The drowning country: a case of climate migration

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

[Error: unknown template video] [Error: unknown template video]

Things are looking desperate for Kiribati, the tiny island nation in the Pacific. The government is negotiating with Fiji to purchase lands on an island and gradually move their population there, before the rising tides have completely swept away their country because of climate change.

Kiribati has about a hundred thousand people and that may not sound like a big deal, but given the size of those countries (Fiji has 0.8 million people) this looks like a massive exodus indeed. For years the atolls of Kiribati are experiencing rising waters, now a large part of their settlements suffering from periodic floods. Some of the 32 islands of the archipelago are already effectively gone.

If the negotiations are successful, this could be the first climate migration in modern times. Of course, migrations have occurred often in the past between the Pacific islands. But this is something unprecedented in size and consequences, especially in modern history.

The flooding of the islands is not the only problem, though. The saltifying process has brought an enormous problem with fresh water shortages, too. The other problem is that Kiribati does not really have a strong economy, most of its income comes from fish export and some tourism, and they would be in enormous debt if they are to purchase land in another country. But they might have run out of options at this point.

The president Tong is doing his best to persuade Fiji to sell them land on the island Vanua Levu (the 2nd largest in Fiji) where the exiled nation could be hosted. He is smart enough to not opt for advising his people to save themselves separately as they deem appropriate and disperse his nation, but instead he has adopted a national strategy. He says he does not want the Kiribati people to be mere refugees in a foreign country, where they would be seen as second-class people, and potentially suffer from abuse and exploitation. He wants to grant them a decent life. So he has started a qualification program that would raise their skills and make them a valuable asset to their new hosting society, a skilled labour force that could contribute to the Fijian economy instead of hanging on its neck like a burden.

There have been other ideas for salvation in the past, like building artificial islands... but the global financial crisis has made it impossible because that would be too expensive. Now the only option left is to find a new place to move to, before the tides have swallowed their country.

And that is not the only country finding itself in such trouble due to climate change. The Maldives have had this issue for many years, and the 2004 tsunami served as a red light.

Comments

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

I reiterate my UN memorandum (http://t-p-nonsense.livejournal.com/68826.html). I'm sure Greece has some islands it can dispose of for cash.

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

There might be a little logistic problem... It is a long way.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

OK, what about Australia? The Aussies have enormous empty spaces just waiting to be developed.

[paedraggaidin.livejournal.com]

This is all a lie of course. There's no such thing as global warming. The oceans aren't rising. That's a hippie communist myth used by Christ-hating eco-terrorists to further their goal of turning America into a godless socialist hell. It's...it's probably North Korea's fault. Or Iran's. Those pesky Iranians, with their nookyular weapons and oil and sharia law, look what they're doing now, they're sinking WHOLE COUNTRIES because Allah told them too!

THIS MEANS WAR AMIRITE?

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

And yet people still deny that climate change exists. Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

And even if they kinda-sorta accept with half a mouth that climate change exists, there's the next argument: BUT WE DIDN'T CAUSE IT! IT'S CYCLICAL! IT'S THE SUN SPOTS! OR SOMETHING! ERGO, THERE'S NOTHING THAT CAN BE DONE! SO LET'S KEEP SHITTING ALL OVER THE PLACE, WE CAN'T HELP IT ANYWAY!

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

I know these are stupid questions but indulge me...

If we assume that humans are to blame for climate change, should we (humanity) endevour to hold our planet's climate in a static state? IE is maintaining the status quo really our best possible outcome?

If yes, what is the cost of maintaining a static climate be in human terms?

Are those costs greater or lesser than the cost of mitigation by other means? (migration, irrigation, bulding levies, etc...)

Could those resources be better spent elsewhere? If given the choice between locking the climate in it's current state and eliminating malaria or world hunger which do you choose?

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

An argument that neglects that if the coastline moves 100 miles inland because of solar cycles a shitload of people still die regardless. But then this is IMHO the scientific equivalent of feeding trolls.

[mrbogey.livejournal.com]

Kiribati is an island chain that is essentially flat with the Pacific. Anthropogenic or not, their existence on those islands could not have lasted forever as is.

Climates do change without people dumping CO2 into it.

Hell, if anything, the biggest climate changes I've seen have been from localized events like deforestation. Because that affects humidity and wind patterns. CO2 being a major villain. Still ain't buying it.

