Peace without Justice in Syria

[tcpip]

I have recently written a piece with the above title. Rather than an on-the-hour repost (as I sometimes do), I'll give a summary version here as follows.

1. Turkey has taken Afrin and the surrounding area. It has observation posts throughout the borders of Idlib province, which has a large Syrian Turkmen population. Turkey is certainly Manij, but some other NATO forces (France in particular) is telling them to back off.

2. The Syrian regime has captured Jawbar, Zamalka, Irbin, and Hirista suburbs in Damascus, and is moving against he rebel enclave of Duma.

3. The Turkish backed-FSA will almost certainly seek to finish off the Islamicist forces in Idlib province. The Islamicist forces are notable for their lack of popular support and their military prowess.

4. The Assad regime will remain in place, instead of its leadership going to The Hague. There is no path in the immediate future for a rebel-victory, especially after the Russian military intervention. Syria is now a client-state of Russia.

5. Any remote chance of an opposition victory was overturned on January this year, when the FSA agreed to get rid of the SDF forces in Afrin.

Comments

[halialkers]

Turkey *did* ask people to invoke Article V. NATO conspicuously said no, until Syria came to a soccer game. Then it was serious business.

[tcpip]

*nods* True fact. Apparently NATO doesn't consider border skirmishes serious enough (9/11 did, however, make the cut.

[halialkers]

And when Russia pushes NATO to a general nuclear exchange shit like that is where it all began. Washington, Berlin, London, and Paris may not remember who's in NATO but Russia saw it fracture completely and invades candidate members with zero reprisal.

Russia will not be insane to do that, it'll be making rational decisions until one turns out to be unlike the others.