Turkey/America: the divorce
14/8/18 13:13![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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talkpolitics"If America turns her back on us, choosing some pastor instead, I'm sorry, but we'll have to go our own path with resolute steps. This attitude to a strategic partner is upsetting", Turkish president Erdogan recently commented about Trump's punitive tariffs, and then vowed he'd steer his country towards new allies, and away from America.
The tension has escalated exponentially, which led to economic woes to Turkey: a drastic devaluation of the national currency, skyrocketing inflation, tariffs on exports to the US. The two sides are on a direct collision course on an array of issues: from the case with Gulen, and the US pastor who was arrested and charged with terrorism, to the competing interests in Syria, to the Turkish plans to buy Russian defense systems.
The tension could be defused from now on, but we're past the point where we could pretend any longer that the goals of the two governments are the same. There are two ways to stop the diplomatic crisis: a compromise that preserves the relations as much as possible, or a full divorce that would have huge consequences for both the Turkish economy and the US strategic interests in the region. In both cases, there's no way back to how things used to be.
Because of the scandal with the US pastor, Trump's administration has imposed sanctions on two Turkish ministers. In turn, Erdogan has threatened retaliatory measures, and he even got the support of much of what has survived of the opposition. As a whole, the fallout is caused by years of building tensions despite the demonstrated partnership. Turkey used to be a staunch US ally, but this has changed since Erdogan embarked on his authoritarian project. You know all the elements of this drama: deteriorating human rights, a partnership with Russia in Syria, etc. Turkey's plans to purchase Russian missiles (which NATO says are incompatible with the allied systems), is not helping much, either.
Also, Erdogan will never forgive his partners for failing to support him in the hours after the failed coup against him in 2016. He's also angry with the US support for the Kurds fighting ISIL in Syria. Another point of contention is the US reluctance to extradite Gullen, whom Erdogan blames for the coup attempt. Trump's decision to exit the Iran nuke deal is also a problem for Turkey: almost half of their oil imports come from Iran, and renewed sanctions against Tehran means a huge blow on the Turkish economy.
The US cannot afford to stall any longer. The recent elections in Turkey may've strengthened Erdogan, but he didn't actually win by a landslide like Putin did in Russia. Turkey is politically divided, and the more Erdogan is ruling through force, the more vulnerable he'll get, especially if the economy is getting worse, adding extra weight to the equation.
Of course, a diplomatic solution is preferable to continuous escalation. The US-Turkish partnership remains of strategic importance. Without Turkey, a US-led world order based on the rule of law would be hard to achieve and maintain, and the Middle East could hardly be kept away from chaos. There are no other predominantly Muslim countries that could serve as a bridge between the West and the Middle East, or achieve the democratic standards that the Turks have long been used to. But the US may have to settle for relations that are less loyal than they used to be, less allied, and more based on business-style deals.
The tension has escalated exponentially, which led to economic woes to Turkey: a drastic devaluation of the national currency, skyrocketing inflation, tariffs on exports to the US. The two sides are on a direct collision course on an array of issues: from the case with Gulen, and the US pastor who was arrested and charged with terrorism, to the competing interests in Syria, to the Turkish plans to buy Russian defense systems.
The tension could be defused from now on, but we're past the point where we could pretend any longer that the goals of the two governments are the same. There are two ways to stop the diplomatic crisis: a compromise that preserves the relations as much as possible, or a full divorce that would have huge consequences for both the Turkish economy and the US strategic interests in the region. In both cases, there's no way back to how things used to be.
Because of the scandal with the US pastor, Trump's administration has imposed sanctions on two Turkish ministers. In turn, Erdogan has threatened retaliatory measures, and he even got the support of much of what has survived of the opposition. As a whole, the fallout is caused by years of building tensions despite the demonstrated partnership. Turkey used to be a staunch US ally, but this has changed since Erdogan embarked on his authoritarian project. You know all the elements of this drama: deteriorating human rights, a partnership with Russia in Syria, etc. Turkey's plans to purchase Russian missiles (which NATO says are incompatible with the allied systems), is not helping much, either.
Also, Erdogan will never forgive his partners for failing to support him in the hours after the failed coup against him in 2016. He's also angry with the US support for the Kurds fighting ISIL in Syria. Another point of contention is the US reluctance to extradite Gullen, whom Erdogan blames for the coup attempt. Trump's decision to exit the Iran nuke deal is also a problem for Turkey: almost half of their oil imports come from Iran, and renewed sanctions against Tehran means a huge blow on the Turkish economy.
