After Saud, what?
17/2/16 00:24![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
mahnmut.livejournal.com posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpolitics"From plummeting oil prices to foreign-policy missteps to growing tensions with Iran, a confluence of recent events is mounting to pose some serious challenges for the Saudi regime. If not properly managed, these events could eventually coalesce into a perfect storm that significantly increases the risk of instability within the kingdom, with untold consequences for global oil markets and security in the Middle East." [source]
Yes, some are already predicting an imminent collapse of the Saudi regime. And there's some credence to that scenario, since there are some deep-rooted structural flaws in Saudi Arabia that may have been gradually pushing it towards the bring of state failure - and at a much more accelerated pace lately.
Things have gone so tensed that analysts are already muttering things about a behind-the-scenes coup brewing in Riyadh, now that senior members of the Saudi royal family are openly calling for a "change" in the leadership to fend off the kingdom's collapse.
If Saudi Arabia, the most dominant player in that region, goes from riches to rags, the fact that it's sitting atop of vast resources that may soon turn out to be completely useless, and is simultaneously armed to the teeth, espouses an extremely conservative fundamentalist form of an otherwise quite assertive religion as its state doctrine, and is increasingly feeling the geopolitical pressure from a number of neighbors - all of this is not helping us be optimistic, either.
So my question is, what's next for Saudi Arabia, or whatever that piece of desert is going to be called if the "Saudi" element somehow gets out of the equation? What would be the short- and long-term consequences of such a collapse, both for the region, for the global economy, for big-game geopolitics, and all that? Could a possible coup in Saudi Arabia, or in the more extreme case, a complete collapse of the Saudi regime, signal the end of US dominance in the Middle East? What would that mean for other players like Russia, Israel, Turkey, Iran and Europe? Would still other players venture to step in, like China, India, Pakistan, etc? All in all, what's your prediction about the consequences of a possible end of the Saudi regime?
Go ahead and exercise your clairvoyant skills! You know you want to.
Yes, some are already predicting an imminent collapse of the Saudi regime. And there's some credence to that scenario, since there are some deep-rooted structural flaws in Saudi Arabia that may have been gradually pushing it towards the bring of state failure - and at a much more accelerated pace lately.
Things have gone so tensed that analysts are already muttering things about a behind-the-scenes coup brewing in Riyadh, now that senior members of the Saudi royal family are openly calling for a "change" in the leadership to fend off the kingdom's collapse.
If Saudi Arabia, the most dominant player in that region, goes from riches to rags, the fact that it's sitting atop of vast resources that may soon turn out to be completely useless, and is simultaneously armed to the teeth, espouses an extremely conservative fundamentalist form of an otherwise quite assertive religion as its state doctrine, and is increasingly feeling the geopolitical pressure from a number of neighbors - all of this is not helping us be optimistic, either.
So my question is, what's next for Saudi Arabia, or whatever that piece of desert is going to be called if the "Saudi" element somehow gets out of the equation? What would be the short- and long-term consequences of such a collapse, both for the region, for the global economy, for big-game geopolitics, and all that? Could a possible coup in Saudi Arabia, or in the more extreme case, a complete collapse of the Saudi regime, signal the end of US dominance in the Middle East? What would that mean for other players like Russia, Israel, Turkey, Iran and Europe? Would still other players venture to step in, like China, India, Pakistan, etc? All in all, what's your prediction about the consequences of a possible end of the Saudi regime?
Go ahead and exercise your clairvoyant skills! You know you want to.
(no subject)
Date: 16/2/16 19:42 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 16/2/16 22:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 17/2/16 02:41 (UTC)