talkpolitics | The scramble for Syria

O, hail, my fellow ~~bored American Idol fans~~ curious peeps who are so utterly concerned about peace and justice in the world! Realpolitik can be a real biach, I say. The biachiest biach of them all, actually. So here are a couple of fancy maps with many colors that look kinda realpolitik-ey.

Today Syria is the arena of fierce clashes between various players. A rain of blood pours on the ancient Syrian land and scourges it with sorrow and pain, while the various players are accusing each other for the tragedy. Politics is being played with ghostly chess pieces, and loud scandals explode like chemical bombs for everyone to hear, and to distract the public from the real issue.

The real issue starts to come out as soon as we take a map of the region and start looking at it. Look at the above two maps, and I think you'll begin to guess where I'm going with all this. It doesn't take more than a few seconds to figure out the connection between the places where modern-day clashes and conflicts tend to take place, and the map of the major energy resources.

Syria has found itself in the middle of a storm, between the hits and blows of a greedy clique which has set its hungry eyes on two huge gas fields: the Levantine one and the one they call South Pars.

In 2010 the Texas company Noble Energy discovered the Leviathan and Tamar fields in the Mediterranean, and later it turned out they were just part of an entire system of natural gas deposits, which is now known as the Levantine field. Its potential deposits are estimated at 3.5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, as well as at least 1.7 billion barrels of oil. Israel instantly declared its intentions to start working on the deposits, and indeed a few days ago they started the Tamar project. Although there is also ground for claims on the Levantine basin from Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus and also the Palestinians. On top of that, the preliminary research shows that this could just be the tip of the iceberg, and much larger deposits of gas could be lurking beneath the waters between Egypt and Greece/Turkey. As early as 2009 a Greek company had made explorations in the area, and small oil deposits were found there. Today, these are estimated at 22 billion barrels in the region of the western Greek coast alone, and about 4 billion barrels in the northern section of the Ionian Sea.

So what's been happening with all the countries involved?

Well, we all know that Greece is already out of the game, and later Cyprus followed its fate. Both countries were led to bankruptcy by various factors, the shitty banking system being a major one among them (in the case with Cyprus, that was basically the only factor). Presently, they're both pressed against the wall, totally incapable of setting any terms and conditions in the game. They're out of the equation for the time being. And what about Syria? There's a devastating civil war raging there for more than two years now, it has destroyed its entire infrastructure, and Syria is also out of the equation.

The Arab spring has knocked Egypt out of the equation too; and in Lebanon, the biggest opponents to the Israeli appropriation of the Leviathan field, the Shia military organization Hezbollah, is now being accused for nearly every evil in the region, and their military branch has been duly placed in the list of terrorist organizations, the push being toward placing the entire organization there. Which means Europe will stop talking to them, and consider them their deadly enemy. And there's just one way to deal with a deadly enemy: shoot it.

The stakes have been raised with the involvement of Turkey which lusts for the gas fields in Cyrpiot waters, using the argument of North Cyprus. Whose claims are legitimate and whose aren't - that largely depends on who you ask. The fact is that Israel is aiming to pass pipelines across Cyprus and Turkey, and from there, to access the lucrative European markets. Hence the recent meetings between Obama and Turkish prime minister Erdogan.

Thus, the logic suggests the following: the Mediterranean gas/oil deposits are certainly one of the major reasons for the crisis in Syria, and the recent activeness of Turkey and Israel. And here of course we're speaking of many, many trillions of dollars. Ones which the public won't see a dime from - only those fat cats sitting in their shiny offices at the HQs of the oil conglomerates. And probably some noble guys on Capitol Hill.

Now this cute blob over here is South Pars, a natural gas field that's presently being shared by Iran and Qatar. It's not just huge. It's by far the hugest gas field in the entire world, its volume is 6 times the size of the second largest field on the planet, Urengoy field in Russia. And much more accessible, mind you. Now, that field has been at the core of the recent conflict between the Sunni and Shia around the Gulf (despite the general media blackout on the matter due to the fact that the Saudis are "our buddies", some of us must might've heard what has happened in Bahrain). Of course right now Iran is a real thorn in the ass of the US interests in the region - the country is the 2nd largest in the world in terms of proven gas resources, with 33.5 trillion cubic meters. The planned pipelines between Pakistan and Iran mean that Iran could begin exporting gas to China directly at some point; and the Qatari share of the field, due to that country's small size, is of a limited mobility in comparison.