The US cannot afford to stall any longer. The recent elections in Turkey may've strengthened Erdogan, but he didn't actually win by a landslide like Putin did in Russia. Turkey is politically divided, and the more Erdogan is ruling through force, the more vulnerable he'll get, especially if the economy is getting worse, adding extra weight to the equation.
Of course, a diplomatic solution is preferable to continuous escalation. The US-Turkish partnership remains of strategic importance. Without Turkey, a US-led world order based on the rule of law would be hard to achieve and maintain, and the Middle East could hardly be kept away from chaos. There are no other predominantly Muslim countries that could serve as a bridge between the West and the Middle East, or achieve the democratic standards that the Turks have long been used to. But the US may have to settle for relations that are less loyal than they used to be, less allied, and more based on business-style deals.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 10:43 (UTC)It's all happening at the moment. I wonder if folk think that as we approach maximum chaos they can take advantage of this state of affairs?
I think we can expect things to get even more complicated. It's an abstracted variation of the old "bury the news" story by releasing it when something important is happening. If folk think they can lose their behaviour in an overall chaotic set of crises they will act to their advantage behind the smokescreen which the chaos provides. Mob mentality normally equates to a conspiratorial suspension of the rule of law - which is how lynchings happen. I wonder if the effect travels across orders of magnitude from the village mob with pitchforks and torches, to actual nation-states with armies and navies and air forces? (This wondering is, of course, purely rhetorical; I'm pretty sure of my conclusions, and the "wondering" is merely a device to give any reader a quick ability to draw similar conclusions merely from having the question posed. I think that greater numbers attenuate blatant idiocy, but still leave stupidity and foolishness rampant - greater numbers compress the extremes of opinion and diminish the mean, which is why referenda tend to have simple questions needing yes/no answers.)
We do rather need a return to sanity, but instead we have: Trump, Erdogan, Brexit, Uncle Vlad, Syria, and Uncle Tom Cobbley and all and all, and Uncle Tom Cobbley and all.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 10:56 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 10:59 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 11:59 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 12:40 (UTC)The hemi-demi-semi fascists are waxing mighty at the moment - Would you have bought land in Spain under Franco's regime, for example? As happens, Spain was reasonably stable; will Turkey be?
I'm not qualified to make the sort of business decisions you make, and the variables which are important to you, and nor do I have a proper grounding in the relevant Turkish property laws; and it may well be that a quick turnover could be a good thing for you. But I'd hesitate at a long-term commitment.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 14:36 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 17:39 (UTC)I just don’t want folk I interact with burned.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 17:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 15/8/18 00:12 (UTC)I did a gig with the function band last week; on first sax we had Jools Holland's musical director. When even folk like that need casual work it shows what sort of situation most professional musicians find themselves in. Ergo I tend not to take folk for granted when it comes to talking about these sorts of investment, knowing how they can prove difficult even between EU countries, and not knowing how exposure to risk will change people's lives. I know you know the ground better than I would ever, and so am reasonably reassured. I just can't predict where Turkey is moving, beyond the obvious of course.
Not being an American nor an EU citizen/subject (despite Turkey being EU compliant on a lot of things) you do have a rather different view of things. And I guess you to be far too canny to put all of your eggs in one basket. Sometimes you have to cover the pot, other times you can just chip away at profit. :) The latter is always my favoured strategy, given an option, as it tends to promote ease-of-living; and for an idle member of the hated elite like me, given to free time and contemplation, that is just fine and dandy.
As usual, fortune favour you and yours. Make a megabuck. :)
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/18 07:29 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 15/8/18 07:52 (UTC)As is, I want at least a few of the good guys to make some money. They do better things with it, for a given value of better. :) Honour to your house.
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/18 16:02 (UTC)https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/15/tenants-on-our-own-land-new-zealand-bans-sale-of-homes-to-foreign-buyers
The world is getting a bit... narrower; maybe the bits for which I have affinity are becoming rather more so than the non-Anglo-Saxon world.
(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 14:40 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/8/18 11:39 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 15/8/18 18:28 (UTC)Putin deciding to accelerate by orders of magnitude to no reprisal, plus NATO's hypocrisy on Syrian government shelling of Turkey vs. domestic French terrorists shooting up a soccer game well....
(no subject)
Date: 15/8/18 18:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 15/8/18 19:00 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 15/8/18 18:18 (UTC)The only difference is Trump cares as much about NATO as Erdogan does.