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talkpoliticsTo be honest I've never been a big fan of alternate history. It seems to me that actual moments where history truly "hangs in the balance" are staggeringly few and far between. Sure the details may be subject to change but the broad strokes history tend to be set in stone long before the participants take the stage. The kind of stories where the 3rd Reich wins WWII always reminded me of the sort of bad slash-fiction where Ron Weasly becomes a Death-Eater.
That said, what-if stories do occasionally make for some delicious mind candy.
This picture was taken 40 years ago today. The man in the suit is Eugene Cernan, the last human being to set foot on another celestial body....
In 1968 NASA reached a cross-roads. The Apollo program was about to make good on JFK's promise and there was serious debate both in Congress and within NASA itself about the Agency's Post-Apollo future. The debators fell into two broad camps, those who assumed that NASA's budget would grow in the wake of the moon landings (or at least remain the same), and those who assumed that it would shrink.
As a massive space enthusiast President Johnson had encouraged NASA administrator Thomas O. Paine to dream big, but when Richard Nixon was sworn in as President in January of 1969, he became a Democrat in a Republican administration. Paine submitted his resignation, but the Nixon Administration asked him to stay on. Some have since theorized that he was kept on as a patsy should the Kennedy/Johnson-backed Apollo program fail.
However, the "Optimists" in NASA never got that memo. Despite being informed by the Nixon Administration that NASA’s budget would be capped at $3.5 billion. Paine, continued to request ever larger budgets (4.5 billion for f.y. 71, 9 billion for f.y. 72) and seemed to base his plans for NASA's future on the assumption that he would get them. Nixon was not amused, NASA lost what little goodwill it still had with the Administration.
Now lets play "what if?"
What if in 1969 Nixon had accepted Paine's resignation and put someone from NASA's realist/pessimist faction in charge? Nixon would eventually replace Paine with James C. Fletcher so lets just say that Fletcher gets the job early. This leads to an alternate timeline wherein NASA and the Nixon Administration are able reach an amiable compromise on NASA's future. The deal with Nixon involves steady funding of 3.2 billion dollars (a 15% cut compared Johnson era levels but more than the 2.9 they got in our timeline) on the condition that NASA starts providing more immediate political and economic benefits.
Fletcher was a strong proponent of robotic exploration, and one of the lead administrators of the Apollo Applications Program (AAP). So in October of 71 after declaring Apollo 15 the most successful manned flight ever achieved. Fletcher announces that NASA Astronauts will not be returning to the moon. The Saturn 5 rockets that have already been built to launch Apollos 16, 17, 18, and 19 will instead be used to launch a series of four space stations into Low and High Earth orbit. Crew and supplies would be delivered to the stations by Apollo CSMs. The assembly lines that were dismantled in our timeline would stay in place (Yay for Jobs!) but at a reduced production rate.
(A similar plan was submitted in our own timeline but with Paine in charge it never got anywhere)
These along with being scientific platforms these stations would act as test-beds for several technologies that in 1970 are just beginning to be developed. Satellite-based Communications, Surveillance, and Navigation (GPS) reach maturity much earlier in this timeline, fulfilling Fletcher's promise to provide economic benefits.
At the superpower summit in Moscow in May 1972, President Nixon and Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin sign an agreement allowing Russian Spacecraft to dock with the American Stations. (analogous to the Apollo Soyuz Test Project in our timeline) Nixon also surprises the agency by telling reporters shortly after the launch of Skylab I in 1973 that women and minorities would live and work on board the Space Stations. The agency also announces a plan to fly educators, a reporters, and possibly other non-astronaut space travelers on “Visitor” missions to the Space Stations.
Without the financial and political pressure of developing the space shuttle NASA instead focuses on incremental upgrades to spacecraft/launchers and expansion of it's automated science missions. The End result being a much higher density of flights and expanded access to space despite the initial cuts.
That said, what-if stories do occasionally make for some delicious mind candy.
This picture was taken 40 years ago today. The man in the suit is Eugene Cernan, the last human being to set foot on another celestial body....
In 1968 NASA reached a cross-roads. The Apollo program was about to make good on JFK's promise and there was serious debate both in Congress and within NASA itself about the Agency's Post-Apollo future. The debators fell into two broad camps, those who assumed that NASA's budget would grow in the wake of the moon landings (or at least remain the same), and those who assumed that it would shrink.
As a massive space enthusiast President Johnson had encouraged NASA administrator Thomas O. Paine to dream big, but when Richard Nixon was sworn in as President in January of 1969, he became a Democrat in a Republican administration. Paine submitted his resignation, but the Nixon Administration asked him to stay on. Some have since theorized that he was kept on as a patsy should the Kennedy/Johnson-backed Apollo program fail.
However, the "Optimists" in NASA never got that memo. Despite being informed by the Nixon Administration that NASA’s budget would be capped at $3.5 billion. Paine, continued to request ever larger budgets (4.5 billion for f.y. 71, 9 billion for f.y. 72) and seemed to base his plans for NASA's future on the assumption that he would get them. Nixon was not amused, NASA lost what little goodwill it still had with the Administration.
Now lets play "what if?"
