The stage is set

[luzribeiro]

Here's a state by state illustration of Trump’s disapproval ratings.

Something tells me the 2018 midterm elections are going to be one of the most exhilarating periods in American politics. Many are rubbing their hands and saying, bring it on! Trump and his GOP congressmen will see what draining the swamp truly means. The stage is set.

Oh, and what of the congressmen who've been pushing Trump's agenda through Congress? In many cases they will be held accountable as well.

Any predictions? Major upsets? How will Congress look like after themidterms?

Comments

[garote]

I don't trust these numbers.

This is approval rating among the general populace, which is not the same thing as likelihood to vote, let alone likelihood to vote for or against the same party line that person has always voted on.

These numbers were also gathered using a very small sample size and then estimating for the larger size based on the demographics of the state. Gallup talked to 17,000 people in California, for example, which is roughly 1/2500th of the population there. There's a nasty margin of error on that.

Half the voting population didn't bother to vote, and I have a strong hunch that many more democrats tend to stay home than republicans. Plus, historically, midterm elections - any election except the presidency, really - has had a pathetic turnout, which will magnify that effect.

In the 90's there was a controversial rapper named Paris, who said, "black power means more than a t-shirt." I think that could be repurposed for the 2010's as "democracy means more than a hashtag."

Slacktivism is alive and well, and too many people on the democrat side are spinning their wheels arguing over how to do it best. They will do anything, anything to win those arguments, except put their own asses in the fucking voting booth come November.

Or I could be totally wrong and this year will surprise me.

[dewline]

Amen to that. On the other hand, there's a lot going on that I don't get to see from where I live outside the States, so I wonder how big the surprise in November becomes, and if it'll be good or terrifying.

[oportet]

I think Dems will make gains in the house, maybe pull it to around 230-205. Republicans will gain a few in the Senate, but they won't make it to 60 (maybe 55-45) - meaning 2 more years of Trump occasionally getting what he wants, but not never or always.

Republicans should aim for boring primaries - keep Bannon and any other signs of internal disorder out of the news.

Democrats should be wary of polls - and treat my state, Alabama, as an anomaly and not a sign of things to come (beating a pedophile at odds with his own party doesn't mean you're back on track).

[mahnmut]

Wow, Texas ain't lovin' Trump, eh? How come? ;-)

[telemann]

Seems likely the Democrats will take back Congress; they only need two seats now in the Senate and the House seems doable at this point. Plus the Pennsylvania state supreme court ordered the GOP legislature to redraw its districts (and the Supreme Court didn't hear the Republicans appeal on that, so the order for redistricting stands). And then the Virginia wins for the Democrats (the Gov/ Lt. Gov/ Attorney General), and then the big wins in the state house (Democrats took the control back of the State Senate and big wins in the House of Delegates were pretty historic).

[jazzyjj]

Well, I predict one of 2 things will happen. Either #45 will be impeached and Dems will get back both the House and Senate or there will be at least 2 more years of Dump and he'll pull more of his shenanigans. Regarding these numbers, for some reason the screen reader I'm currently using skipped over a lot of information so I didn't get it. But I'm listening to Bon Jovi using iTunes, so something might've happened. I will have to come back here when I'm not listening to anything else and take a closer look. I also have another thing on here that I can use and see if it works better. A lot of these mainstream news sites don't play that nicely with screen readers.

[halialkers]

It really does look favorable to the Dems and they're getting some surprising wins, all things considered. That's just enough optimism for me to hope they'll manage to avoid the classic wrenching defeat from the jaws of victory trope.