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talkpoliticsPutin to Extend Lease on Kyrgyz Base, Settle Debt During Visit
...and:
Russia extends Tajik base lease to curb militant threat
While the US are wondering how to make the most gracious exit from Afghanistan, Putin ain't sleeping. There's one rule in geopolitics: there can be no vacuum in international relations. Whenever someone budges in the Grand Chess game, another will soon fill the gap. So the players better be prepared for the next move, before it has even happened. Otherwise you're left on the sidelines.
The extension of the lease period for these military bases is aimed to ensure the Russian geopolitical presence in the Central Asian region. The US is cutting its involvement in that region, and considering "going home" (whether it's with its tail between its legs or not, depends on the POV). But like it or not, the one certain thing is that the geopolitical balance at the heart of Eurasia is again tilting back towards Russia. Oh, and China of course. But that's quite another story.
Putin has been crisscrossing Central Asia like crazy as of late. He visited Kyrgyzstan last month, and this month he again landed in the region, this time in Tajikistan. No surprise, neither visit has drawn much attention within the international community which seems to be preoccupied with other, more "interesting" issues, but that doesn't mean there already isn't a very noticeable change in the balance between the major players in Central Asia.
In their reports on the two visits (whenever existent), the world media was mostly focused on the new agreements between Putin and the leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to extend the lease periods of the Russian military bases. So let's see what happened in that respect. First in Kyrgyzstan, Putin signed an agreement with Atambayev to maintain a joint military base there. The deadline for building the base is 2017, and the initial lease period is 15 years, with an option for a 5-year extension. The base will include an airport, a testing facility, a communication hub and a seismic station. During his visit to Tajikistan, Putin met Rahmon and they signed a similar agreement to extend the lease period of the Russian base there for another 30 years. Again, in 2042 Russia will have an option to extend that by another 5 years. So what does all that mean? Well, Russia isn't going anywhere. It has ensured its presence in Central Asia for at least 20-30 years. And the bases are just the tip of the iceberg. As with anything Russian, it all goes way deeper.
Sure, things are changing rapidly throughout the Middle East and Africa, and Asia too. And meanwhile Russia is doing smart steps to counter the US inroads at the Eurasian heart. And, as we know from Brzezinski, that's the key to controlling Eurasia. Meanwhile, the US prospects on that front look rather gloomy. Granted, after 9-11 the US snatched the golden opportunity to get actively involved in the Central Asian region, to set up bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, as part of their effort to control Afghanistan. Looking back now, that effort has failed. The Taliban are still pretty much alive and well, and biding their time to get back into the country, once the US troops are out. China is becoming friends with Pakistan, while the latter is drifting further away from the US sphere of influence. India is asserting its status of an emerging economic power with increased geopolitical appetites. And Russia is pushing from the other side as well. As we know, it's mostly about the natural resources of the region, and access to the trade routes (oil and gas fields, pipelines, oil ports, etc). It's all about that. And the US is retreating, while Russia and China are actively stepping in.
During the Afghanistan war, the international public was notably fixated on the US efforts to strengthen its leading position in the region. But as is often the case with that region, the situation defies any prediction. In 2005 Uzbekistan decided to shut down the US military base, followed by Kyrgyzstan, who, under Russian pressure, also asked the US to leave. Despite the fact that the high price of the rent allowed the US to temporarily keep its military base in Manas, that option also turned out totally unreliable. During a joint press conference after the signing of the agreement with Kyrgyzstan, the president Atambayev again solemnly vowed that Kyrgyzstan will make the Americans leave the Manas base in 2014. And that they will very likely do, since the incredible cost of the US presence in Afghanistan is already costing Obama a lot. So he has approved the withdrawal of the US troops from the country. Once this happens, Manas will no longer be a viable option for the US either. And with that, the last remaining US outpost in Central Asia is gone.
Russia has been preparing for this development for quite some time, actually. Its goal is very clear: to be the leading factor in controlling the matters of defense and geopolitics in the Central Asian region. On one side, the US is going to either voluntarily leave or be "asked" to get out, and on the other side Russia is already eager to step back into the opening gap. Probably hurrying to get in there before the Chinese. Russia still has one advantage over the Chinese - it has already been there, and it has never slashed its links with the ruling elites of the region. Not to mention the Russian legacy in terms of cultural and economic influence, linguistic and ethnic presence, etc.
Putin said on that press conference in Bishkek that, in light of the withdrawal of the "international" coalition in 2014, the situation in Afghanistan is unlikely to change for the better, so the presence of Russian military components in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is to remain "an important factor for stability in the region". In Dushanbe, he reiterated that Russia's bases would provide "a reliable guarantee for a stronger security and stability in Central Asia".
Most analysts point out that two visits within a month is a strong signal for the future shape of the Central Asian geopolitical configuration. This means that the world powers have entered a new stage in the struggle for Central Asia. For Russia, which has a long-term strategic agenda in the region plus ambitions of a recovering great power, Central Asia will always be a key basis for re-asserting the central role in the Eurasian affairs, and hence becoming a major player on the world stage.
Eurasia is often called the "global island" among the geopolitics circles. And like I said, Central Asia is of course its heart. Halford Mackinder 9the author of the Heartland Theory) has famously said about a century ago that whoever controls the Eurasian core, controls Asia, and thus the whole world. And little seems to have changed since then. An often underestimated region of the world, which is not as scandalous, loud and noticeable as the Middle East, Central Asia remains the main scene where the scramble for domination over the whole eastern hemisphere is played out. And Russia would be suicidal if it were to quit it. So it won't. As for the US, they might not be having too many options in that respect right now.