What if in 1969 Nixon had accepted Paine's resignation and put someone from NASA's realist/pessimist faction in charge? Nixon would eventually replace Paine with James C. Fletcher so lets just say that Fletcher gets the job early. This leads to an alternate timeline wherein NASA and the Nixon Administration are able reach an amiable compromise on NASA's future. The deal with Nixon involves steady funding of 3.2 billion dollars (a 15% cut compared Johnson era levels but more than the 2.9 they got in our timeline) on the condition that NASA starts providing more immediate political and economic benefits.
Fletcher was a strong proponent of robotic exploration, and one of the lead administrators of the Apollo Applications Program (AAP). So in October of 71 after declaring Apollo 15 the most successful manned flight ever achieved. Fletcher announces that NASA Astronauts will not be returning to the moon. The Saturn 5 rockets that have already been built to launch Apollos 16, 17, 18, and 19 will instead be used to launch a series of four space stations into Low and High Earth orbit. Crew and supplies would be delivered to the stations by Apollo CSMs. The assembly lines that were dismantled in our timeline would stay in place (Yay for Jobs!) but at a reduced production rate.
(A similar plan was submitted in our own timeline but with Paine in charge it never got anywhere)
These along with being scientific platforms these stations would act as test-beds for several technologies that in 1970 are just beginning to be developed. Satellite-based Communications, Surveillance, and Navigation (GPS) reach maturity much earlier in this timeline, fulfilling Fletcher's promise to provide economic benefits.
At the superpower summit in Moscow in May 1972, President Nixon and Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin sign an agreement allowing Russian Spacecraft to dock with the American Stations. (analogous to the Apollo Soyuz Test Project in our timeline) Nixon also surprises the agency by telling reporters shortly after the launch of Skylab I in 1973 that women and minorities would live and work on board the Space Stations. The agency also announces a plan to fly educators, a reporters, and possibly other non-astronaut space travelers on “Visitor” missions to the Space Stations.
Without the financial and political pressure of developing the space shuttle NASA instead focuses on incremental upgrades to spacecraft/launchers and expansion of it's automated science missions. The End result being a much higher density of flights and expanded access to space despite the initial cuts.
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 02:06 (UTC)There's a kitten in my helmet!
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 03:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 08:00 (UTC)It's the economic obstacles (notably the shear scale of effort involved) that hold us back.
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 15:15 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 18:48 (UTC)The engineering and construction principals are well understood. Closed loop life support has been demonstrated in a laboratory setting but becomes unnecessary if you have a local source of water and nitrates. The biggest (and least understood concerns) are the long term bio-medical effects of low gravity. That said the most dangerous effects that we know of (Bone-loss and muscle atrophy) are eliminated by the simple expedient of not returning to Earth.
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 23:06 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 23:34 (UTC)While certainly a tall order it's hardly beyond the bounds of current understanding.
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 04:47 (UTC)GPS is also problematic, if the timeline included getting it up and running earlier. The computational power for fixing position based on the signals just wasn't there for the receivers, at least not for non-classified (and ball-sucking expensive) guided stuff. It was available and working for naval ships and some missiles in the '80s, but naval personnel I've talked to were still required to plot courses with Loran (a shore-based directional transmitter system). I doubt their would have been early adoption without Moore's Law first running its necessary course.
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 07:52 (UTC)I'm not so sure about that. With a larger more robust orbital infrastructure in place minuturization of the hardware becomes less important. In our timeline NASA tested the first prototype GPS satellites and recievers in 1972. With the reduced competition for funding and added launch windows I'd say it's fair to move the date of GPS "going live" up by a few years.
Likewise there were many delays and outright cancelations of robotic probes and other scientific missions caused by the need to spend time and money fixing issues with the shuttle. In this timeline Voyagers 1 and 2 are followed by 3 - 6 as orginally planned and in all likelyhood we get the Hubble Telescope and JPL Advanced Planetary Probes (Magellan, Galileo, and Cassini) 10 years early because there's no Challenger incident.
The real questions in this timeline are; How does 20+ years of vastly lower launch costs effect the commercial satellite market? and What happens in 89 when the Soviet Union collapses?
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 08:40 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 12:30 (UTC)I have a problem with this unrealistic expectation of science. Imagine if someone imposed this sort of requirement on the LHC.
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 18:17 (UTC)The deal described is not without historical precident, the "what if" factor is essentially "what if in 1969, NASA's Administrator had been inclined to accept a deal instead of trying to stare-down Richard Nixon?".
I imagine that an Apollo Applications/Utilization program that was fully funded (rather than canceled as it was in our timeline) coupled with no "Launch Gap" in the late 70s would lead to Satellite Communications and Navigation becoming available much earlier than they did in our timeline. This in turn leads to the communications and information revolutions and the myriad social and economic ripple effects thereof occurring 5 - 10 years early.
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 22:43 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 13:00 (UTC)"Here's my friend Mike -- he's a Green Beret."
"Oh, really? This is President Obama, the first black President of the United States and the most powerful man on Earth."
"Cool. This is Gene. Gene is the last human being to walk on the moon."
Game over.
(no subject)
Date: 14/12/12 18:17 (UTC)