[identity profile] telemann.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics






NBC News projects the Republican Party will retain control of the House.
NBC News projects President Obama will be re-elected as of 11:30 PM.





Be sure to vote! If you aren't sure what the legal requirements are to vote, or when the polls close,you can use this chart below. California polls will not close until 12 midnight on the East coast.







Here is your ultimate guide to watching the elections online below:





Ezra Klein , Washington Post.
Jeff Greenfield, PBS.
Tom Brokaw, NBC News.
John Heilemann, New York Magazine.
Rachel Maddow , MSNBC.
Doris Kearns Goodwin, presidential historian and author.
Sean Hannity, Fox News
Bill Maher, HBO
David Brooks New York Times
Politifact, Tampa Bay Times.
Jay Carney, White House Press Secretary.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz, DNC Chairwoman.
Reince Priebus, RNC Chairman.
David Axelrod, Former Senior Advisor to President Barack Obama.
Eric Fehrnstrom, Senior Romney campaign adviser.




1. California and the death penalty. Proposition 34 would end the state's costly and inefficient experiment with capital punishment and transform all existing death penalties (725 in all) into life sentences without the possibility of parole.

2. Marijuana. Voters in six states will be voting on marijuana initiatives. In Arkansas and Masschusetts, voters will decide whether to legalize, regulate, and tax medical marijuana. In  Montana, voters will decide whether to repeal their 2004 medical-marijuana initiative. And in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon, voters will decide whether to legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana. Of the latter contests, the Colorado measure, Amendment 64, appears to have the best chance of passage. None of these measures is technically legal under federal law but the Obama Administration went on the record recently, in a 60 Minutes segment, pledging not to harass individual users.

3. Same-Sex Marriage. Voters in four states** -- Maryland, Minnesota, Maine and Washington -- will vote on same-sex marriage initiatives. In Maine, the vote is to overturn or ratify a 2009 measure that outlawed same-sex marriage. In Maryland, the vote is to affirm or reject a new law permitting same-sex marriage. And in Washington, the vote is to endorse or preclude a similar new law.

4. Sheriff Joe Arpaio. The most infamous lawman in America -- and longstanding sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona -- is heading toward yet another reelection victory. This despite a series of recent political scandals, costly litigation and allegations of fiscal mismanagement.

5. Judiciary. In four states closely aligned with Tea Party sentiment -- Arizona, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Florida-- conservative activists seek through ballot measures to limit judicial authority and independence through a series of partisan initiatives. The most blatant of these efforts is in Florida, where Americans for Prosperity, the Koch brothers-sponsored group, is seeking to remove three justices of the Florida Supreme Court. Millions have been spent on that race alone. Follow William Raftery's Gavel To Gavel blog on election night if you want the play-by-play. Here is his list of all judiciary-related amendments.

6. Alabama segregation. For the second time in eight years, voters in Alabama will have an opportunity to delete from their state constitution an explicit reference to racial segregation in public schools. The language currently on the books, a vestige of the state's dubious history of interposition, states:

To avoid confusion and disorder and to promote effective and economical planning for education, the legislature may authorize the parents or guardians of minors, who desire that such minors shall attend schools provided for their own race, to make election to that end, such election to be effective for such period and to such extent as the legislature may provide.
It seems simple. But it's not. Many Democrats and school administrators believe the initiative would make matters worse. And speaking of which, Alabama voters will get a chance again on Tuesday to choose or reject for the judiciary Roy Moore, the infamous former state supreme court justice who once defied a federal court order forcing him to remove the Ten Commandments monument he had ordered built at the state's supreme court.

7. Abortion. In Florida, voters will confront Amendment 6, a measure that seeks to limit interpretation of the privacy rights contained in the state's constitution. In Montana, voters face LR-120, which involves parental-notification rules. In Oklahoma, a "personhood" measure that would have criminalized abortion was rejected as unconstitutional by the state's supreme court before it could make it onto the ballot. In case you were wondering, following a campaign where abortion and reproductive rights were issues, this isn't much different than 2010, when there were also three similiar measures (in Alaska, Colorado, and Missouri).

8. Health Care. Silly you, you thought the Supreme Court's decision in June to uphold the Affordable Care Act meant the end of legal challenges to the federal health care law. Wrong. New litigation has been filed. And voters in five states -- Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Montana and Wyoming -- will have the opportunity on Tuesday to weigh in with their views of the obligations contained in the Care Act. The gist of each of these measures is made clear in the simple language of Wyoming's proposed Amendment A:

The adoption of this amendment will provide that the right to make health care decisions is reserved to the citizens of the state of Wyoming. It permits any person to pay and any health care provider to receive direct payment for services

9. Three-strikes. Back to California for Proposition 36, which would reduce the scope of the state's notorious three-strikes law in an effort to clear overcrowded prisons there of more non-violent offenders. Like Proposition 34, the popularity of this initiative is owed perhaps as much to the budget savings the state would see from it as it is from the fact that the existing "three-strikes" law has resulted in terrible injustice to some Californians. If it passes -- and it was up in the polls the last time I checked -- it will be the clearest signal yet that states are serious about adjusting their views of the harsh costs of our prison society.

