More Trouble in Ukraine:

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26252679

At this point the bloodshed has escalated, with both sides digging in and the prospect of a solution to these problems less likely than ever. In these kinds of situations, the salami method of grapeshot does not solve problems, it creates a boiling mess that eventually spills over and creates a much nastier problem. At present the death toll is in the 26 range, but the government evidently has decided to start sacking generals who did not crack down with sufficient force on the protestors. What that means, if anything, is an interesting question in the Chinese sense. Ukraine is not China, it can't just machine-gun dissidents and run them over with tanks and rest assured that the rest of the world will see business as usual. Ukraine is also not Russia, which could and does invade countries right smack in the middle of an Olympics and gets away with it. But when the government escalates its own brutality in a situation like this, it's quite predictable that the dissidents are not going to simply back down, as this kind of bloodshed leads to people on both sides getting more, not less, stubborn.

At present, however, major conflict of this sort still is limited primarily to the environs of Kiev proper, which is simultaneously 'good' and bad. 'Good' insofar as it's relatively localized in terms of potential issues that could turn into a civil war, bad in that the localization happens to be the capital and this is sufficient, in most ways, to outweigh the good.

Comments

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

So, it's mostly bad? ;)

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

That would be one way to put it, yes.

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

I liked Anne Applebaum's commentary when things starting heating up good last month.

~ ~ ~

These events are so harsh, and so contrary to what anyone expected, that they should lead us to abandon immediately some of the illusions we have long held about this part of the world. First and foremost, it’s time to abandon the myth of the “color revolutions”: the belief that peaceful demonstrators, aided by a bit of Western media training, will eventually rise up and nonviolently overthrow the corrupt oligarchies that have run most of the post-Soviet orbit since 1991. The history of Ukraine, from the 2004 Orange Revolution until now, has proved this belief to be false.

In fact, corrupt oligarchs, backed by Russian money and Russian political technology, are a lot stronger than anyone ever expected them to be.

-- Anne Applebaum at The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-ukraine-shows-the-color-revolution-model-is-dead/2014/01/24/c77d3ab0-8524-11e3-8099-9181471f7aaf_story.html)

Can international sanctions really counter effectively Russia's advantage in the region?

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

There really isn't any effective outside counter to Russia in this situation at this point in time.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

That still doesn't mean some wouldn't try (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/04/opinion/ukraine-protests-eu-speck/) it.

[meshekskyi.livejournal.com]

"...corrupt oligarchs, backed by Russian money..." - you believe the "corrupt oligarchs" lacked their own money?

"...and Russian political technology..." - "aided by a bit of Western media training", yes?

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

you believe the "corrupt oligarchs" lacked their own money?

But they are small fish compared to Putin and his inner circle,
and Putin is really calling the shots, no?

[meshekskyi.livejournal.com]

"...and rest assured that the rest of the world will see business as usual..." - oh yes. Sometimes "the rest of the world" can dare to behave decently. If it is profitable.

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

Sorry, Ukrainians. Good luck and all, but you are on your own.

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

Won't you at least sign an online petition?

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Didn't you get the memo (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1824564.html)?

Liking isn't helping. Volunteering does. (http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/airiefairie/5422743/56884/56884_original.jpg)

So grab a Molotov cocktail and show your sympathy!

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

Well, I suspect it won't be too many years before the whole world
seems to be on fire, and it will be like one big war zone anyway.

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

I'm telling ya, we should all totally run for the caves!

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

I already "liked" this on Facebook and YouTube.

What do you want from me? Blood? Treasure? A shit I couldn't give? Sorry, pretty Ukrainian girls. A "thumbs up!" Is as far as I'm willing to go.

(Do not misunderstand me. I think this is a huge mistake for Europe and a failure for the US. It is a hissing shame and the advance of Putin's Russia will bear unwelcome fruit in the future. But, given the weakness and moral cowardice of the EU and the ambivalence and vacillation in the US, to act like anything positive is going to be done for the pro-EU Ukrainians is to put them in the same position we put the Syrian opposition in 2011.)

[meshekskyi.livejournal.com]

Maybe it makes sense to remember "humanitarian bombing" again?

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

This is essentially my take on this whole mess, Likewise for Venezuela.

[yes-justice.livejournal.com]

The internet is an interesting tool.

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

We have certainly gone beyond the days when we were dependent
on newspapers and TV news. Yet, we cannot really do much more
about the things we see.

[yes-justice.livejournal.com]

[telemann.livejournal.com]

I saw this striking photo of Kiev earlier today.




For larger version, click on this link. (http://i.imgur.com/A7bh0dy.jpg)

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

I have a rather sad thought that as soon as Sochi is done that Tsar Vladamir is going to send a tank brigade to help his buddy in Viev hold on to power.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

But, but, I thought comrade Putin and Frau Merkel had come to an agreement (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/us-ukraine-merkel-putin-idUSBREA1I1SI20140219)! (weeps)

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

I hope he is good to his word.

But I will not hold my breath while I hope. Yanukovych seems to be very important to Putin. He's keeping Tymoshenko locked up, and I'd bet a week's pay it is because Putin sees her as the biggest threat to Ukraine remaining entirely a Russian client. Would he risk Yanukovych falling?

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

The recent events (http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_02_21/Ukraine-passes-law-returning-to-2004-Constitution-1135/) from the last couple of days suggest that both Russia and the EU are capable and prepared to sacrifice their respective pawns currently operating on the Ukrainian political stage, for the sake of gaining better positions in the long run.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

Oh Lord, he's messing it up already:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/22/world/europe/ukraine.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0