The Kazakh scenario
26/11/14 00:01![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsBack in August, Russian president Putin visited the summer camp of the youth organisation "Nashi" (Ours), a few hundred km north-west of Moscow, where he answered questions from students from all around Russia. A young girl asked him a question about Kazakhstan, being concerned about the anti-Russian moods in that country. "Could we expect a Ukrainian scenario in case president Nazarbayev falls from power?", she asked. Putin's response, intended as a compliment to his Kazakh counterpart, actually had the opposite effect among the Kazakhs. "You know that president Nazarbayev is a competent leader, maybe the most competent in the entire post-Soviet space. He has built a state where none had existed before that, he essentially created the Kazakh statehood. The Kazakhs have already realised that the Eurasian space is in their favour and benefits their economy. They realised that they are thus entering the large Russian world, as part of the global civilisation", Putin said.
Excuse me... The Kazakhs didn't have statehood of their own and were part of the Russian world?! It's hardly surprising that many Kazakh citizens took Putin's response not just as direct insult to their culture, but as a clear indication of Russia's power ambitions. What's more, the friendly alliance between Kazakhstan and Russia is now being in a process of being developed further with a new important idea. In may in the new Kazakh capital Astana, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia signed an agreement on the creation of the Eurasian economic union, which will take effect on January 1, 2015. The Russian state medias qualified that as "news of global significance". The Eurasian union will now include 170 million people, and a GDP worth $ 2 trillion. Kazakhstan is one of Russia's most important allies. As early as 2012, the three countries created a customs union, and in the subsequent years a lot of trade restrictions were removed between them. Many Kazakhs however are very opposed to union with Russia. And Putin has as many detractors as he has advocates in that country.
There are over 100 ethnic groups in Kazakhstan. This multiethnic state is largely a consequence of Stalin's policies, who deported millions of people from the ethnic minorities (Germans, Ukrainians, Tatars, etc) to the Kazakh steppes. After Kazakhstan declared independence in 1991, many Russians left the country. Today the ethnic Kazakhs are 2/3 of the population, and the Russians are roughly 21%. But the northern regions along the Russian border are ethnically dominated by the Russians. People living there are genuinely concerned of a possible Russian invasion by the Crimean and Donbass model, under the pretext of "defending" the Russian population from some imaginary threat. In reality, Kazakhstan is a small economy and its civic society is not yet fully developed. And huge Russia could use it to dump their goods and suck our money out. In other words, this Union is in no way equal. The Kazakh people are concerned that the accelerated Eurasian integration is a tool of the Russian neo-imperialism. What's for sure, Putin's actions in Ukraine have additionally inflamed the debate about the Eurasian economic union. While about 60% of Kazakhstan's population may still be supporting Putin, most of them are from the older generations. These are the people who have grown up in Soviet times, and are still influenced by the propaganda on the Russian media.
Along wtih China, Russia is Kazakhstan's most important trade partner. But the country is very dependent on Russian imports. In 2013 Kazakhstan imported goods worth almost $ 18 billion from Russia. Direct Russian investment keeps constantly growing, and last year it amounted to $ 1.3 billion. In reality though, the economic union has also created many problems for Kazakhstan. The prices of clothes and cars have risen significantly, because customs duty rates in Kazakstan had to be adjusted to the higher rates in Russia. The Western sanctions on Russia and Russia's counter-measures are also affecting the Kazakh economy very negatively. Their hopes to draw some dividends from the Russian embargo on the imports of foods from the West have turned out too unrealistic. Kazakhstan has almost no potential for exporting food products, and its overall trade with Belarus and Russia has been getting weaker in recent months.
