A lot is going to be said on Trump from now on...

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

...So why not jump on the bandwagon, I thought? Now, here is an excellent and very scary article:

The rise of American authoritarianism

"A niche group of political scientists may have uncovered what's driving Donald Trump's ascent. What they found has implications that go well beyond 2016."

Most notable part in my opinion:

"Perhaps the GOP obstructionism for the past seven years can be blamed for voter anger at Washington. The parallels to the rise of Hitler can be gleaned from Trump's plain-talk appeal. Like Hitler, he repeats a simplistic message of ultra-nationalism which resonates with xenophobic Americans. He blames the Mexicans, the Chinese, and other foreign influences for lost jobs and prosperity just as Hitler blamed the Jews and played on Germany's long history of anti-Semitism. [Grimm's Fairy Tales contains anti-Semitic stories dating back to AD 1350]."

Of course there was going to be a Hitler parallel. Where without him. However, it seems to me that the difference with the Hitler situation is that Trump is basically an opportunist while Hitler was a man who had a long-term plan. And although things have indeed greatly eroded in America for the middle class and the working poor, it (still) isn't anywhere near what was going on in Germany after WW1.

Still, an almost perfect storm of domestic and international events allowing these frustrations to boil to the surface seems to be forming in the US:

- The traumatic event of an actual foreign terrorist attack on US soil in 2001;
- The Iraq War and all the jingoism associated with the military;
- The conflicts in the Middle East leading to massive immigration in Europe and the fear the same thing will happen in America;
- The suspicion of anything Muslim;
- The rise of the Internet where it's OK to sit at your computer and give anonymous entities free rein to all your prejudices and hatreds (and have them reinforced);
- The election of a president who can easily be made to appear as "not one of us";
- The softening of public stances on gay marriage and LGBT rights in general;
- The blurring of the line between hard news and opinion;
- The political and economic implications of climate change;
- The way income and opportunities are eroding for a large segment of the population;
- The continuing sensationalising of the news in order to get market share in a crowded market.

...All of the above, and probably many other things, seem to have come together over the last few years to play on the fears and emotions of people and make them susceptible to the overtures of someone who can project strength and virility even if he does not necessarily have them.

It almost doesn't matter if he says totally contradictory things within the space of five minutes, and it's probably true that his popularity wouldn't be at all diminished if he stood in the street and shot someone. He is meeting a visceral need in people looking for a strong authority figure to keep them safe - or at least give them the impression that they are safe. And unfortunately, sometimes when the need for feelings of safety are strong enough, they can lead to some very ugly policies.

America is in a peril much greater than it probably suspects. And by the way, similar processes are happening in Europe with the steady rise of the far-right - again, mostly due to the rising sense of insecurity amongst the populace, and a feeling of disconnect between the people and their rulers. This is a dangerous situation, and it should not be underestimated.

Comments

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

The fall-out continues:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/05/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

I guess someone's eating their hypothetical wager (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1997647.html?thread=149891407#t149891407) right now. :-P

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

Ahem (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/2023339.html). =)

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Nod.

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

The GOP loves incompetent. They love people they can relate to and have a beer with. They hate 'ivory tower elitists'. They're going to vote for him because the other candidates just seem manufactured... or evil... that's the perception. The GOP has done everything in its power to make career politicians look like robots only out for their own gain, and now they're trying to eat their cake too.

[dreamville-bg.livejournal.com]

I wonder if the original Donald (http://www.morningticker.com/2016/03/meet-robot-donald-trump/) could pass the Turing test.

[oportet.livejournal.com]

He's crazy, and I haven't, nor do I plan on voting for him - but the doomsday predictions, the 'if this person is elected, they'll destroy our country'/'if this person is elected I'm leaving'/'anyone but ______' lines pop up every 4 years. And every four years someone who people said those lines about is elected.

Donald Trump was a great idea. In hindsight, yes - a terrible idea, but at the time, it made sense. The GOP probably couldn't overtake the Dems as the 'hip' party, but they had to close the gap. And an over the top, unfiltered, reality tv star was perfect to bring in some ratings, and give people exposure to the other candidates the party had to offer. 15-24 million people weren't tuning in to see Rubio dispel with the fiction, or Cruz bring up the goddamn gang of 8 for the thousandth time, or Kasich recite his resume, or Carson fade in and out of consciousness - they tuned in for Trump.

Simply put - it was a great plan that backfired. They test drove the cool sports car around town for too long, now they probably have to buy it - and deal with whatever shitty gas mileage and safety hazards that come with it.

Dems shouldn't get too cocky though, if they don't have a better plan than calling him a racist and sexist* - get used to the idea of President Trump.

