Serbia's new Savior
13/2/14 16:06![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsPeople in Serbia still remember the footage of the recent snow storms that had blocked the northern region of Vojvodina, and the TV reports about vice prime-minister Aleksandar Vucic who was so busy, heroically saving people in distress from the blizzard. No warm hat on the head, and diving through the snowy hurricane. The government-friendly press went on for days with headlines like, "Vucic saves kids in the snow", and "Opposition leaders have a nice cup of coffee watching the storm on TV".
The thing is, this heroic image of the Serbian vice prime-minister matches the voters' notion of him quite neatly. Almost a month before the March 16 snap elections, his Progressive Party is leading the polls with the impressive 42%, followed way behind by the Democratic Party with just 11%. If this result is repeated at the election, Serbia will practically be left without a viable opposition.
The problem is that the opposition bears the bulk of the responsibility for its own self-destruction. Because for many years after the downfall of Milosevic, the Democrats were mainly serving the interests of their own clientele rather than the people - from the monopolists on the major markets, to the state enterprises, with whose help they kept winning one election after another. They were in control of most media, and while Boris Tadic was president of the DP, he practically had all the power.
When the crisis struck in 2008, the system started shaking severely, only to crumble in 2012 when the Democrats finally collapsed. In these new circumstances, the new winner is definitely Aleksandar Vucic, the leader of the Progressive Party, who's set to become Serbia's next prime-minister. He's now quite busy, creating himself an aura of a visionary and savior of the nation, and his popularity is largely due to the catastrophic poverty levels of the Serbian people, and his personal charisma. Vucic is loved by the media, but not because he helps children escape the snow trap in front of the cameras, but mostly because he's vigorously advocating for a modern European future for his country. He even made some concessions on the Kosovo issue, which removed the final obstacles to Serbia's European integration. As risky as that step was, it has paid off so far.
But let's not forget that Vucic has walked the whole way from a staunch Euro-skeptic to a devout pro-European. At the time Milosevic was waging his bloody wars, Vucic was his Minister of Information. He was imposing fines on "rogue" journalists who dared ask too many questions and criticize the government, and various bans and restrictions on the foreign media. But when the popular uprising started, eventually removing Milosevic from power, Vucic quickly changed the tune, and started a long process of transformation. Now he's come to a point where, after the shocking 2012 victory of his Progressive Party, he's got the leeway to afford doing such risky compromises on such crucial questions like Kosovo.
Some major media are already calling the upcoming election "a vote without a choice", meaning that the Progressives look so far ahead that they're expected to squash all their opponents. The political magicians of today will certainly be coming up with new tricks for the public, and ultimately, it's possible that Vucic could make some political gymnastics and use his immense popularity to avoid the necessity of forming pre-election coalitions with other parties. What the Serbian political elites need to do right now though, is to transform their personal power and interests into a national asset, for the sake of reforming the institutions they're about to take control of. Otherwise the opportunity will have been squandered, the moment missed, and the Serbian democracy will be in a bad position at the moment they eventually arrive at square one for the EU membership negotiations.
The thing is, this heroic image of the Serbian vice prime-minister matches the voters' notion of him quite neatly. Almost a month before the March 16 snap elections, his Progressive Party is leading the polls with the impressive 42%, followed way behind by the Democratic Party with just 11%. If this result is repeated at the election, Serbia will practically be left without a viable opposition.
The problem is that the opposition bears the bulk of the responsibility for its own self-destruction. Because for many years after the downfall of Milosevic, the Democrats were mainly serving the interests of their own clientele rather than the people - from the monopolists on the major markets, to the state enterprises, with whose help they kept winning one election after another. They were in control of most media, and while Boris Tadic was president of the DP, he practically had all the power.
When the crisis struck in 2008, the system started shaking severely, only to crumble in 2012 when the Democrats finally collapsed. In these new circumstances, the new winner is definitely Aleksandar Vucic, the leader of the Progressive Party, who's set to become Serbia's next prime-minister. He's now quite busy, creating himself an aura of a visionary and savior of the nation, and his popularity is largely due to the catastrophic poverty levels of the Serbian people, and his personal charisma. Vucic is loved by the media, but not because he helps children escape the snow trap in front of the cameras, but mostly because he's vigorously advocating for a modern European future for his country. He even made some concessions on the Kosovo issue, which removed the final obstacles to Serbia's European integration. As risky as that step was, it has paid off so far.
But let's not forget that Vucic has walked the whole way from a staunch Euro-skeptic to a devout pro-European. At the time Milosevic was waging his bloody wars, Vucic was his Minister of Information. He was imposing fines on "rogue" journalists who dared ask too many questions and criticize the government, and various bans and restrictions on the foreign media. But when the popular uprising started, eventually removing Milosevic from power, Vucic quickly changed the tune, and started a long process of transformation. Now he's come to a point where, after the shocking 2012 victory of his Progressive Party, he's got the leeway to afford doing such risky compromises on such crucial questions like Kosovo.
Some major media are already calling the upcoming election "a vote without a choice", meaning that the Progressives look so far ahead that they're expected to squash all their opponents. The political magicians of today will certainly be coming up with new tricks for the public, and ultimately, it's possible that Vucic could make some political gymnastics and use his immense popularity to avoid the necessity of forming pre-election coalitions with other parties. What the Serbian political elites need to do right now though, is to transform their personal power and interests into a national asset, for the sake of reforming the institutions they're about to take control of. Otherwise the opportunity will have been squandered, the moment missed, and the Serbian democracy will be in a bad position at the moment they eventually arrive at square one for the EU membership negotiations.
(no subject)
Date: 13/2/14 14:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/2/14 18:25 (UTC)