10. Death with dignity. Voters in Massachusetts face Question 2, which upon approval would mean a new state law "allowing a physician licensed in Massachusetts to prescribe medication, at the request of a terminally-ill patient meeting certain conditions, to end that person's life." The measure has been consistently in front in polling although its margin has slipped in the past few weeks. It's an important moment for supporters of a "right to die." It's been long enough for them to have comforting research on how Oregon's landmark law has worked. But they've struggled to translate that information into legislative success.

Source. The Atlantic.







Many thanks to Mr. [livejournal.com profile] weswilson who mentioned this. Great, great stuff.





When Republicans Were Blue and Democrats Were Red



We take the visual maps used all over the Internet and TV for granted. But that wasn't always the case. Prior to 1976, it was a pretty boring visual experience. For the Bicentennial election, NBC News anchor John Chancellor developed the idea for a super sized map that would change colors as a state was declared for one candidate. But at that time, Blue was used for Republicans, and red was used for Democratic candidates. Why? Mr. Chancellor and the director of election coverage at NBC Roy Wetzel, decided to use the British color system: “Without giving it a second thought, we said blue for conservatives, because that’s what the parliamentary system in London is, red for the more liberal party. And that settled it. We just did it,” said Wetzel, now retired.

Source: Smithsonian Magazine.
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(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 20:29 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
All those maps & charts & stats & links...... OMGZ I THINK I JUST JIZZED A LITTLE!

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 20:30 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fizzyland.livejournal.com
Your use of graphics is always so classy and tasteful.
Image

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 20:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
You mean eleeteest!

*runs back into hiding*

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Date: 6/11/12 20:35 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] curseangel.livejournal.com
Cautiously optimistic over here.

But the Republican's organized voter fraud, disenfranchisement and intimidation is kind of worrying, I have to admit. The GOP: They're the best at being the worst!

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 22:36 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com
Group home accused of taking patients to vote for Obama (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/05/group-home-accused-taking-patients-to-vote-for-obama-as-agency-disputes-claim/#ixzz2BU5b5k97)

What could possibly go wrong? (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/05/cuomo-signs-order-allowing-sandy-victims-to-vote-anywhere/)

Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown on Ballot tampering (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/oregon-elections-worker-fired-after-allegations-ballot-tampering/) NOTE: This is at least one confirmed case where the fraud is by Republicans.

Funny business in Philly: GOP officials booted, Black Panthers return (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/judge-issuing-order-to-reinstate-booted-philadelphia-election-officials/)

;)

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Date: 6/11/12 20:38 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Hey, they even had a TV debate over the US elections over here! On BG television, lolwut! Well OK, it only lasted for 40 mins, but still. It even featured a former president. Turns out we do care after all! Or at least 5 people did. Two of them journalists, but still.

Funnily, one politologist was trying to convince the audience how in the US there's no real choice, the only choice is between an outright leftist option and a concealed center-left option disguised as a rightist, and how there's no real right in the US. This, coming from someone who had lived a good chunk of their life under actual communism. WTF.

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 21:13 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
the only choice is between an outright leftist option and a concealed center-left option disguised as a rightist,

Image
Edited Date: 6/11/12 21:13 (UTC)

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Date: 6/11/12 20:43 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
Image

alt text: The choices we make Tuesday could have MASSIVE and PERMANENT effects on the charts on Nate Silver's blog!

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 20:50 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
TONIGHT WILL BE HUGE! HUGE!!! (http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bvkK)

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 21:16 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
this is what I'm betting on. (http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bvxt)

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Date: 6/11/12 20:54 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
Thank God the Never-Ending Story is finally going to be over.

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 21:22 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
the House election races for 2014 start tomorrow. And I'll bet you a five pound bag of salt that there is at least one credible GOP candidate and one credible Dem candidate declared within 365 days.

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Date: 6/11/12 21:14 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yes-justice.livejournal.com
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html



Image
Edited Date: 6/11/12 21:35 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 22:13 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
But srsly. Whichever mouthpiece of the ruling oligarchy the people pick up, we'll be watching with tremendous interest how he'd deal with some minor problems (http://www.usdebtclock.org/) that may be looming ahead. Good luck my friends! ;)

(no subject)

Date: 7/11/12 03:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
Hey, we get to pick the mouthpiece for the ruling oligarchy. Don't take that away from us, it's what makes our country great!

