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talkpolitics
The Turkish surveillance drones are hovering over North Cyprus to watch the Israelis. The Israeli airforce is menacingly circling over the drilling ships sent from Turkey. A Turkish ship armed to the teeth drove away an Israeli exploration vessel. A new conflict is brewing in the neutral waters of the Eastern Mediterranean, and the gas resources there are at the core of it all.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50806877
The first Turkish drone, Bayraktar arrived at its permanent base in the unrecognised North Cyprus Republic. It's one of a few Turkish surveillance drones that will accompany drilling ships and other vessels around the Cypriot waters, protecting the Turkish exploration activities there.
Cyprus has issued more than one note of protest for this destabilising behavior on Turkey's part, to no effect. Israel's reaction is even more interesting. In fact just a day before the first Turkish drones arrived, a bunch of Israeli fighter jets made a spectacular fly-by over a Turkish gas drilling ship near Cyprus.
The famous blogger Babak Taghvaee who presents himself as a military expert, claims on Twitter that the Israeli jet actually attacked the Turkish ship with Delilah missiles. Neither side officially confirmed his claims. Shortly before that, the Israeli exploration ship Bat Galim was ordered out of the Cyprus economic zone by a Turkish military ship.
Furthermore, Recep Erdogan has done a move that's clearly meant to anger Israel. He hosted Hamas envoys (Israel considers Hamas a terrorist organization). Now, while the Israeli politicians are generally pragmatic people and don't usually get lured into such provocations, if these turn into concrete actions, the Turks might be facing a firmer Israeli reaction, and this could bring further escalation in the region. So Erdogan is taking a huge gamble.
Turkey's position tends to vary between claiming they're merely drilling inside their own territorial shelf, and doing it in the territorial waters of the North Cyprus Republic (which Turkey controls). Since that country is not recognized by anyone but Turkey, the issue of the legitimacy of its territorial shelf is still under dispute. As per the international law, this zone cannot be considered sovereign North Cypriot territory. Just to remind that earlier this year Greece threatened Turkey with EU sanctions for its actions. In response, Turkey rejected EU's right to define the borders in the Mediterranean. Even the US intervened, urging Turkey to quit its activities around Cyprus. No effect again.
Cyprus and Israel have reached an agreement and mapped the naval border between themselves, but since Turkey doesn't recognize Cyprus as a single country, it automatically rejects the Israeli claims as well. This is where all these threats and clashes and close encounters come from. The pattern is always the same: an exploration ship goes in, it's driven off by military ships, a drilling ship goes in, some fighter jets threaten it, a protest note follows, and then lots of angry speeches in the respective domestic legislatures.
The whole thing with these gas treasures (of whose true size no one is certain yet) actually started relatively recently. Everyone involved believes the hypothetical prize of this scramble is potentially huge. In 2012 a new gas field was discovered deep under the Mediterranean just between Greece and Cyprus, it was named Aphrodite and was estimated at 140 billion cubic meters. The Israelis also found some gas near their border with Lebanon, and another deposit named Tamar worth 300 billion m3 was found in 2013 (now being used by the US). The expectation is that the Leviathan field will be really huge, 3.4 trillion m3 of gas, plus 1.7 billion barrels of oil.
Other potential deposits are also allegedly hidden nearby. Turkey is very active in this respect, it has already coordinated its activities with Egypt, and it's also talking with Algeria. There's a complex overlap of zones and naval borders in the region, all depending on how you'd draw the maps. As for the zone of tension between Turkey and Israel, it's actually in Lebanese and Syrian waters, and is bordered by Israel's waters to the south.
Turkey wants it all. Erdogan refuses to negotiate with anybody, least of all Cyprus. He's not even bothered by the EU economic sanctions and US diplomatic pressure. Ironically, the scramble for fossils in the Eastern Mediterranean is already underway, while the real volume of these treasures is not yet clearly known.
Even without considering the latest incidents, suffice to follow Erdogan's rhetoric for the last few years. I mean his political line: he supports Hamas, he maintains a constant aggressive rhetoric against Israel, and now he has extra incentive to do so, what with the unfavorable economic situation back home, and his need for external foes, and something to expand into, to distract his public from their domestic woes. He's losing his grip in power, his domination on Turkish politics is starting to gradually slip away, he has lost Ankara and Istanbul, he's under immense diplomatic and economic pressure internationally - so he's looking for the only vent out of this, and for a last chance to score a big victory.
And he's going to fail.
(no subject)
Date: 20/12/19 09:28 (UTC)And who are the world leaders who can check Israel's and Turkey's nationalistic governments? Uncle Vlad maybe; he at least seems rational. And who can put pressure on Israel?
Oh, right.
Oh well, never mind.
(no subject)
Date: 22/12/19 00:57 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 22/12/19 00:56 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/12/19 07:55 (UTC)