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talkpoliticsMany of Trump's supporters, as well as opponents to US interventionism in general who don't pay attention to details would gladly welcome his decision for the Syrian withdrawal as a promise kept, and probably even a step towards peace. But that's the last thing that it is. Now that large parts of Syria have finally been freed of the barbaric rule of the Islamist extremists and have slowly started to return to normalcy, it seems all that horror is about to return, this time the Jihadist hordes ravaging the whole area with Turkey's blessing. NATO's Turkey, if I may add. The world is about to stay a silent witness to another bloodbath that, on top of all, will likely destroy a unique political project in Rojava. It may not be perfect, but it does try to establish values such as democracy, the supremacy of law, and civil liberties in a much more authentic way than many countries claiming to espouse them.
The moment and the circumstances in which Trump announced his decision also cast some doubt on the claim that he's merely fulfilling a campaign promise that he made a couple of years ago. Since he's been in power, the US has actually spent record budgets on "defense", and the US drones, bombings, and spec ops have murdered more civilians than before, which is a remarkable achievement, given the high "standard" that his two predecessors had set. The "awesome young people" in the US military won't really be coming back home - they'll be sent to some of the dozens of US bases in other parts of the world, including places like Africa and Asia.
Let's face it, as much as he may be bashed by his many opponents, Trump is practically maintaining the old US foreign-policy tradition of generating chaos and death in lands far abroad - including through occasional "withdrawals" that in most cases happen in the worst and most chaotic way possible, resulting in the respective administration conveniently washing its hands from any consequences of their previous actions. In fact, the achievement of a state of permanent chaos (the Divide and Rule principle) has been a feature so persistent in US foreign policy that whether it'd be viewed as total fiasco or complete success mostly depends on the point of view you'd choose. One thing remains, though: the amount of chaos and violence that it causes, whether directly or indirectly.
After they occupied Iraq for years and completely dismantled the state structures there, the US created perfect conditions for ethnic and religious conflict, and the flourishing of extremism. Al Qaeda, the supposed main target in the "War on Terror" got the opportunity to expand into areas never before accessible to it, and the Pentagon and CIA-sponsored secret prisons became a breeding ground for new monsters, including those of ISIS. When president Obama finally decided to move out of Iraq, the conditions that had been created by the US occupation finally allowed the horrific "Caliphate" to quickly spread from Aleppo to Baghdad, which again created the "need" of yet another US intervention, and the resulting leveling of a few large cities to the ground.
Probably under the pressure of all the criticism, and in an attempt to appear principled, Trump listened to his ego and announced he'd be significantly cutting the US presence in Afghanistan, too. If that really happens (although it looks a bit less likely than the Syrian withdrawal), it'll put immense pressure on all the minor allies in the so called Afghan coalition (which is held, maintained, dominated and practically sustained by the US). That whole operation for "creating statehood", though being the longest post-war operation in history, has achieved nothing constructive for all those years, and the whole structure is bound to crumble right away, under the tiniest pressure. And it'll inevitably come, once the "statehood"'s enemies sense that the pressure on them is diminishing.
Here's the thing. When you're getting out of a place you weren't supposed to enter in the first place, you should at least make sure you've put out the fires you've lit, or at least refrain from handing a bucket of oil to a renown pyromaniac. The "withdrawal" merely looks like a fake last act in a recurring theatrical play of suffering and destruction. In Syria's case, it's also a death sentence to countless innocent people, a dirty bargain in the interest of blood-thirsty butchers, and a re-inflaming of a fire that had just begun to die out. In this sense, all the Trump detractors who are concerned that he could suddenly put an end to their beloved perpetual warfare, better sleep well, because it seems for the time being that he's about to do the exact opposite.
Of course, one could argue that the Kurds would be too naive to expect that they'd get anything better in return for their sacrifices. History abounds of examples to the validity of the Kurdish proverb that the people's only true friend is the mountain. America's lack of a true political commitment to the Kurds at the international stage, the US passiveness to the Turkish invasion of Afrin, and the refusal to arm the Kurdish militias with heavy equipment are all clear signals that the proverb is sooner or later going to be proven right yet again. But it's also naive to believe that the Kurds had a significantly varied choice of action, and they could've merely switched sides, guaranteeing themselves better results depending on the outcome of the conflict. It's also naive to believe that the Russian concessions to Turkey would somehow lead to a complete and lasting Turkish exit from the American sphere of influence. Erdogan is not that stupid.
There's still a slim chance that the worst scenario could be averted. But the political realities, historical tendencies and personal character of the individuals in position of importance who are involved in all this, do not give any reasons for optimism.
The moment and the circumstances in which Trump announced his decision also cast some doubt on the claim that he's merely fulfilling a campaign promise that he made a couple of years ago. Since he's been in power, the US has actually spent record budgets on "defense", and the US drones, bombings, and spec ops have murdered more civilians than before, which is a remarkable achievement, given the high "standard" that his two predecessors had set. The "awesome young people" in the US military won't really be coming back home - they'll be sent to some of the dozens of US bases in other parts of the world, including places like Africa and Asia.
Let's face it, as much as he may be bashed by his many opponents, Trump is practically maintaining the old US foreign-policy tradition of generating chaos and death in lands far abroad - including through occasional "withdrawals" that in most cases happen in the worst and most chaotic way possible, resulting in the respective administration conveniently washing its hands from any consequences of their previous actions. In fact, the achievement of a state of permanent chaos (the Divide and Rule principle) has been a feature so persistent in US foreign policy that whether it'd be viewed as total fiasco or complete success mostly depends on the point of view you'd choose. One thing remains, though: the amount of chaos and violence that it causes, whether directly or indirectly.
