On matters antipodean.
17/12/12 11:39![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsIt seems there are more and more Aussies coming out of the woodwork 'round these parts these days, so it seems appropriate to start having a discussion about our election that will be coming up in the next 9 months or so.
Latest polling figures
The narrative is that the Coalition are a shoe in next year, perhaps in a landslide. Indeed, the Two Party Preferred numbers seem to suggest this. Added to that is the ALPs big problems in Western Sydney that mean they are going to need well over 50% of the vote to form government.
However, Australia's political landscape has become increasingly presidential. Our elections are now about the leaders, not the parties, and Abbott is getting increasingly on the nose. It seems that the attacks on Gillard may have peaked early, and the electorate is increasingly over the hatred and vitriol directed at the PM. This has been the oppositions big weapon for the term of this parliament; they have been playing the man (or woman, as it were).
In the meantime they have made no real attempt to present an alternative government, aside from saying "we are the alternative government". There is barely a single policy on the table, and that's to be expected, it's not the oppositions job to present policies until election time. But what happens when they do? No doubt they will go hard on the carbon tax; an issue that Australians went from being in support of in record numbers, to being totally opposed, to now not really caring because it turns out to have not really had an impact on our lives, and most of us want to be doing something about climate change. Whether or not that is something effective is secondary. The carbon tax lets us feel good without having to pay for it, so it will likely be at best neutral for the Libs. Ditto the mining tax, rather than being the destroyer of all things Australian, it turns out to be a bit of a nothing, so that will have little bite with the suburban "battlers".
The opposition don't seem to be interested in opposing the National Disability Insurance Scheme, because that's a vote winner for the ALP, the question is, how do they neutralise it? They will get on board, but then they have to say how they will pay for it. Which comes to the crux. When the policies do get announced they are going to be uncosted (again), because all the things they oppose will reduce the tax base; the very tax base that is paying for all the things that people want. Ultimately, they are going to have to release their industrial relations policy, which no matter what it actually says, Labor will be able to tar with the Workchoices brush.
In the end, however, I think it's going to come down to a teenage popularity contest. And this is where the Libs are in trouble. Abbott has an image problem, largely because he is an unlikeable person. Not that Gillard is a likeable person, but Abbott comes across as a vicious, self-serving narcissist. The events of the last week with James Ashby are going to hurt them deeply, after six months of arguing over the non-issue of Gillards alleged misdeeds in the 90s they have set the agenda on personal integrity. Now the ALP have the beautiful soundbite of a "conspiracy to change the government" coming from the mouth of a judge. Whether the ALP can manage to get this message of the Libs being an immoral group of gangsters hell bent on power at all costs with no actual plan for running the country is the big thing; if it's one thing that the ALP under Gillard represents is the inability to manage a message.
The polls are bad for the ALP right now, but when election season gets into full swing and the choice comes down to a scary woman with an annoying voice versus an megalomaniac with destructive tendencies "the narrowing" will be on.
ETA question: Is Turnbull crunching his numbers this week? My guess is a yes.
Latest polling figures
The narrative is that the Coalition are a shoe in next year, perhaps in a landslide. Indeed, the Two Party Preferred numbers seem to suggest this. Added to that is the ALPs big problems in Western Sydney that mean they are going to need well over 50% of the vote to form government.
However, Australia's political landscape has become increasingly presidential. Our elections are now about the leaders, not the parties, and Abbott is getting increasingly on the nose. It seems that the attacks on Gillard may have peaked early, and the electorate is increasingly over the hatred and vitriol directed at the PM. This has been the oppositions big weapon for the term of this parliament; they have been playing the man (or woman, as it were).
In the meantime they have made no real attempt to present an alternative government, aside from saying "we are the alternative government". There is barely a single policy on the table, and that's to be expected, it's not the oppositions job to present policies until election time. But what happens when they do? No doubt they will go hard on the carbon tax; an issue that Australians went from being in support of in record numbers, to being totally opposed, to now not really caring because it turns out to have not really had an impact on our lives, and most of us want to be doing something about climate change. Whether or not that is something effective is secondary. The carbon tax lets us feel good without having to pay for it, so it will likely be at best neutral for the Libs. Ditto the mining tax, rather than being the destroyer of all things Australian, it turns out to be a bit of a nothing, so that will have little bite with the suburban "battlers".
