Pass the baton

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

In the middle of his campaign for a 4th term, last year Hugo Chávez announced that he had defeated cancer, and had forgotten about the whole thing already. He then went on to win the election in October by 55%. But since then, his health has deteriorated drastically, and as we know, in the end of November he was transported to Cuba for treatment. He came back with a very different story from there, hinting that he could not just lose his power but also his life. In a TV address he confirmed that it was imperative that he should undergo a fourth surgery intervention because his cancer had come back.

Nowadays his true condition is practically a state secret in Venezuela, and no one really knows what type of cancer it really is, or any other details to that matter. The power circle around him are already preparing for the inevitable, and Nicolás Maduro (his foreign minister) is effectively the acting president (and is being tipped to succeed him on the presidential post). Maduro is now leading the United Socialist Party and will definitely be the front-runner on the next election, which is sure to come soon. Within 30 days after it's established that Chávez cannot perform his presidential duties, in fact. And the inauguration was supposed to happen tomorrow, but now it'll be postponed until further notice. Which tells a lot about what may be coming ahead for Venezuela.

The surgery was almost a month ago, but the speculations about his health condition still abound. He hasn't appeared in public ever since, and only scattered info trickles down to the public. Maduro himself admits that Chávez' situation is "complicated and delicate", although he did call the surgery "successful" and announced that the president is conscious and stabilised. But in some of the statements coming from various party leaders it's obvious that the situation is dire. The New Year celebrations were cancelled throughout Venezuela, and the thousands of Chávez claques kept re-tweeting things like "In 2012 I wept with Chávez, I loved Chávez, I voted Chávez, I laughed with Chávez and I prayed for Chávez. In 2013 I'll keep being alongside Chávez". Very touching indeed.

The new term is supposed to start on Jan 10, but obviously Chávez won't be available. His party are still refusing to give a clear date about possible election, while the pressure is mounting from the opposition. And there's of course a sense of hope for change in the regime, now that Chávez could be out of the game (for good?) Even if he lives, he'll hardly be in such a condition as to keep ruling. Hence the hope of the opposition that, come the next election, they'd have a real chance against Maduro. He's a former bus driver and union leader, and a close ally to the president ever since he came into Venezuelan politics. One of Maduro's key statements was "Even beyond this life, we'll still be loyal to Chávez". He lacks the charisma of his mentor, but he often likes to imitate his bombastic style and lampoon the "evil American imperialists" and the "bourgeois traitors" in hours-long speeches, the same way Chávez and Castro did. What's more, he enjoys Cuba's support. But he still remains a pale shadow of his boss.

Despite the terminal illness of its patron, Chavismo, this specific mixture of populist nationalism plus militarist conservatism plus hardline socialism, still hasn't lost its appeal among the Venezuelans. The heavy-hand approach to ruling and the intensive social policies of Dear Leader, mostly financed by the nationalised oil industry, have earned him lots of supporters from among the marginalised poor class. But they've also brought him an aura of a merciless dictator. Even without him, the ruling party easily won a landslide victory at the local election in mid December. The opposition only managed to hold its positions in 3 states, and was crushed in 20. Miranda, the wealthiest state, kept its governor Henrique Capriles who had been Chávez' latest presidential rival (44% at the last presidential election). So he's in a pretty good position to be tipped by the opposition on the next election as well, and face Maduro.

The big question now is, could Chavismo keep dominating Venezuelan politics without Chávez. His illness is not just a threat for one person, but for an entire system that's been built around his persona. The Economist recently cited some polls that hint that Capriles, who for the first time has managed to consolidate the fractured opposition, is far more popular than any of the potential candidates of the ruling party. And still, the fact that the president has personally picked up Maduro for his successor could level the field. Especially if we take in consideration the growing sympathies for his party, because of Chávez' personal tragedy. That's why the moment is extremely important for Capriles and the opposition, and the final outcome will largely depend on the way they'll handle the situation.

In their analyses, many experts conclude that the opposition forces will probably approach a possible second attempt at the presidency from a weaker starting position, since Capriles has previously lost this battle once. It'll be a major challenge for them to even appear as a united bloc on the coming election. So Maduro is still the front-runner in a race that hasn't even begun yet.

Chavism is probably able to survive even without Chávez, because it seems it's already deeply rooted into the very structure of the state, in all the institutions of power, particularly the military. In the short-term, the Chavist forces will certainly remain united. In a longer term, there's the example of Peronism which successfully outlived Juan Perón in Argentina. And no doubt, whether dead or alive, Chávez will keep casting his long shadow over Venezuelan politics for years to come.

And still, his absence will inevitably shake up the country, and promise a thorny transition, and a period of political instability and economic and social uncertainty. The effects on the international front will probably be a weakened leftist wave in Latin America, and a somewhat quieter voice of the "anti-imperialist bloc" that's aiming to curb the US geopolitical influence in the Western hemisphere. It's no surprise that Chávez' condition is being closely followed by countries like Cuba and Bolivia, who are hugely dependent on the constant subsidies, oil deliveries and other forms of aid from Venezuela for sustaining their fragile economies.

