How to Lose Friends and Frighten People:

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/03/world/europe/ukraine-protests/

So, those Ukrainian protests now see Russia taking the gloves off to start engaging with its neighbor to bolster its own empire. Even without overt Russian influence, this set of protests is not something that could easily be defused or smoothed over. When Russia does openly step in, this is a definite means to prolong that instability, no matter what Putin would or would not intend. Ukraine, for very straightforward reasons, has a good sense to be wary when Russia rears its head in a geopolitical sense.

As per here, from the article:

Last week, in the first concessions made by the government, the Prime Minister and Cabinet resigned, a controversial anti-protest law was repealed, and Yanukovych signed off on a contested amnesty bill for anti-government protesters.

But opposition leaders, who have received backing from the U.S. and EU governments, are pressing for more concessions.

In a statement Monday, Russia's Foreign Ministry told protesters who have set up tents and barricades in the central Independence Square to halt their "provocative steps."

It said one protest leader's calls for street patrols and the blocking of public buildings "contradicted statements about the opposition's commitment to the democratic and European values."

"We hope the opposition in Ukraine will renounce threats and ultimatums and activate a dialogue with the government to solve the severe crisis," the ministry said.

When people in a country face an intractable blend of domestic and foreign policy issues, that's the political equivalent of a Rubik's Cube. Add to this that both sides have foreign backers and that this is in a context where Russia's flexing its muscles and the USA's continuing a pattern of extending its sphere of influence while lacking the cojones to back that extension up when called out on it, I see even less prospect that the Ukrainian situation will end soon or smoothly.

In this case, too, it opens the can of worms that is the Eurasian Union. If Ukraine becomes seriously destabilized, this might potentially screw up the Russian Deep Game on two levels: it indicates how Russian 'friendship' operates in the real world, and it indicates that the Russians aren't able to rein in a situation when they start it. Neither is precisely the basis for an effective consolidation of a new empire-financial union.

Comments

[brother-dour.livejournal.com]

Mother Russia always has been just a gosh-darn whiz at diplomacy, though...

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

They beat the Brits to the punch when it came to Tibet at the turn of the twentieth century.

[brother-dour.livejournal.com]

I think Russia only honestly pursues diplomacy with equal opponents. Otherwise they're heavy-handed bullies. Not so much unlike the U.S., really- I would just argue that the U.S. has traditionally been better at making it seem otherwise...

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Diplomacy being about "opponents" is such an American concept!

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

I dunno, the whole "spheres of influence" thing goes back to when the US was just some backwater nation at the arse end of the world.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

One would've thunk the world may've moved on since the 19th century - but alas.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

For Washington diplomacy is war by other means.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

You'd be right on that score and mistaking a strong army for the only tool of geopolitics has a lot to do with why there is no longer a USSR.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

The US only appears to not be a heavy-handed bully in the eyes of the sorry ass Americans who think that heavy handed bullying is normal.

[brother-dour.livejournal.com]

That's kind of what I meant: the U.S. government is better at the snowjob

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

My argument is that the snowjob is not all that good. It is only truly accepted by people who appreciate the bully boy tactics.

[brother-dour.livejournal.com]

Its not all that good recently. The U.S. was masters of it back during the Cold War and before.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Really? I never got that impression. I suppose the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis could be seen as a diplomatic victory, but it was pursued with the threat of nuclear confrontation.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Insofar as diplomacy means 'nice city you have there, would be just a shame if our artillery reduced it to smoldering rubble,' yes.

The US equivalent is 'nice city you have there. Now, will it be getting the financial screws or our pretty bombers?'.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Ukraine seems to be firmly heading towards splitting up in two along the main divisive lines. And I mean territorially. Some are already arguing that this is the best possible scenario for both sides.