A tale of two radicals

[luzribeiro]

Bernie Sanders has won the Nevada caucuses, and is now leading the Dem primaries in terms of delegates who'll be ultimately choosing their nominee in November. As we know, Bernie heavily relies on grassroots support, and looks likely to achieve what he failed to do back in 2016.

Now, he may've won 47% of the vote in Nevada, but that only gives him 13 delegates because of the state's small population size. There's one more primary in February, the one in South Carolina, and the forecast is about a tight race between Sanders and Biden. That'll be Biden's last chance to prove he's still got some steam in his campaign, after the failures in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, where he was soundly defeated by both Sanders and Buttigieg.

As we've discussed here, it may not be Biden who'll be the last major challenge to Bernie's nomination (although Biden was presumed front-runner before the whole thing started), but Bloomberg, who's planning to officially join the race on Super Tuesday, March 3 (14 states voting on one day, including populous California and Texas, plus all expats). Granted, Bloomberg is now being given slightly smaller chances, especially after he failed to impress on the latest debate, where most other candidates attacked him for his wealth, his hush agreements with former female employees, his policies as NYC mayor, and of course his past as a Republican.

As for the implications of a potential Trump/Sanders standoff in the general election, this means even a more polarized US society. While Trump is being viewed as one of the most right-wing presidents in recent US history, Sanders is the first to publicly declare themselves socialist (-democrat).

In fact he has already pushed the Dems to the left with his very presence, and his consistent stance and message. Many of his positions, like universal health-care (including for illegal aliens), open immigration to the country, and higher tax rates, have moved from a fringe set of ideas into mainstream now, most of the Dem candidates embracing them as their own. Same about the Dem congressfolk and senators, who've followed suit and shifted to the left, similarly to the way the GOP overcame their identity crisis by consolidating around Trump's right-wing radicalism.

Bernie's ceaseless advance towards the nomination means the electorate will likely be faced with yet another difficult choice, many moderates being sidelined and under-represented again. The election campaign is promising to be even more extreme than in 2016, and Sanders will probably be attacked for his own wealth (Bloomberg already used that weakness of Bernie's, asking if it wasn't a bit weird that the country's most outspoken socialist has three houses). Also, some of Bernie's past statements about the Soviets are a concern, as well as his more recent positions on Cuba and Venezuela.

So far, the Dems have strictly looked for a highly electable champion of theirs, and naturally Joe Biden was presumed the most suitable in that respect. He lacks any extreme positions on most social and economic issues. Now the issue of electability around which most primary elections in the US tend to revolve, will be additionally complicated.

And the reason for this is not just Bernie, but also Trump's consolidation of support around himself. After the whole impeachment drama predictably failed, he's been enjoying record approvement levels. The latest Gallup polls show a 49% approval rating, which is much more than the meager 40-42% he used to have throughout most of his term. And let's not forget that the approval for his administration now beats the disapproval ratings.

Trump has consolidated almost the full potential of support within the GOP now, around 95%, a record level for any Republican president. If the same happens with Sanders, the next presidential battle will depend on the moderate fence-sitters more heavily than ever, and they'll again have to choose the lesser of two evils, which is definitely not a good place to be, especially after 4 highly polarizing years.