But whoever the next ruler of Venezuela might be, they're up for some hard economic decisions. The government has already increased public spending to levels that are hardly sustainable. The economy, which has registered 5% growth levels last year (a process that has its downsides), will probably be slowing down in the next months, and inflation will exceed its present 18% levels. Meanwhile, Chávez and his finance experts have dismissed the expectations for devaluing the national currency, which could help cut the budget deficit (currently ~15% of the GDP). Besides, Venezuela is having serious problems with rising crime, crumbling infrastructure, rampant corruption, the dominant black market and the dysfunctional health care system.

If Maduro comes to power, his primary task will be to protect Chavismo from internal disintegration, and prevent self-destructive power struggles that could disrupt the regime. So far Chávez alone has managed to achieve all that, solely relying on his personal authority. But that'll be much harder for Maduro. He's a civilian who'll have to keep the national armed forces in check, an institution that Chávez has turned into the military wing of the ruling party. As a representative of the radical left, Maduro will be having constant frictions with the pragmatic wing, among them some of the most influential military officers and the newly forged industrial tzars who currently form the foundation of the regime.

In turn, if Capriles wins the presidency, he'll have to hold the fractured opposition in one piece, and that won't be an easy task either. It consists of over 30 parties on the right, forming the so-called Democratic Unity Roundtable. Many of them have very divergent opinions about who should be ruling and how, and such a regime would be very unstable, too.

For the time being though, all eyes are still on the sickbed in Havana. Chávez has shown time and time again that he's a survivor, so we shouldn't rule out the unlikely scenario of his return, either.

Comments

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

This should be very interesting. I suspect that US involvement behind the scenes might be a big factor here, as the USA is hardly going to avoid the chance to tighten its shackles around its fourth biggest oil supplier here.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Maybe the US will just wait to see who'll win the election, and if it's not the guy they like, they'll sponsor another coup attempt like the last time.

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

That's such an un-American thing to say!

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Indeed, it is.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

It is indeed. The Old-America would have just invaded at this point and occupied the country five times in two years. ;)

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

So, talking about sponsoring coups is un-American, but actually plotting coups is not.

[cill-ros.livejournal.com]

I think this is pretty much guaranteed to happen.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

I doubt the USA would risk another embarrassment in the event that the coup attempt fails. I think it'd be more like giving a great deal of foreign donations to the opposition that enable it to conduct a better and more efficient propaganda campaign than it should have been able to do on its own.

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

What did the US do to sponsor a coup last time?

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Not sure if serious (http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27077.htm).

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Well, it's not like there weren't some extensive contacts (http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/16/world/bush-officials-met-with-venezuelans-who-ousted-leader.html) between the Bush administration and the guys who staged the coup against Chávez.

More context (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt#U.S._involvement).

Broader context: the US involvement in coups all across the Americas throughout the past half a century.

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

Why? Nobody else has the capabilities to refine Venezuela's heavy oil and Venezuela owns a huge distribution network in the US. They have a 15% deficit and 18% inflation rate (officially, unofficially it is likely much higher) and a government whose legitimacy is based on distributing the profits of oil sales. The US could not come up with a better way of shackling Venezuela than Chavez has.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Brazil is becoming the main consumer of Venezuelan oil, and no, there are others with refining capabilities who'd be more than glad to step in, like France, Britain, the Netherlands, etc. It's a globalised industry, after all.

As for the regime's legitimacy resting upon its natural resources, there's a vast list of other examples of a similar case, like Russia and the entire Middle East, which the US doesn't seem to have a problem trading with. Some of them are even doing efforts to move beyond being a one-trick-pony sort of economy (Dubai, Qatar, etc), so Venezuela's future largely depends on the availability of smart leaders with insight about the further development of the world.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Bottom-line is: the US needs this oil supplier; the US wants the obstacle that is a powerful leftist regime removed. 'Nuff said.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

The sinister hand of Uncle Sam may have been at play already. There are ways to induce cancer artificially.

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

Or maybe whatever god it is than Glenn Beck (or Pat Robertson, or whoever) prays to is starting to take down some of these "evil socialist" leaders. Or maybe it's a secret CIA plot injecting cancer cells. It must be some kind of U.S. conspiracy...just sayin'

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

The lack of evidence is indeed proof that the CIA is involved, who else could cover their tracks so well?

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

While the CIA may not be involved with Chávez' illness itself (ha. ha.), they do keep a close eye on the regime, especially in this key moment for Venezuela. Which can't be a bad thing, after all, especially compared to their more active involvement in the coup from a few years back.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

They days of exploding cigars are not too far in the Company's past.

[byshmen.livejournal.com]

Chavez helped to free Latin America from the capitalist shit. God forbid her to be there again!

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Let me guess. You're Russian?

[byshmen.livejournal.com]

Hmmm ... voobscheto Jew ... look bad?

[brother-dour.livejournal.com]

He's not dead yet?

Then again, it wasn't Hugo Chavez that killed democracy in Venezuela, but the people of Venezuela who did it. Tell me again how there's something wrong with our Constitution because it's so damned hard to amend?

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Your Constitution is so blindingly awesome, I need three pairs of sunglasses put on top of each other in order to read it.

[brother-dour.livejournal.com]

Well, it does have limitations. Like, for example, there's no way voters can vote their rights away to the executive branch and turn their elected president into a petty dictator...