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

So now that we've established that CO2 isn't the culprit, care to enlighten us about the true reason for the rise of the sea levels?

[rimpala.livejournal.com]

Don't they know global warming doesn't exist, it still snows right? *sarcasm*

[kayjayuu.livejournal.com]

Argh. As usual on the weekends, off to work. But can I drop a link for discussion sake? Let me know if this is allowed.

Kiribati on the move, but not sinking (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/09/kiribati-on-the-move-not-sinking/)

One line commentary: Are the oceans rising, or is the atoll deteriorating?

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

That is an interesting read. I think coral atolls are capable of responding to sea level fluctuations over the course of a sufficiently long period of time. The problem with archipelagos like Kiribati is that these ecosystems are natural, and they are not designed in a way that they could cope with drastic changes in sea level that are caused by non-natural effects. Simply said: yes, corals can grow; no, they cannot grow fast enough in this case. Which is why this one is sinking underwater.

As for your short question, are sea levels rising? I would say yes, and the evidence keeps piling on:



Global average sea level rose at an average rate of around 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year over 1950 to 2009 and at a satellite-measured average rate of about 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year from 1993 to 2009 (source (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5985/1517)), which is an increase on earlier estimates (source (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains1.html#1-1)). Granted, there is more data needed to verify that the increased rate corresponds to the underlying long-term trend (source (http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2009/climate-change-sea-level)).

Further, two factors are contributing to the observed rise of sea levels: thermal expansion and the contribution of land-based ice due to increased melting (sources: #1 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-5-1.html) & #2 (http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/013.htm#b4)).

The argument for an explicitly anthropogenic warming contributing to the sea level rise has emerged in the second half of the 20th century (sources: #1 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-3-4.html), #2 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains1-3.html) & #3 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch9s9-es.html)).

And the trend is expected to continue for centuries (source (http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12782&page=245)). In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that during the 21st century, sea level will rise another 18 to 59 cm, but we have to say that these numbers do not include "uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedbacks nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow" (source (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains3-2-1.html)). Although IPCC refrained from projecting an upper limit of the total rise, a 1 m rise is within the range of the projections (sources: #1 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains3.html) & #2 (http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12782&page=243)).

In some of the more long-term projections, melting ice sheets could result in a total fise of 4-6 m or more worldwide (sources: #1 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spm.html) & #2 (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spmsspm-c-15-magnitudes-of.html)).

In a nutshell, as science works in most cases, when most data poins toward a single direction, it warrants making conclusions and building a theory that then gets tested, while taking in consideration the possibility that the theory might need adjustments or substitution with a better working one. The non-scientific approach is to dismiss the entire issue outright and say that there is no problem at all.

[nairiporter.livejournal.com]

Actually I second Htpcl's semi-serious sentiment. :-)
Moving to Fiji would only postpone the problem for the time when Fiji will be facing the same thing. And it would put a big social pressure on both nations.

There must be other places in the region that would be a better host for Kiribati. I am aware that in their desperation they might not have a lot of time to seek for other options, but I'm sure in the long-term future they might consider places like Australia, or Papua New-Guinea (forgive me, I am not very familiar with the political dynamics of the Pacific).

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Or maybe Hawaii? Perhaps it's time for the great people of America to demonstrate their generosity by donating an island to the people of Kiribati when they are in the direst of needs?

[lai-choi-san.livejournal.com]

they would be in enormous debt if they are to purchase land in another country

No problem. Apparently, there is plenty of global warming deniers who would accept to switch.

[rimpala.livejournal.com]

Geez, how the heck did they manage to build a city?

[chron-job.livejournal.com]

Who knew that Erik the Viking was a Global Warming allegory :)

[the-rukh.livejournal.com]

Well you know, survival of the fittest and all. If they couldn't buy themselves another island in the Caymens they don't deserve to live.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Wonderful post, and I thought you would find this map very informative.

[whoasksfinds.livejournal.com]

do you have one of those for australia?

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Oh P.S. You may find this informative too.

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

Everyone move to Nevada! =)

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

Something interesting I found out is that the "ti" is pronounced like an "s" in English, so the name sounds like Kiribas not KiribaTEE.

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

The Wikipedia article on Kiribati seems to agree with this. Interesting!