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 22:16 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rimpala.livejournal.com
Let the gloating/whining begin!

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 22:20 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
wait, there's no MSNBC feed? WHAT ABOUT THE TINGLE UP MY LEG???

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 22:20 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com
Putting the "circus" in "bread and circuses".

Image

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 22:22 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
There's bread? Where?

Is there wine?

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Date: 6/11/12 22:21 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
It might still be close:

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 22:32 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
The hacker in me sniggers.

The rest of me slaps him across the wrist.

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Date: 6/11/12 22:54 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kayjayuu.livejournal.com
#2, Marijuana -- just a point, it would have been on the ballot in North Dakota (Medical Marijuana) except for the stupidity of greedy college football players, who instead of asking people to sign something asking to put the initiative on the ballot, took names out of the phone book and turned them in for pay.

Tossed out. One player charged with a misdemeanor, none of them kicked off the team. Because we have a championship to defend. F*ers.

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 23:19 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] politikitty.livejournal.com
The actual election results will be rather boring and I don't expect any huge upsets.

But I'm curious to see how the exit polls reflect the increasing change in our demographics. I'm expecting an uptick in the Hispanic turnout, and also a sizable shift in how Democratic they vote. The Republicans have basically decided to let that demographic go, which would have huge repercussions.

Eventually the Republicans are going to have to make a huge play in order to stay competitive at the national level. If they don't, there's going to be an even more painful long adjustment while conservatives try to find a banner to stand behind that doesn't have the unfortunate problem of constantly spewing rhetoric that sounds like they hate gays, blacks, women, hispanics, etc.

Remember when the Progressive Party was so successful, they were able to pass prohibition and almost enacted a host of eugenic proposals? I'd like it if there was a conservative party that was there to say "maybe we'll regret that policy". Democracy works best when we have competition, which means appealing to all of America. Not just the ten percent still pining for the days when peeing in a bucket might stop civil rights.

But how can they do that if they can't even say "maybe we'll regret giving a bully pulpit to folks spewing sexist nonsense, while trying to discuss abortion or heatlhcare, or racist nonsense, while trying to discuss immigration or poverty"?

And more importantly, I worry that the Party of the Voting Rights Act could easily go through the same transformation as the Party of Lincoln. Plenty of people did not change their party affiliation when that switch happened, and ended up voting against their ideological beliefs. I hope not to become one of those mismatched partisans.

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 23:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com
I'm expecting an uptick in the Hispanic turnout, and also a sizable shift in how Democratic they vote. The Republicans have basically decided to let that demographic go

Which is incredibly stupid of them when you consider just how socially conservative Latinos tend to be. But then again there must be a reason that they are refered to as the "Stupid Party" even by many conservatives.

Remember when the Progressive Party was so successful, they were able to pass prohibition and almost enacted a host of eugenic proposals? I'd like it if there was a conservative party that was there to say "maybe we'll regret that policy". Democracy works best when we have competition, which means appealing to all of America. Not just the ten percent still pining for the days when peeing in a bucket might stop civil rights.

I have often said that "I want a new left, this one is fucked", but a new right would be nice as well.

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 23:39 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
Check this out, I thought it was a pretty snazzy infographic:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/scenarios?smid=tw-share

(no subject)

Date: 6/11/12 23:58 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com
If Obama wins the election but loses the popular vote I will buy everyone on TP a drink.

You'll have to come to San Diego to collect but a deal is a deal!

(no subject)

Date: 7/11/12 00:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
By current polling I'd have to refuse your bet, but it will be close.

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Date: 7/11/12 00:14 (UTC)

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Date: 7/11/12 00:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
yay, I found an MSNBC feed!

(no subject)

Date: 7/11/12 01:33 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
DOWN GOES MCMAHON! DOWN GOES MCMAHON!

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Date: 7/11/12 01:52 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] retrofire.livejournal.com
Scott Pelley is wearing a blue pin stripe suit with a striped tie in tones of browns and yellows. He looks like a news clown.

(no subject)

Date: 7/11/12 01:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
What I want to know is how they call a state when there aren't even 50% of the precints in it reported.

(no subject)

Date: 7/11/12 01:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
because most states the results are a forgone conclusion. TX, CA, NY, etc.

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Date: 7/11/12 02:05 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
MI just called for Obama. WI and CO too close to call. TX called for Romney. NY called for Obama. LA called for Romney, KS Romney.

New Mexico called for Obama!

NE called for Romney, no word on the one congressional district.

(no subject)

Date: 7/11/12 02:43 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
where are you counting from? CNN.com still shows most of these as processing.

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(no subject)

Date: 7/11/12 02:05 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
AZ too early to call, Romney in the lead.
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