After they occupied Iraq for years and completely dismantled the state structures there, the US created perfect conditions for ethnic and religious conflict, and the flourishing of extremism. Al Qaeda, the supposed main target in the "War on Terror" got the opportunity to expand into areas never before accessible to it, and the Pentagon and CIA-sponsored secret prisons became a breeding ground for new monsters, including those of ISIS. When president Obama finally decided to move out of Iraq, the conditions that had been created by the US occupation finally allowed the horrific "Caliphate" to quickly spread from Aleppo to Baghdad, which again created the "need" of yet another US intervention, and the resulting leveling of a few large cities to the ground.
Probably under the pressure of all the criticism, and in an attempt to appear principled, Trump listened to his ego and announced he'd be significantly cutting the US presence in Afghanistan, too. If that really happens (although it looks a bit less likely than the Syrian withdrawal), it'll put immense pressure on all the minor allies in the so called Afghan coalition (which is held, maintained, dominated and practically sustained by the US). That whole operation for "creating statehood", though being the longest post-war operation in history, has achieved nothing constructive for all those years, and the whole structure is bound to crumble right away, under the tiniest pressure. And it'll inevitably come, once the "statehood"'s enemies sense that the pressure on them is diminishing.
Here's the thing. When you're getting out of a place you weren't supposed to enter in the first place, you should at least make sure you've put out the fires you've lit, or at least refrain from handing a bucket of oil to a renown pyromaniac. The "withdrawal" merely looks like a fake last act in a recurring theatrical play of suffering and destruction. In Syria's case, it's also a death sentence to countless innocent people, a dirty bargain in the interest of blood-thirsty butchers, and a re-inflaming of a fire that had just begun to die out. In this sense, all the Trump detractors who are concerned that he could suddenly put an end to their beloved perpetual warfare, better sleep well, because it seems for the time being that he's about to do the exact opposite.
Of course, one could argue that the Kurds would be too naive to expect that they'd get anything better in return for their sacrifices. History abounds of examples to the validity of the Kurdish proverb that the people's only true friend is the mountain. America's lack of a true political commitment to the Kurds at the international stage, the US passiveness to the Turkish invasion of Afrin, and the refusal to arm the Kurdish militias with heavy equipment are all clear signals that the proverb is sooner or later going to be proven right yet again. But it's also naive to believe that the Kurds had a significantly varied choice of action, and they could've merely switched sides, guaranteeing themselves better results depending on the outcome of the conflict. It's also naive to believe that the Russian concessions to Turkey would somehow lead to a complete and lasting Turkish exit from the American sphere of influence. Erdogan is not that stupid.
There's still a slim chance that the worst scenario could be averted. But the political realities, historical tendencies and personal character of the individuals in position of importance who are involved in all this, do not give any reasons for optimism.
(no subject)
Date: 22/1/19 07:19 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 22/1/19 12:06 (UTC)Simply put - you can't be against US intervention if you want US intervention.
Putting qualifiers on it doesn't change anything.
But...it's a really bad guy this time. But...they really need us this time. But...we contributed to the problem, we must help fix it.
That sounds an awful lot like...us, the approach we've taken forever now (as I mentioned below, the same approach I assumed most of you had a problem with).
(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 06:36 (UTC)Couldn't you want a different sort of intervention?
Things are all black and white in your mind, aren't they?
What about you and that approach? Do YOU have a problem with it or not? It doesn't become clear from all your diatribe so far.
(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 09:36 (UTC)That has been my position, and pretty obviously so.
I had my seven year old son asking me to explain Syrian refugees yesterday. He's a bright lad and he's learned a whole lot of new words. He now knows "asymmetric" means unequal or unbalanced, as well as having no rotation, mirror, or tessellating symmetry. (He now also knows what tessellating means.)
But when it comes down to it I found it difficult to explain but I think I managed it. Henry then told me it was the sort of mess only the Avengers could fix. Then he asked me if Donald Trump was even stupider than Thanos. (It is a running gag in our house that Thanos is pretty dim and lacking in imagination; when he had the most powerful tool in the universe on his hand, the only thing he could think of doing with it was to destroy half of its inhabitants, rather than increasing resources or opening new vistas of exploration or making things better in a non-destructive way. When even a seven-year-old gets this you know there is some hope for the world.)
(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 15:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 15:45 (UTC)But we all know that isn't how this is going to end.
How we should handle it, and how we will handle it are two different things.
Can you, or anyone else here, give me any reason to think this is the time we'll get it right?
(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 16:04 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 16:14 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 16:38 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 17:23 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 06:38 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 14:40 (UTC)You seem to think that is on the way, yes? You seem to think that is a bad thing, yes?
Then why the hell would anyone want us to stay - anyone that sees the same pattern you do, anyone that has the same expectations for our intervention as you do?
(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 15:12 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 15:47 (UTC)Staying is not.
Staying and doing things different? Sounds nice - but what are the chances that happens?
(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 17:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 16:39 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 23/1/19 16:37 (UTC)And the USA's been directly involved in Iraq and this region in major combat operations since 1991 and Afghanistan a decade later, so there's the reality that US military power here *is* as much a factor as anything else. It's only our reflexive inability to put Democratic Administrations in historical contexts that lets America think the 1990s and Obama Administration weren't just as thuggish as the Bush Administrations and the Trump Administration abroad.