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talkpoliticsI have recently written a piece with the above title. Rather than an on-the-hour repost (as I sometimes do), I'll give a summary version here as follows.
1. Turkey has taken Afrin and the surrounding area. It has observation posts throughout the borders of Idlib province, which has a large Syrian Turkmen population. Turkey is certainly Manij, but some other NATO forces (France in particular) is telling them to back off.
2. The Syrian regime has captured Jawbar, Zamalka, Irbin, and Hirista suburbs in Damascus, and is moving against he rebel enclave of Duma.
3. The Turkish backed-FSA will almost certainly seek to finish off the Islamicist forces in Idlib province. The Islamicist forces are notable for their lack of popular support and their military prowess.
4. The Assad regime will remain in place, instead of its leadership going to The Hague. There is no path in the immediate future for a rebel-victory, especially after the Russian military intervention. Syria is now a client-state of Russia.
5. Any remote chance of an opposition victory was overturned on January this year, when the FSA agreed to get rid of the SDF forces in Afrin.
1. Turkey has taken Afrin and the surrounding area. It has observation posts throughout the borders of Idlib province, which has a large Syrian Turkmen population. Turkey is certainly Manij, but some other NATO forces (France in particular) is telling them to back off.
2. The Syrian regime has captured Jawbar, Zamalka, Irbin, and Hirista suburbs in Damascus, and is moving against he rebel enclave of Duma.
3. The Turkish backed-FSA will almost certainly seek to finish off the Islamicist forces in Idlib province. The Islamicist forces are notable for their lack of popular support and their military prowess.
4. The Assad regime will remain in place, instead of its leadership going to The Hague. There is no path in the immediate future for a rebel-victory, especially after the Russian military intervention. Syria is now a client-state of Russia.
5. Any remote chance of an opposition victory was overturned on January this year, when the FSA agreed to get rid of the SDF forces in Afrin.
(no subject)
Date: 17/4/18 03:33 (UTC)> Russia has fuck all reason to fear anyone at present other than China
Too right. Sadly, the political climate in Russia at the moment is so toxic is that the government isn't afraid of the people.
(no subject)
Date: 17/4/18 03:38 (UTC)Why would it be? It knows that the last three US Administrations love dictators who gun their own people down in the right circumstances. Just ask Obama and his Iran policy, or Shrub and Trump and their Putin fetishism.