...and:
Russia extends Tajik base lease to curb militant threat
While the US are wondering how to make the most gracious exit from Afghanistan, Putin ain't sleeping. There's one rule in geopolitics: there can be no vacuum in international relations. Whenever someone budges in the Grand Chess game, another will soon fill the gap. So the players better be prepared for the next move, before it has even happened. Otherwise you're left on the sidelines.
The extension of the lease period for these military bases is aimed to ensure the Russian geopolitical presence in the Central Asian region. The US is cutting its involvement in that region, and considering "going home" (whether it's with its tail between its legs or not, depends on the POV). But like it or not, the one certain thing is that the geopolitical balance at the heart of Eurasia is again tilting back towards Russia. Oh, and China of course. But that's quite another story.
Putin has been crisscrossing Central Asia like crazy as of late. He visited Kyrgyzstan last month, and this month he again landed in the region, this time in Tajikistan. No surprise, neither visit has drawn much attention within the international community which seems to be preoccupied with other, more "interesting" issues, but that doesn't mean there already isn't a very noticeable change in the balance between the major players in Central Asia.
In their reports on the two visits (whenever existent), the world media was mostly focused on the new agreements between Putin and the leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to extend the lease periods of the Russian military bases. So let's see what happened in that respect. First in Kyrgyzstan, Putin signed an agreement with Atambayev to maintain a joint military base there. The deadline for building the base is 2017, and the initial lease period is 15 years, with an option for a 5-year extension. The base will include an airport, a testing facility, a communication hub and a seismic station. During his visit to Tajikistan, Putin met Rahmon and they signed a similar agreement to extend the lease period of the Russian base there for another 30 years. Again, in 2042 Russia will have an option to extend that by another 5 years. So what does all that mean? Well, Russia isn't going anywhere. It has ensured its presence in Central Asia for at least 20-30 years. And the bases are just the tip of the iceberg. As with anything Russian, it all goes way deeper.
Sure, things are changing rapidly throughout the Middle East and Africa, and Asia too. And meanwhile Russia is doing smart steps to counter the US inroads at the Eurasian heart. And, as we know from Brzezinski, that's the key to controlling Eurasia. Meanwhile, the US prospects on that front look rather gloomy. Granted, after 9-11 the US snatched the golden opportunity to get actively involved in the Central Asian region, to set up bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, as part of their effort to control Afghanistan. Looking back now, that effort has failed. The Taliban are still pretty much alive and well, and biding their time to get back into the country, once the US troops are out. China is becoming friends with Pakistan, while the latter is drifting further away from the US sphere of influence. India is asserting its status of an emerging economic power with increased geopolitical appetites. And Russia is pushing from the other side as well. As we know, it's mostly about the natural resources of the region, and access to the trade routes (oil and gas fields, pipelines, oil ports, etc). It's all about that. And the US is retreating, while Russia and China are actively stepping in.
During the Afghanistan war, the international public was notably fixated on the US efforts to strengthen its leading position in the region. But as is often the case with that region, the situation defies any prediction. In 2005 Uzbekistan decided to shut down the US military base, followed by Kyrgyzstan, who, under Russian pressure, also asked the US to leave. Despite the fact that the high price of the rent allowed the US to temporarily keep its military base in Manas, that option also turned out totally unreliable. During a joint press conference after the signing of the agreement with Kyrgyzstan, the president Atambayev again solemnly vowed that Kyrgyzstan will make the Americans leave the Manas base in 2014. And that they will very likely do, since the incredible cost of the US presence in Afghanistan is already costing Obama a lot. So he has approved the withdrawal of the US troops from the country. Once this happens, Manas will no longer be a viable option for the US either. And with that, the last remaining US outpost in Central Asia is gone.
Russia has been preparing for this development for quite some time, actually. Its goal is very clear: to be the leading factor in controlling the matters of defense and geopolitics in the Central Asian region. On one side, the US is going to either voluntarily leave or be "asked" to get out, and on the other side Russia is already eager to step back into the opening gap. Probably hurrying to get in there before the Chinese. Russia still has one advantage over the Chinese - it has already been there, and it has never slashed its links with the ruling elites of the region. Not to mention the Russian legacy in terms of cultural and economic influence, linguistic and ethnic presence, etc.
Putin said on that press conference in Bishkek that, in light of the withdrawal of the "international" coalition in 2014, the situation in Afghanistan is unlikely to change for the better, so the presence of Russian military components in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is to remain "an important factor for stability in the region". In Dushanbe, he reiterated that Russia's bases would provide "a reliable guarantee for a stronger security and stability in Central Asia".
Most analysts point out that two visits within a month is a strong signal for the future shape of the Central Asian geopolitical configuration. This means that the world powers have entered a new stage in the struggle for Central Asia. For Russia, which has a long-term strategic agenda in the region plus ambitions of a recovering great power, Central Asia will always be a key basis for re-asserting the central role in the Eurasian affairs, and hence becoming a major player on the world stage.
Eurasia is often called the "global island" among the geopolitics circles. And like I said, Central Asia is of course its heart. Halford Mackinder 9the author of the Heartland Theory) has famously said about a century ago that whoever controls the Eurasian core, controls Asia, and thus the whole world. And little seems to have changed since then. An often underestimated region of the world, which is not as scandalous, loud and noticeable as the Middle East, Central Asia remains the main scene where the scramble for domination over the whole eastern hemisphere is played out. And Russia would be suicidal if it were to quit it. So it won't. As for the US, they might not be having too many options in that respect right now.
(no subject)
Date: 18/10/12 09:54 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/10/12 10:50 (UTC)