The opposition don't seem to be interested in opposing the National Disability Insurance Scheme, because that's a vote winner for the ALP, the question is, how do they neutralise it? They will get on board, but then they have to say how they will pay for it. Which comes to the crux. When the policies do get announced they are going to be uncosted (again), because all the things they oppose will reduce the tax base; the very tax base that is paying for all the things that people want. Ultimately, they are going to have to release their industrial relations policy, which no matter what it actually says, Labor will be able to tar with the Workchoices brush.
In the end, however, I think it's going to come down to a teenage popularity contest. And this is where the Libs are in trouble. Abbott has an image problem, largely because he is an unlikeable person. Not that Gillard is a likeable person, but Abbott comes across as a vicious, self-serving narcissist. The events of the last week with James Ashby are going to hurt them deeply, after six months of arguing over the non-issue of Gillards alleged misdeeds in the 90s they have set the agenda on personal integrity. Now the ALP have the beautiful soundbite of a "conspiracy to change the government" coming from the mouth of a judge. Whether the ALP can manage to get this message of the Libs being an immoral group of gangsters hell bent on power at all costs with no actual plan for running the country is the big thing; if it's one thing that the ALP under Gillard represents is the inability to manage a message.
The polls are bad for the ALP right now, but when election season gets into full swing and the choice comes down to a scary woman with an annoying voice versus an megalomaniac with destructive tendencies "the narrowing" will be on.
ETA question: Is Turnbull crunching his numbers this week? My guess is a yes.
(no subject)
Date: 17/12/12 03:40 (UTC)Do you hear much about CN in other states? His axe weilding policies are popular with a certain section of the community, but for the most part he's pissed off too many people to be loved or even liked here in Qld.
(no subject)
Date: 17/12/12 05:19 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 17/12/12 05:30 (UTC)The ALPs big problem is going to be Western Sydney, there are a lot of seats there that react to "TURN BACK THE BOATS". No matter how much they go to the right on the issue of refugees, the Libs can always stay just to the right of them because, unfortunately, "blow them out of the water" is a popular solution amongst large parts of Australian society.
Abbott is the most disliked opposition leader since Peacock in '84, not even 50% of Liberals like him.
I don't think we've heard the end of the Ashby case, this just isn't the time to push that message, most people have turned off the news for the year. There are some procedural things still to happen (Ashby is seeking leave to appeal, which even if it's denied probably won't happen til next year) and you can bet that the ALP dirt unit will be holding off on some tasty little items for the new year. I think this will be the defining issue of the first month of political news next year. Whilst I don't like this dirty politics that detracts from actual issues, if the media can get 6 months out of the AWU non-issue then if they don't get a month out of this then it is pretty clear that they are in the pocket of the right (well, it's pretty clear already, but it means that the ALP can make a lot more noise attacking the papers).
I think it is going to be very close and will ultimately come down to some things that haven't happened yet.
RE: Turnbull, I wouldn't vote for him, but I'm to the left of the ALP, but I hope against hope that the Libs move in his direction. I can't abide small government right wingers as long as they are also small l liberals.
(no subject)
Date: 17/12/12 05:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 17/12/12 12:29 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/12/12 01:31 (UTC)There is a lot of talk about the public broadcasters having a left-wing bias, and they maybe do a little bit, but it's pretty easy to look like you have a left-wing bias when the overwhelming majority of news outlets are essentially Fox News. A great example is there was an OECD report out on the weekend saying how well our government is doing at running the economy, with some suggestions on things that could be improved, the non-Murdoch outlets all gave it coverage, the Murdoch press either didn't cover it or had a small article that only mentioned the criticisms. Most of our politics this year has been taken up "investigating" dodgy deals done by the PM when she was a lawyer back in the 90s. This was entirely led and fed by Murdoch press, with the other outlets only getting on to it when it was looking like bias because they didn't have an article on it everyday. This took up over a week of question time in parliament and was addressed in two press conferences by the PM that only ended when the journos stop asking questions. In the end they've found that she put the wrong date on a statutory declaration. It looks dodgy, it may have been dodgy, but there's no "news" there. In the meantime a conservative staffer made up sexual harassment and misappropriation of funds claims against a member of parliament that have been thrown out of court because the judge said they were an abuse of process intended to change the government and they were in the news for a day.