Elizabeth Warren is going to win

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

That's my prediction.
Wanna see why?

Polls Date Dem Rep Margin

PPP 10/16 53.0 44.0 Warren +9.0
PPP 10/11 50.0 44.0 Warren +6.0
YouGov 10/11 46.0 39.0 Warren +7.0
Rasmussen 10/10 49.0 47.0 Warren +2.0
YouGov 10/8 48.0 45.0 Warren +3.0

Courtesy of Nate Silver's 538 blog.
- http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I think this is a result of how Scott Brown was elected in the first place. His democratic opponent was so bad that democrats stayed home or flipped for one election. Elizabeth Warren is an icon for the left--Dems aren't going to stay home in November in Mass, nor will they be splitting their tickets, not in the numbers Scott Brown would need, it seems.

But hey, I'm going off some raw numbers posted on the internet. Maybe you, my filthy assistants co-denizens of the internet city, will provide some insight on what you think is gonna happen in the Elizabeth Warren vs Scott Brown race.

Can I/you/we make a tag: "predictions" and then we have a follow up tag "predictions false/correct" ?

Comments

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

Given the nasty campaign and posters of Warren with headdresses on, etc. I hope that Brown goes down in flames. The Tea Party was and is bad for America so it would be nice to see the House swing back into Democratic hands, though that's unlikely.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

agreed, tho this isn't the house of course...

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

There's also a poll from WBUR that has Brown +3 from 10/8, FWIW.

I think it's going to be a lot closer than what PPP is showing, but my confidence level for my Senator has dropped considerably in the last month. The Massachusetts Democrats have a spectacular ground game that really stepped up in late July and early August, and the MassGOP (who are beyond incompetent) are really only getting around to meeting this now. Brown is very well liked, perhaps moreso than he was when he was elected - Warren is benefiting from it being a presidential year and they've been fairly successful with the "this could flip the Senate" argument, which worked well for Brown when he ran with "the 41st vote" in the special.

I think the race unfortunately favors Warren right now, but I'd love to be wrong. I'll keep working to be wrong in the meantime.

[fizzyland.livejournal.com]

I'll keep working to be wrong in the meantime.

I'm sure you will ;)

[caerfrli.livejournal.com]

yeah, I wish everyone saying Obama had the house and senate for 2 years would remember ol' 41st vote Brown

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

The numbers are looking good for Obama as well, who has finally started trending upward after Romney's bump from the first debate.

[acesspadesdice.livejournal.com]

Well done working the numbers.