This way, Syria turns out to be a very important part of the corridor that's meant to connect Iran to the Mediterranean, and from there, again, to allow Iran to gain access to the European (and North African) markets. Syria is actually *the* key element in that plan, a situation which of course does not suit Qatar, and neither Turkey, which is fiercely pressing for the Nabucco project, which should place the pipeline route across Turkey. An Iranian corridor from China to the Mediterranean would be a geopolitical disaster for both Turkey and the Saudis, so make no mistake: they'll stop at nothing to prevent it from happening.

No surprise that the main "sponsors" and supporters of the Syrian revolution are exactly Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and they don't shy away from admitting this openly (btw there's been something like a competition in that respect as well, which the Saudis seem to be winning as of now). It's also no coincidence that the so called Syrian Free Army consists almost entirely of radical Islamist groups. A tactic that was used in the Afghanistan war (the previous one against Russia), and now in Libya. As for Iraq, the bombing acts against key politicians from the energy branch of government have become very frequent in recent weeks. Again, that's related to Iran's increased influence on Iraqi politics. Ironically, removing Saddam did a great favor to the ayatollahs.

One thing has become obvious: after the wars in Libya and Iraq, the control on the previously nationalized oil has now been "privatized" - and always by the same old companies that we all know and love. Of course now the big target is Iran, but it's a player too big to handle in the same manner, so what is to be done is to install a puppet that would allow these corporations into the game with the Iranian resources. While in the meantime surrounding Iran with obstacles, very much like the way Brzezinsky proposed to handle Russia in his Grand Chessboard concept. And Syria is a piece in that puzzle, the last remaining major partner of Iran. 3 years ago, Iran and Syria reached an agreement on a joint project that would involve Iraq. It's obvious now that this project will fail thanks to the events in Syria.

The levels of hypocrisy in the Middle east have reached unprecedented heights. We're constantly hearing how the war in Syria is about democracy, and how the "rebels" are "freedom-fighters". Those same rebels, who in their great part are foreign mujahideen and radical Islamist fighters. Hell, the opposition in Syria is openly admitting being financed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar! You see, those two paragons of freedom and liberty will be teaching Syria of democracy. It's like a tapir teaching a falcon to fly. But when you've got a huge media apparatus supporting that narrative, of course many among the public would take it all, hook, line and sinker.

We're talking of that same Saudi Arabia, you know, the despotic theocracy where you'd end up being tortured and killed by the religious police without a trial for preaching a different religion, and where women have a status that puts them roughly somewhere between homo neanderthalensis and bos primigenius (i.e. cattle). That's the teacher in democracy that the Syrian rebels are striving to emulate, is it? Or Qatar, whose constitution is a complete mystery. The two Wahhabi states where Sharia is the law of the land - they're the driving factors behind the so called Syrian "revolution"? I'm really not sure which of the two should take the crown of the hypocrisy champion and which should settle for the silver.

But even so, the big loser from this game is already known. It's Syria, and the Syrian people. Because objective #1 has been already met. Almost the entire infrastructure of the country is destroyed now, and the "freedom fighters" that are constantly pouring into the country, are on par with the government's atrocities, if not much worse, blowing up factories and key administrative locations all over the place, and exterminating and intimidating the population of entire regions.

And the worst is that the sectarian card is now being played as well. This is a very strong trump card in the hands of the big geopolitical/business puppetmasters who can easily manipulate the relations in that region by skillfully using the religious factor. The tolerant, peaceful Syrian society which for many years had lived unshaken by all the religious clashes that were raging elsewhere, will now be haunted for generations by this. As it has happened in Iraq, from where 350,000 Christians sought refuge exactly in Syria (and for a reason), while the rest fled elsewhere, driven out by the radical groups in a country that was torn into three pieces (Shia, Sunni and Kurdish).

When you drive the car into the religious wheel-tracks, there's no coming out. The domino effect is set into motion, and the blocks begin to fall one after another, pushed by the unstoppable forces of vengeance, hatred and fear. And who wins from all this? Well, as we know, "Good business is best done in muddy waters".