*Not that he isn't - but 1)he can dodge an attack that simple, and 2) that attack may be overused, but maybe I'll save that boy-who-cried-wolfish lesson for an entire post when I have more time, more wine, and the final match is set

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

but the doomsday predictions, the 'if this person is elected, they'll destroy our country'/'if this person is elected I'm leaving'/'anyone but ______' lines pop up every 4 year

Absolutely (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/2066155.html).

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

I'd love to have another PresidentMoron to make fun of, for the record.

[garote]

Three years into his presidency he's going to mandate that we all water our crops using Brawndo, The Thirst Mutilator. :D

[unnamed525.livejournal.com]

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

"America is in a peril much greater than it probably suspects."

Probably not, unless you think another President Clinton to put the US in peril.

That said, I also disagree with several of the items on the list. The immigration crisis in Europe isn't one of the things behind Trump's rise. Europe will likely get somewhere around a million people this year in an area with a population of about 500 million. The US receives about a million people per year every year in an area with a population of 300 million, this has been going on for decades. This is the immigration crisis that nobody talks about but does contribute to Mr. Trump's rise. There is a large portion of the population, those without many skills and much education, who have to compete with recent immigrants, who are willing to work very hard for what Americans would consider a low wage. Neither party really addresses this, the Democrats seem to be for more immigration while the GOP hasn't done much either.

Additionally, globalization, while good for the US economy as a whole, is also allowing manufacturing jobs, again held by that same group at the bottom of the job market, to move anywhere in the world. Of course some higher end manufacturers, the kind who hire more skilled and educated workers, will benefit, as does the knowledge economy. Again, neither political party is doing much to ensure there are jobs at the lower end of the workforce to replace those which are lost. Republicans are all for the growth that globalization brings while the Democratic presidents are actually the ones who have signed most of our major, recent trade agreements.

This has left a pretty significant group who correctly understand that their interests are threatened by both immigration and globalization, at least as they currently work in the US and don't see either party offering any solutions. These aren't people who are looking for a social net but rather the kind of low skilled, decent wage jobs that used to be available to their parents... at least for white men. The Democrats write them off as uneducated racists and offer a safety net which they don't want, the GOP treats them as collateral damage while pursuing the growth that globalization offers, Mr. Trump is the first person to address their concerns. They also identify Mr. Trump both when the Democrats call him an anti-intellectual racist for his immigration policies and when the Republicans try to sideline him in pursuit of someone who will continue to support policies which grow the economy at their expense.

Personally, I don't agree with Mr. Trump's positions, trade is good for the economy as a whole as are immigrants, like my parents, but there are those who don't see either as being in their best interests... and they're probably correct.

Of course, this makes Mr. Trump more like Chavez than Hitler.

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

I understand your point about Europe and America's potential to absorb immigration. However, if numbers could rule the way people react and behave, it would be great. Unfortunately, they do not, more often than not.

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

Naw, I don't think any populists look at the numbers to figure out where discontent is likely to spring up. I was only using the numbers to illustrate the scale of immigrants, mostly economic, that are driving this issue in the US. It's not that the blue collar whites who are supporting Trump are racists, although there certainly are quite a few, it's that they are seeing their already limited opportunities spread across more and more people every year. This is going to get any group of people looking for an answer and the only one who is providing one is Trump.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

So America's taking the same paths as Russia, France, and Hungary?

Western democracy in general is in peril, and in France and America, in peril in states with nuclear weapons.

All Trump is is a Hugo Chavez in American garb, a demagogic swaggering bully with zero regard for rule of law and making sweeping populist appeals he has no intent to follow through on.

And indeed, if it was, there'd be open warfare between paramilitaries like the Sturmabteilung, the Reichsbanner Swchwartz-Rot-Gold, and the Rotfront, which the USA hasn't quite reached the point of yet. Most of the politically active subset of the USA is too old and too fat for that shit and young people are too apathetic and ignorant to give a shit enough to try. Real fascism needs young people if it's on the model of the 1930s movements, which were iconcolastic youth movements with disproportionate involvement of the kind of college-educated youth busier creating safe spaces rather than openly busting skulls and glorying in bloodshed.

Today's American youth are too much a bunch of overfed swaggering cowards to even try that shit. If they saw and smelled the blood they'd piss themselves and run.

Doesn't make Trump less dangerous, but it does defang the dragon somewhat. So does the US military promising a coup against him if he wins (and then the USA really does go full Roman Empire).

[garote]

We all yearn for the glory days of the Roman empire... As long as we get to watch it from on high as gods (or at least not as slaves) ...

I'd like to think that the American youth would not piss themselves and run, so much as, gnash their teeth and immediately fall to infighting and savagery when their phone service cuts off and the coffee shops run dry ;)