol cars, though it's not "Quite" as straight forward, in desperation pure oil can be used in a diesel, in a petrol motor one needs a little more refining and the addition of a catylist, but why bother? Petrol motors can get round this problem by running on gas, which is in all reality a simple chemistry procedure (Though only hacks and no real engineering thought seems to have been put into it yet) where one takes organic waste (I'm informed coffee grounds work very well) coal or timber will also suffice, heat it and the gas produced you can feed into your petrol motor :)

This all isn't "hard" to do, but the efficiency I'd question, though if one could use some of the gas to heat the "difraction(sp) tower" which in reality is all it is, and get rid of guvmint H&S rules, we could all go back to own motor repairs and run all sorts of better systems than we are presently allowed.