The Kazakh president Nazarbayev keeps insisting that the Eurasian Union is only meant to boost trade cooperation in the post-Soviet space, and not as a political tool. But he's obviously starting to feel increasing distrust for the Big Brother, given Russia's reckless actions in Ukraine. After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis in Agusut, Nazarbayev suddenly sent a clear message of warning to Russia, during an interview for the state television. "Kazakhstan retains the right to reject participation in the Eurasian Union, if the agreed rules are not respected. We would never participate in an organisation that poses a threat to Kazakh independence", he said. Famous political scientist and chairman of the NGO Risk Assessment Group, Dosym Saptayev claims that the Eurasian Union is a tool which Putin is outright using for political purposes: "Now Putin is trying to create the core of a supranational alliance, where Russia would play the leading role. It is not a new Soviet Union, but a regional alliance where Russia would curb the capabilities of the other participants to maintain relations with other competitors in the post-Soviet space", he summarises.
So far Kazakhstan has successfully managed to withstand the tight embrace of the Russian bear. It's a fact that the treaty for the creation of the Eurasian Union was signed much earlier than previously planned. Apparently, Putin wanted to ensure Kazakh participation, since Ukraine had to be scratched off the list of potential participants. This way Kazakhstan has found itself in a slightly more favourable strategic position, and managed to negotiate some amendments to the contract. The initial version was updated, to exclude things like the introduction of common citizenship, as well as many stipulations related to migration. This way Kazakhstan indirectly shows Russia that it considers itself a sovereign state, and wants to remain such.
There've been talks about a shared currency for quite a while, and Kazakhstan has made it clear that relying on Russia's currency is not the only option on its table. The Kazakh are interested in having good relations with China and the West. So far they're obviously somehow managing to balance between the necessary partnership with Russia and asserting their own interests. But the situation could change pretty fast. If the political card is introduced in the game, another Ukrainian scenario is not to be completely ruled out indeed. When a country is weakened internally, the external players are always sure to start salivating, and quick to jump in. The possible fragmentation of Kazakhstan (again, using the strong Russian ethnic factor as a lever) could eventually involve other countries beyond Kazakhstan and Russia.
I think the weakest link in the Kazakh position is the question of Nazarbayev's successor. So far there has been no clarity as to who'll succeed the 74 y.o. president. There's practically no opposition in Kazakstan right now. Nazarbayev himself has failed to address the issue, as well. Whether he'll manage to preserve his political legacy and prepare the country for the emerging challenges, remains questionable.
If Kazakhstan manages to constructively and quickly solve some of its internal problems, while simultaneously finding its own way of development on the international stage that's somewhat independent from Russia, the country could turn out to be a stabilising factor in the post-Soviet space. And it better live up to the expectations. Because the alternative looks rather unpleasant.
Excuse me... The Kazakhs didn't have statehood of their own and were part of the Russian world?! It's hardly surprising that many Kazakh citizens took Putin's response not just as direct insult to their culture, but as a clear indication of Russia's power ambitions. What's more, the friendly alliance between Kazakhstan and Russia is now being in a process of being developed further with a new important idea. In may in the new Kazakh capital Astana, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia signed an agreement on the creation of the Eurasian economic union, which will take effect on January 1, 2015. The Russian state medias qualified that as "news of global significance". The Eurasian union will now include 170 million people, and a GDP worth $ 2 trillion. Kazakhstan is one of Russia's most important allies. As early as 2012, the three countries created a customs union, and in the subsequent years a lot of trade restrictions were removed between them. Many Kazakhs however are very opposed to union with Russia. And Putin has as many detractors as he has advocates in that country.
There are over 100 ethnic groups in Kazakhstan. This multiethnic state is largely a consequence of Stalin's policies, who deported millions of people from the ethnic minorities (Germans, Ukrainians, Tatars, etc) to the Kazakh steppes. After Kazakhstan declared independence in 1991, many Russians left the country. Today the ethnic Kazakhs are 2/3 of the population, and the Russians are roughly 21%. But the northern regions along the Russian border are ethnically dominated by the Russians. People living there are genuinely concerned of a possible Russian invasion by the Crimean and Donbass model, under the pretext of "defending" the Russian population from some imaginary threat. In reality, Kazakhstan is a small economy and its civic society is not yet fully developed. And huge Russia could use it to dump their goods and suck our money out. In other words, this Union is in no way equal. The Kazakh people are concerned that the accelerated Eurasian integration is a tool of the Russian neo-imperialism. What's for sure, Putin's actions in Ukraine have additionally inflamed the debate about the Eurasian economic union. While about 60% of Kazakhstan's population may still be supporting Putin, most of them are from the older generations. These are the people who have grown up in Soviet times, and are still influenced by the propaganda on the Russian media.
