The Least and Most Violent States in the U.S.

[chessdev.livejournal.com]

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/06/11433311-the-most-and-least-safe-states-in-america?lite


The United States is more peaceful now than at any time in the past 20 years. Nevertheless, violence still cost the economy at least $460 billion in 2010, through a combination of lost productivity and direct costs, according to a new report published by the Institute for Economics and Peace. 24/7 Wall St. analyzed the report in order to identify the most and least peaceful states, as well as how much they spend on violence.

Louisiana, which is the least peaceful state, has the highest rate of homicide. Maine is the most peaceful state and has the lowest rate of violent crime.

Peace, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace, is a combination of the absence of violence and the institutions required to address it. In an interview with 24/7 Wall St., chairman and founder of the IEP, Steve Killelea explained, “In perfect states, there’d be no crime, therefore you’d have no need for police, nor would you lock anyone up.”

Most PeaceFul States: (Long list of stats in the article - left out here for brevity)
* Maine
* Vermont
* New Hampshire
* Rest of list here

Most Violent States:
* Lousiana
* Tennessee
* Nevada
* Rest of list here

[chessdev]
I know this has been seen before but It's ironic enough on several levels it was worth showing again with 2010 numbers:

some of the factors listed for violence include poverty rate, labor force participation, and income inequality.
The irony is that many of the peaceful states are "Blue States" and the most violent ones are "Red States" traditionally.

That the Republicans often advertise that their policies would help the economy, help people lift themselves out of poverty, that
looser gun control laws will reduce crime -- and yet, when you look at the results of states that follow these policies on State and Local government levels -- we see some of the worst results in the country.

Especially as the election marches closer, I think it would be a good reminder to take a look at the shape of areas that are
closest to enacting the policies being recommended for the country -- as they say, the proof is in the pudding.

Comments

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

That the Republicans often advertise that their policies would help the economy, help people lift themselves out of poverty, that
looser gun control laws will reduce crime -- and yet, when you look at the results of states that follow these policies on State and Local government levels -- we see some of the worst results in the country.

How much are they really following said policies, though? Nevada would be considered quite "liberal" in the way it handles a variety of issues. New Hampshire more conservative. Etc etc.

Of course, the report tries to find answers to those questions, and pretty much nukes its relevance with this point:

To [identify environments that suggest high violence], the Institute for Economics and Peace considered 42 additional sets of data in five categories -- education, health, economic opportunity, civics and demographics, community and social capital -- to identify factors that may cause, be caused by or correlated with violence and high levels of enforcement.

The correlation between poverty/economics and crime is long-debunked (http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/12/28/144390601/crime-keeps-falling-despite-a-recession-but-why). As supposed income inequality has risen (or maybe it's merely more proof that it isn't a factor), crime has declined. The correlation isn't there.

This is like the WHO health care thing all over again - a stacked report that has a conclusion, and then tries to find a way to massage the facts in order to justify it - in this case, by picking and choosing indicators they believe create violence.

[chessdev.livejournal.com]

How much are they really following said policies, though?

Come on dude - that's a stretch. The same constituencies that are trying to pass legislation on a *Federal* level are not going to pass legislation and policies right where they live!?!


and no - the correlation between poverty/economics has NOT been long debunked.
First your "long debunked" article is only several months old

Second, part of the decline in crimes in your article was NOT people trying to commit crimes less, but that
technology has made committing those crimes harder -- better security on cars, credit cards, personal info, etc...
Not eliminated, but decreased

The article you list also acknowledges it may be an issue of reporting -- there are fewer officers to respond to incidents and report them, NOT that the occurrences have gone down.

You should read your own link before you post it as a refutation -- it doesnt say what you claim it says.

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Come on dude - that's a stretch. The same constituencies that are trying to pass legislation on a *Federal* level are not going to pass legislation and policies right where they live!?!

Not always, no. It's an unfortunate reality of the difference between state and federal governments.

There's simply not enough data being presented to sustain the point. I'm only somewhat versed in my own state's myriad of laws, and I'm supposed to simply assume that all red states are alike in their legislation? Please.

and no - the correlation between poverty/economics has NOT been long debunked.
First your "long debunked" article is only several months old

Yes, it's a recent article. The data? Long debunks the common wisdom.

Second, part of the decline in crimes in your article was NOT people trying to commit crimes less, but that
technology has made committing those crimes harder -- better security on cars, credit cards, personal info, etc...
Not eliminated, but decreased

You...you mean that there are successful crime deterrents?!? That people are not so desperate when times are bad that they won't go to any lengths?

That's the argument in favor of the common wisdom - that people turn to crime because there's no other option. Clearly, that's not the case.

The article you list also acknowledges it may be an issue of reporting -- there are fewer officers to respond to incidents and report them, NOT that the occurrences have gone down.

Except that's factually incorrect (http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/csllea08.pdf).

You should read your own link before you post it as a refutation -- it doesnt say what you claim it says.