Along wtih China, Russia is Kazakhstan's most important trade partner. But the country is very dependent on Russian imports. In 2013 Kazakhstan imported goods worth almost $ 18 billion from Russia. Direct Russian investment keeps constantly growing, and last year it amounted to $ 1.3 billion. In reality though, the economic union has also created many problems for Kazakhstan. The prices of clothes and cars have risen significantly, because customs duty rates in Kazakstan had to be adjusted to the higher rates in Russia. The Western sanctions on Russia and Russia's counter-measures are also affecting the Kazakh economy very negatively. Their hopes to draw some dividends from the Russian embargo on the imports of foods from the West have turned out too unrealistic. Kazakhstan has almost no potential for exporting food products, and its overall trade with Belarus and Russia has been getting weaker in recent months.
The Kazakh president Nazarbayev keeps insisting that the Eurasian Union is only meant to boost trade cooperation in the post-Soviet space, and not as a political tool. But he's obviously starting to feel increasing distrust for the Big Brother, given Russia's reckless actions in Ukraine. After the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis in Agusut, Nazarbayev suddenly sent a clear message of warning to Russia, during an interview for the state television. "Kazakhstan retains the right to reject participation in the Eurasian Union, if the agreed rules are not respected. We would never participate in an organisation that poses a threat to Kazakh independence", he said. Famous political scientist and chairman of the NGO Risk Assessment Group, Dosym Saptayev claims that the Eurasian Union is a tool which Putin is outright using for political purposes: "Now Putin is trying to create the core of a supranational alliance, where Russia would play the leading role. It is not a new Soviet Union, but a regional alliance where Russia would curb the capabilities of the other participants to maintain relations with other competitors in the post-Soviet space", he summarises.
So far Kazakhstan has successfully managed to withstand the tight embrace of the Russian bear. It's a fact that the treaty for the creation of the Eurasian Union was signed much earlier than previously planned. Apparently, Putin wanted to ensure Kazakh participation, since Ukraine had to be scratched off the list of potential participants. This way Kazakhstan has found itself in a slightly more favourable strategic position, and managed to negotiate some amendments to the contract. The initial version was updated, to exclude things like the introduction of common citizenship, as well as many stipulations related to migration. This way Kazakhstan indirectly shows Russia that it considers itself a sovereign state, and wants to remain such.
There've been talks about a shared currency for quite a while, and Kazakhstan has made it clear that relying on Russia's currency is not the only option on its table. The Kazakh are interested in having good relations with China and the West. So far they're obviously somehow managing to balance between the necessary partnership with Russia and asserting their own interests. But the situation could change pretty fast. If the political card is introduced in the game, another Ukrainian scenario is not to be completely ruled out indeed. When a country is weakened internally, the external players are always sure to start salivating, and quick to jump in. The possible fragmentation of Kazakhstan (again, using the strong Russian ethnic factor as a lever) could eventually involve other countries beyond Kazakhstan and Russia.
I think the weakest link in the Kazakh position is the question of Nazarbayev's successor. So far there has been no clarity as to who'll succeed the 74 y.o. president. There's practically no opposition in Kazakstan right now. Nazarbayev himself has failed to address the issue, as well. Whether he'll manage to preserve his political legacy and prepare the country for the emerging challenges, remains questionable.
If Kazakhstan manages to constructively and quickly solve some of its internal problems, while simultaneously finding its own way of development on the international stage that's somewhat independent from Russia, the country could turn out to be a stabilising factor in the post-Soviet space. And it better live up to the expectations. Because the alternative looks rather unpleasant.
(no subject)
Date: 25/11/14 20:40 (UTC)