You should worry less about the editorializing in news reports and more about the data.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

He does have one solid point: there are pretty clear cases where you've not demonstrated local politics lines up with your presumption. NH in particular does stand out as a clear outlier on most of these issues. We do permitted concealed carry and unpermitted visible carry (on foot, need a permit for carry in a vehicle), and where we do require a license it's all of $10 for 4 years. we have fairly limited police forces and terrible social safety nets compared to most states. Those social safety net problems are even worse when you consider that we also have a relatively high cost of living compared to the South, who have similarly poor safety nets to us. We have extremely low tax burdens, with no state sales or income tax, and one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country (5.2% currently, it peaked at under 7% at the height of the recession - compare to MA's 6.9%). Hell, we only recently passed a law requiring seatbelt use and motorcycle helmets. The only place we're really liberal is on social issues, and even there we've got a bit of a split personality. We currently have a medical marijuana bill that may well pass over a veto, and were the first state to legalize gay marriage without a threat from the courts. At the same time, we've got some of the more restrictive abortion laws in the nation.

So how do you explain New Hampshire's apparent success under largely conservative policies?

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Also, unsurprisingly, I can't find the actual study being discussed here, simply interviews, so I'm going off of a biased MSNBC report that's working off of some AOL offshoot. Would love to see the real thing.

[chessdev.livejournal.com]

Well that's a nice fallacy -- so because of the link which uses actual data and NOT an opinion piece,
you're going to try to discount it out of hand??

That's just a bit disingenuous there dude.

[fornikate.livejournal.com]

http://www.visionofhumanity.org/unitedstatespeaceindex/2012/

[fornikate.livejournal.com]

The correlation between poverty/economics and crime is long-debunked.

No, it isn't. It really really isn't.

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

I mean, shit, that notion doesn't even pass the famous libertarian smell test!

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

Sure.

[dwer.livejournal.com]

the article you link to about debunking the connection between poverty and crime doesn't.

[politikitty.livejournal.com]

Ick. These are the sort of fake news stories that make my skin crawl. They point out that Maryland has the second highest Murder rate, but somehow is peaceful enough in every other respect to get out of the top ten? Really?

The violent areas in many of those states are urban centers that haven't voted Republican in their life.

The common theme I see among the peaceful states isn't liberalism. New Hampshire and Utah pretty much prove that. But they're homogenous communities, which lowers conflict. Yay for... WASPiness?

[jonathankorman.livejournal.com]

I'm looking forward to seeing a headline saying New Study Shows Causes of Crime are Complicated and Hard to Figure Out.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

I agree these stories are bothersome -- the partisan instinct is pretty strong in most of us and simple narratives get hung on these as quickly as possible. The sociologist in me finds data about trends and clusters interesting, but the media bungles them about as often as they bungle stories on complicated scientific questions as well.

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

The one thing that really isnt a problem here is that murder rates dont ditectly equate to overall violence rates.

[di-glossia.livejournal.com]

I'm slightly confused as to how they're deciding where to rank the states since several have higher percentages in one area than the states that rank lower. I'd be very interested to see how major cities play into this since Nevada has Las Vegas (metropolitan population ~2 million) and Reno (~700,000), Tennessee has Nashville (~1.6 million), Louisiana has Baton Rouge (~800,000) and New Orleans (~1.2 million), while Maine has...Portland, population less than 67,000. It would stand to reason that more metropolitan areas would have higher crime rates. States with lower metropolitan populations, smaller major cities, and a government more lax in regards to the penal system would likely have a lower rating. Incarceration, police per 100,000, and cost of violence has too much to do with government and the justice system in each particular state to be used as an accurate measure of peace.

Regardless, the most peaceful and the least peaceful states? Both have Republican governors.

[curseangel.livejournal.com]

Maine and Vermont are just very peaceful because there are so few people that a) it takes too much effort to go out and maim or kill someone since they probably live miles away and b) you can always just take your aggravation out on a sheep.

I swear I'm just kidding. /has lived in both states *shudders*

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

I'd like a list of the ten most violent urban centers in the USA.

Then I would like to know the last time any of them were controlled by the Republican Party.

[nevermind6794.livejournal.com]

That's odd. I'd rather know the statistically significant factors that can account for the higher crime rates, such as geography or demographics. Different strokes, I guess.

[enders-shadow.livejournal.com]

Michael Bloomberg was an R. So was Rudy.

[mrbogey.livejournal.com]

Why should St. Tammany Republicans be blamed for the failures of Orleans Democrats?

[chessdev.livejournal.com]

and?

There are multiple factors listed in the analysis - so pointing out any single 1 factor isnt enough information either way.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Gee, Southern states are violent? Well, what does one expect from the variety of US culture which has a tradition of posing under people's strung up burned corpses? Such things malform and mutilate the conscience in the long term. Add to that the Southern tendency to mistake braggadocio for actual manliness and the inability of Southerners institutionally to change until they've got an RPG aimed at their faces, well........and then when we factor in the alcohol culture, the obsession and fetishization of violence and all that.......

The only on that surprised me was Nevada. I'dve thought their sex crime rate would be over their violent crime rate.

[light-over-me.livejournal.com]

New Hamphire is a swing state, technically.